Good Monday, everyone. Bitterly cold air is starting off a wicked week of winter weather across our part of the world. We have two snow systems on the way this week, with the potential for a decent sized storm to impact our region by Friday. Let’s get into it.
Temps to start the day are near zero with wind chills approaching -10 for some areas. This is dangerously cold air and similar numbers will show up Tuesday morning. In between, highs will only reach the teens today.
This brings us to our first snow maker that arrives late Tuesday night into Wednesday. I will have a first call map out for this one later today. The models continue to show a nice snow event with this system for much of the region.
The GFS…
The European Model…
The Canadian…
You will notice how the snow begins to fade a bit as it moves into eastern Kentucky. My initial thoughts on snowfall from this is a widespread 1″-3″ with some 4″ amounts possible somewhere in the west or central parts of the state. I hope to get the first call map out this afternoon.
The next storm is loaded with moisture and the models are surprisingly in decent agreement to start the week. Here’s the GFS from Thursday night through Saturday…
The Canadian (different site and color codes) is very, very similar…
Both take one low into east Tennessee before transferring the energy into a monster storm along the east coast. Taken verbatim, both models indicate some rain, ice and a lot of snow for our region. They are also VERY windy looking.
The European Model is just a bit south from it’s earlier run…
That southward trend bears watching in the coming days. If there is a way for this system to have little impact on our weather… it would be by going too far south. I don’t think that happens at this point.
Snowfall maps from the various computer models from now through Sunday
GFS
Canadian…
European Model…
Let me stress something… these are computer forecast models that change from run to run. They are not a forecast from me! I know we live in the social media age where people share things without telling the full story. That’s the world we live in, but I’m not going to appoint myself as the facebook police. Other weather people get way to invested in worrying about what social media or everyone else is saying. I don’t have time for that… I’m too busy actually doing my job in tracking the weather and giving you guys a look at all the tools we use. 🙂
I will have updates through the day, so check back. Your temp tracker for the biter cold…
Stay warm and take care.
What is interesting is that there are now signs that point to another potential major snow system behind Friday’s system that we’re already tracking somewhere in the eastern US again. LOTS to track in the coming weeks, and KY might get pounded with any one of these systems.
Thanks for all you do CB! I love this blog and all of the information you share with us. Very informative. Watching all of the winter possibilities is fun too! Have a great day!
Thanks for the update Chris. We appreciate what you do. And you are the very best! Stay warm today everyone!
I’ve been following this blog since the day it started and Chris has said thousands of times “THESE ARE NOT FORECASTS” and yet people will read the blog, call their buddy and say it’s going to snow 20 inches this week. And panic ensues and Chris, or any other MET willing to share the model data, gets blamed for putting out a forecast that they specifically said wasn’t a forecast. It’s comical, by the end of the day my wife will say so and so said Chris Bailey said…and off we go.
The psychology of it fascinates me.
my question is this: if these are not forecasts and models change with every run > then why put them up, why even bring up the subject; my opinion, this site wants the talk, wants the visits.
Or it might be called ‘a heads up’, come on, I know you have heard of it, even you have to make plans I bet, and you want to know should I plan to…or not. I think you really like coming here because deep down, you want the truth….
http://www.goodquotes.info/memorable-movie-quotes-a-few-good-men.html
Then perhaps stop visiting if that is your opinion? 🙂
The whole point of the blog is CB posting his thoughts on the fly as the systems get closer.
shew, have I done something to you … you constantly bash me and i have only been on here a few weeks. do you treat everybody that comes on like that ? if so, i feel sorry for your pathetic life if that is all you have to do. I just asked a simple question and some people on here think that I have committed a serious crime of questioning the high and might !! BS if you ask me.
I don’t recall Bubba every bashing anybody. It seems you are the one bashing him based on your latest response
And some people are very defensive of Chris when his forecasts or thoughts don’t pan out but not all.
Greene hate me.
Pathetic life? Who’s attacking who?
It’s the tone, Sweetie!
If you’re new, then you don’t understand the way this blog works. Chris dosn’t hive his final anf conclusive thoughts on the the true sbow potential until 48 hours before. This blog always focuses on the present weather and his thoughts on the 7-21 day outlook.
And my question is this: Why do you visit this site? I want to see the possibilities different models are suggesting in a nice condensed format. And I love how he explains what we’re seeing and how certain models digest the various aspects of weather better than others. Remember, you come here by choice….
good point Jude … i just asked a question, sure didn’t mean to offend the herd.
It’s the tone, Sweetie…see a pattern?
It’s called a weather blog…weather talk if u want plain nontopical weather forecast listen to your local radio station ..not being mean or sarcastic just plain truth
I know right! And if it doesn’t happen, people will sometimes LASH out at Chris or other mets. The psychology is interesting. I think it makes them feel a little better because they are so hurt they missed their snow, they need some way to vent their frustration. I’ve had my share of that over the years when we missed our snow to the north south east or west. I wanted to BLAME something or someone…
I’m sensing a Threat and Alert mode(s)…sounds like the title of a Tom Clancy novel
If Wednesday pans out, snow usually begets snow for these back to back type systems. The models though can be no smarter than the people ones 😉
Wednesday 2-4″ and Friday 4-7″ if everything works out.
Seems reasonable. If the mid week pans out, Friday could be interesting. As long as no ice, I’m good for hit or miss 🙂
East and north east seems for now the best shot though.
Of the country
Thelma Lou is as nervous as a long tailed cat in a roof full of rocking chairs. The nws has inserted the dreaded “i” word for the Lake Cumberland area, actually forecasting more periods of “i” than of snow it would appear. We don’t want any of that!
