Good afternoon, gang. Bitterly cold temperatures have Kentucky in the deep freeze through Tuesday. From there, we focus on a snow system for Wednesday and a much bigger system for Friday and Saturday.
The system moving in on Wednesday will be a snow maker that fades the farther east it gets across the region. The pinpointing the axis of heaviest snow is the challenge we face over the next few days. As of now, that axis may set up across parts of western and southern Kentucky.
The Hi-Res NAM snowfall forecast shows this well…
The GFS…
Notice that quick drop off across the northeastern part of the state. That’s also reflected with my First Call For Snowfall map…
That’s just the first call and will be adjusted as we get closer. Given the potential for 4″+ of snow for some, I flirted with upgrading to a Winter Storm Threat with this. I still may pull the trigger at some point today.
Once that exits, we have no time to waste before tracking a developing winter storm. That would impact our weather starting Thursday night and lasting through Saturday. The GFS continues to be very impressive with this system…
That model shows rain, ice, snow to heavy snow and a lot of wind. If that were to happen as the model suggests… It would be quite the storm around here.
The GFS snowfall forecast through Saturday…
This storm is just a little more than 3 days from potentially impacting our weather, so it’s not like we’re looking at something a away. With each passing run that doesn’t show drastic changes, confidence grows. That said, there is still a way this storm doesn’t have a huge impact on our weather… by staying just to our south and east.
I will likely upgrade to full-blown threat mode with this later tonight.
While we have all this to track… I’m picking up on a similar storm that could threaten the region by Monday of next week.
I will update things later today and will have the very latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. See you there.
Stay warm and take care.
Thanks for the updates Chris!
Looks like I might regret not purchasing a snow blower during the Christmas sale 🙁 Just thought all the snow last year whats the chances of KY having that much snow two years in a row!
If all things are truly cyclical, we may be getting back into the pattern of old… it’s funny because I can remember back in the 80’s and 90’s my dad always talked about buying one but didn’t until after the “Dusting” in the late 90’s. It never really got much use after that storm until last year!!!
Just told my hubby to get the snow blower out of the shed and get her ready for the week!
Thanks for keeping us in the loop CB!
Anyone else in the Lexington area see the ice crystals falling late this morning? It was really neat! Glittery. At first I thought I was seeing blow off from rooftops, got into the open and could see it there as well… Stopped once the clouds got through here. Pretty neat stuff.
Diamond dust…I saw it once in January 1994 when temperatures were well below zero and calm wind
lol. Living our lives one model run at a time.
Should be a title to a country song! Lol
Thanks again Chris. I hope the front comes a little farther east. We border Laurel county and they are in 2-4.The fun is beginning if you put the site into alert mode. Bring on the SNOW!!!!!
Will be interesting how the system trends. We could be mainly mix before the main snow moves in, or a pretty significant hit of frozen stuff.
Whatever the case, looking like east / north east might get whacked.
Well down here in east tn. Looks like a snow to rain event Wednesday.. Hopefully the weekend storm will give us a nice snow event here..
So is Ashland in the 1-2 range on this map or just 1 inch range? Lol
I think Ashland is with Huntington WV in the 1 or less area. Probably look forward to something like yesterday or last Tuesday. I am cautiously hopeful for Friday, will have to wait another day or two to get really excited. By the way Thanks Chris, you were on to these systems before anyone else.
On the Wednesday system, do we have to worry about losing accumulations do to low due points???
Looking forward to our first real chance here in our part of the state, we have not been able to put a good dusting down yet, but it looks like that may be changing.
Grasp this week closely snow fans! It’s rare to see Kentucky in line for two moderate/heavy winter precip events in the same week (and maybe 3??!!). Wow! Hoping against the southeast shift; ironically, we’re usually concerned about a northwest shift. Rodger in Dodger!
Personally hoping for a south east shift means more snow for me.
Andy, where do you live?
Barbourville
Corbin/Keavy here
ITS TIME THE BLOG flips the switch to OVERLOAD MODE!!! business fixing to pick up!!!! going be doing Video blog from the Redneck Bunker on facebook during the storm thru Saturday..
You’ll change your mind in two days.
Whatever happens, seems Kentucky or Tennessee might get a quickish mix followed by significant to big snow and then it would get more wild when it makes the hockey stick turn up the north east.
System has to exist first though beyond the models 😉 🙂
Probably accurate LoL
I’m ready for the first ride on the rolocoaster this year!
He started way high on top this time.
Ready for the snow
Thanks for the update Chris. Told you it looked like a busy week ahead! Buckled in and ready to go!
I love the excitement this time of year brings.
Thanks for all you do, Chris.
Thanks for the updates CB! Looking exciting for this next week. Have the sleds and snow shovels ready.
As the great philosopher “The Rock” used to say …”Just Bring It”
Fun to see all the regulars back! (Myself included) Love this blog and those who post here!!
WW
Looks like the snow dome will be making a return to SE KY, unless the track of the low changes…which could and more than likely will happen.
Exciting times for sure! Love seeing the regulars back on here from years past that I followed since the blog began when I was a kid!
Such an interesting week of tracking winter weather in Kentucky for sure.
Anyone know what the most recent models are showing?
Giving all rain for us here in Harlan County on Thursday (NWS out of Jackson)
Here’s a link to the weather prediction center’s probability of snow within the 3 day window – this is day 3 so this will definitely change…but it’s interesting to see this already!
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
It doesn’t show anything? Lol
What he is meaning is that they already have a slight chance for 4” which means the WPC is pretty high on the chances for a decent snow from this far out.
How do you know that snow is in the forecast? Watch the grocery stores and watch the number of comments at Kentuckyweathercenter.com go up! It’s a sure thing!!
Thelma Lou says the only thing that’s for sure right now is that nothing’s for sure! With that being said….what are the odds daytime highs through Sunday turns whatever snow falls into mush or is the nws playing the highs to high?
NWS seems to lower temps as we get closer to event. They’ve lowered temps for London 5 degrees through the whole event, with much more mention of snow, along with a mix. Yesterday, it was just some wrap around snows at the very end. Also, if the whole state has 1-4 inches of snow on the ground, that may keep temps down another couple of degrees during the Friday event as well. Either way, it’s interesting. Enjoy!
Rodger sees that the Paducah NWS going conservative with both the Wed and Fri events in their afternoon discussion. Holding off on advisories for now. They like every chance to procrastinate they can get! Rodger in Dodger
Roger I live in union co.it seems paduch always at modest when it comes to snow events. Don’t have a clue lol !!;
Union County. Isn’t that where the biker rally Little Sturgis is located?
Just watched Chris’s forecast. Sounds like some snow days!!!Friday sounds interesting. I hope for another old school snow again this year.
GFS looks awfully close to being an ice storm for Eastern Ky..
Question for the weather gurus:
Does Wednesday’s snow look to be more of a hit or miss type snow squall for the Ashland area like last weeks; or, is it a system that will be a solid band of snow for Ashland that could bring 1-2 inches? I just wonder because I’m not much of a fan of the squalls. Any help?
Solid band situation.
Charleston WV NWS still going with mostly rain Friday with the typical backside light snows. I hope they are wrong.
Weather channel has 80 percent chance for snow Thursday night with a 100% chance Friday & Friday night & another 80 % for Saturday for my part of southern ohio. Looks like the people missing the snow on Wednesday storm is getting more with Fridays storm As of now
I’m NE my so it looks like I’m.in the same boat as you are
Chris hoping for an update soon.