Looks like Wednesdays system is dying or DOA by the time it gets to the Hunt/Ashland area. Hope you get some decent accu. from Lex. West. As for Friday, I am hopeful, but also noticed the typical wedge of rain/lower snow totals showing up in East KY and WV WV.
Indeed, fun times this week. Rodger loves seeing more than one snow maker on the table. Grocery store owners love it too! Rodger in Dodger
Yes; if these storms come close to panning out; it will be panic at the disco (grocery) come Tuesday evening.
10 in Carrie of knott co with a very light dusting on the ground. Got slick in places in east ky last night be it avoided my location somehow
All good stuff! Key was the comment about the Euro tracking South. Said doesn’t think w happen but bears watching. If it does track South then little to nothing for the weekend storm. Regardless nice to see the pattern turning active. Just a matter of time before we see something more measurable IMO. Models make it all fun to watch that is for sure!
No freezing rain. Anything but freezing rain. Thank you in advance, Mother Nature.
Let’s hope we receive a big snow this week! Our chances sure look good. Bots!!!!!
If its starts out as rain in eastern ky. and is forecast to switch to snow that rarely ever happens. I’ve seen maps like Chris has up many times and we usually end up with virtually no snow. However, I use to like snow ,but when you lose power for a 1-2 weeks thats not for me. I’m hoping for all rain in my neck of the woods…excluding ice.
Be nice to be surprised, but just not seeing this panning out for the Tri-State area (southern KY, Northern TN, SWVA). I’m expecting the usual rain event with a skiff of flurries or freezing drizzle to end the show for Wednesday. Friday is too far out to even consider at this point.
My slope-shredding clan and I will take anything that paints the landscape snowy-white!
Woooohooooo!
It’s interesting that GFS is sticking to its guns about the ice/sleet possibility for the late week storm. This latest model run looks very similar to the runs from a few days ago.
Let’s hope CB does not start adding “ice” to his word cloud more in posts this week 😉
General Fence Sitter model is feeling spunky Time will tell.
That’s because it’s picking up on the low level cold. Snow on the ground. It sees the warm air uploft that’s why it show freezing rain. But to much snow on the ground Wednesday I’m just afraid it will keep the storm south and miss us all. Which is what the euro has been saying
I would have thought for this type of system flow it would draw in more with snow on the ground. CB’s posts should be interesting if Wednesday has decent snow.
“…and giving you guys a look at all the tools we use.”
So very much appreciated CB. And really like your thoughts on things as well.
I guess these storms are looking a little more solid to some. I notice them jump on and off the forecasts other places. Seems my area forecasts have went from <1 inch to nothing to < 1-3 inches and around that for Wednesday for the last few days. Seems like changes in the GFS are the driver for that many times so they must be relying more on that model than anything.
Also, the Friday storm is now forecast for 3-5 inches in my area. That storm has been in and out of the extended forecasts a few times. <1 inch to nothing to 3-5 inches as of now.
And I know these are extended forecasts and change but they literally change with each new set of model runs and in between during any one day. Much better here. I like seeing the models (helps explain why other forecasts jump around like they do) and get an idea of what could be a possibility and getting a solid forecast when things are as set as weather can be.
A real living breathing monster is taking form for someone in the east..Virginia looks to be ground zero at the moment..Have seen some models spit out 30-40 inches ..Will be interesting what models show in the next few days..
Wow! Looks like the old days with a bunch of posts. I love this time of year for the blog.
Thanks for all the cool models Chris. Maybe some of this will come to fruition!
Since everyone likes snow maps here’s the nam for wed..
http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160118/a96fab78e0dcf67912fb6c137648acd6.jpg
Thanks for update Chris. Can’t wait to see first call for snow. Bring on the SNOW!!!!!
There is a snow totals map being shared on FB that is Kentucky weather centers map, that shows my area up to 14 inches of snow. I haven’t seen Chris post any snow fall maps yet. Just wondering if someone is putting an old map of his out there
He has posted 1 map this season and that was last week.
Probably an old map..I’ve seen it on Facebook several times
And the other mets posted the same maps and did not pan out very well. We need the other mets to disagree with CB. Those are the ones that usually have the best chance to pan out 😉
Unless ice. All the mets nail that.
It’s not an old map. His maps clearly have “First Call For Snowfall” or the sort in text across the top. It’s a picture of ONE of the model runs that he posted. People are taking it out of context. Maybe they just want to be popular for the day and see how many likes they can get.
Seen numerous snowfall forecasts on FB. It is people sharing last years maps. New NAM spitting out close to a 4″ event for a huge portion of the state for the Wednesday system. Wouldn’t be surprised to see snowfall totals on the low side for S-SE KY for the Thursday – Friday system. Almost all models advertising a warm nose in the area during the heavier precipitation. Still a long ways out though. Anxious for every new CB update. I think it is safe to say almost all of KY will see some snow this week. Stay warm.
Local met in Louisville is saying 2-5 inches for Wednesday.
Thanks Mr. Bailey for ALWAYS showing various maps…very thorough. I know where to find my weather information!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011812/gfs_asnow_neus_25.png
GFS on tropical tidbits for the Friday-Sat..
Looks like DC gets a good one..Northern Ky..
Exciting times here at the blog! Thanks Chris for sharing your knowledge maps thoughts and most of all your time with us. Everyone don’t forget the animals and pets.
Just double checked but nws is giving temps above freezing each afternoon Wednesday thru Sunday. Doesn’t seem to be a great formula for keeping anything on the ground.