Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on where things stand with our upcoming winter weather. The afternoon model runs have shown no real changes to what they have been showing over the past few days.
The first system slides in here Wednesday as a snow maker. Western and southern parts of the state continue to look like the bullseye for the heaviest band of snow. My map from earlier still looks good, but I will make some changes later tonight.
The WPC is showing a slight risk for 4″+ snows across central and western Kentucky…
The developing winter storm threat for later this week continues to show up strongly on the computer forecast models. Look at this monster on the European Model…
Friday Morning-Saturday Morning
That’s a lot of wind with that system!!
Here’s the snowfall map from the same run…
The European Ensembles Average of 51 members…
The late day GFS held serve with a similar setup to what it’s been showing…
At the very start of the precipitation Thursday night and Friday morning, the models are hinting at Freezing rain and sleet before going to heavy snow. The GFS freezing rain accumulation map for Friday morning…
Let’s pretend for a second that is real… Throw snow on top of that with 30mph winds and that’s nasty.
The GFS and European Model are also showing a night of bitterly cold temps to follow Saturday night…
You would have to get a snow/ice pack for those numbers to happen.
Let me be clear… this possible winter storm is NOT set in stone by any means. I’m sharing computer model forecasts with you guys because that’s what we do here. The threat for a major winter storm impacting our region is certainly there and we need to pay close attention to how this evolves over the next few days.
I will update things later tonight. Stay warm and take care.
Thanks Chris, the ice is certainly not good! Bring on the snow..
I`m loving the European model for Shepherdsville Friday.
Thanks for update Chris. Hopefully a big snow is on the way, but no ice just SNOW.
Thank you for the update Chris. It will be an interesting four/five days in the Ohio Valley. I think one thing we can certainly mention, is there will be no rain for the northern half of the state with either system. It is just too bloody cold, and the snow from the Wednesday system will keep the warm air at bay. Even the NWS in Louisville has lowered the high on Friday down to 32F. Now if I could figure out why they have us at 37F on Thursday…
No WST until late tonight? I hope BG can in on some the big POTENTIAL snow for Friday.
IhopeBG can get in on some of the POTENTIAL snow for Friday.
Folks, the ingredients are THERE for a whopper of a SNOW event on Friday! Still three days to go, however, and that means a lot can change. The consistency of the models is encouraging though. Rodger in Dodger!
Well AccuWeather put out there call for snow Thursday night into Friday 6-9 inches and that will change 6-9 times between now and Thursday.
Link please.
Yes, link please!
AccuWeather not showing a snow map. I just went to there website type in the city you live in go to extended forecast hit whatever day your wanting to view. You can click day or night it should tell you what you’ll be getting in your particular area. Example: Louisville on Thursday night 3-6 and on Friday and additional 1-3 according to AccuWeather take that with a grain of salt. AccuWeather extended forecast are computer models driven.
I watched the blog for the Friday system and they were going by the models only. They were showing about 6 inches for Kentucky, then blowing up just off the coast of Virginia. Giving a blizzard to the east coast states.
shows 2-4 for Wednesday in my area nothing for the weekend system
Can someone see a foot between the two systems
Just for fun, one of the top GFS analogs I saw showed what could happen based on a storm system in 1996…The blizzard of ’96. One monster of a storm…over 18″ in parts of eastern Kentucky, nearly 4 feet in the mountains of West Virginia and western Virginia, and paralyzed major cities of the eastern seaboard.
But remember, this is the GFS… (sighs).
Mike S, SW Jefferson County looks to get a tad bit more snow than other parts of Jefferson County you might get a rare occurrence on Wednesday. lol
I’m definitely cheering for the Euro model! Completely NAILS the I-64 corridor on Friday.
In regards to the Wednesday system, what time is that expected to arrive in central KY? Is in a morning, afternoon or evening system? Thanks! 🙂
over night Tuesday early morning Wednesday according to TWC
One Louisville met said the Wednesday snow will appear at morning commute time.
will we get a foot of snow out of this
Um, Well – from what I can see, the Euro looks like 8 to 12 inches, maybe even more – but keep in mind, even though it’s 2016 , it’s still WAY to much to ask for a reliable model run 3 days out, so it could totally change.
tim here in athens ohio,looks as the wens storm will miss us but intellicast has friday 8-12in and now sat 5-8in. wow
How much snow for my back yard?
None to very much big. And you can quote me.
Come on snow! Live along the I-64 corridor. Looks exciting for us this week! We all know that things can change, but liking the consistency we are seeing thus far! BOTS!!!
At this time, veteran meteorologist Ron Howes of WTVF Nashville is indicating 1 to 3 inches snow and some sleet for Wed, especially as one goes north to the Kentucky line.
But NWS Nashville is still holding on to a chance of some freezing rain in addition to the snow.
Much rather have snow or sleet than freezing rain 😉 .
looks like a pounding here in upslopeland of WV…we r well overdue…local ski slope just opened recently
I am near Huntington. I don’t like the mention now of rain/sleet. I was afraid it would creep into the forecast. I almost always notice that little wedge of warmer air over E. KY and W. WV. I don’t think it is usually the big problem where you are that it is in my area.
Jimbo, I am.in greenup.and were typically 3-6 degrees colder than htown
I’m thinking someone is gonna have to be using candles this weekend…and I pray that doesn’t happen…but wind and snow/ice…not good
no not here but ur talking about the infamous donut hole ….its really kinda crazy but its real
It is certainly real. Take a look at some of the maps Chris posted. You will see that strip of rain and warmer air come up from SE KY into about the Hunt/Chas area. That happens a lot. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a lot of 34 degree rain, where I am.
I rather have the euro model over all the other models put together.
I think if we get to wednesday and the scenario keeps on playing out like it was showing today.
I think it will be a done deal.
Wow, so the forecasts on another site switched the forecast up a little (or a lot) for Friday-Saturday. The Friday forecast received a major boost to 5-8 inches for my area. Saturday is not at 5-8 inches. Was nowhere near this a little earlier today. Of course they have the Wednesday snow as <1 inch now and it was 1-3.
They are definitely holding steady with the temps though. Highs above freezing each day and then lows only slightly below. Holding on to the mid-40s for next week. Those will come down each day as we get closer I am sure. They always do.
It really is amazing to watch. So hard to get good predictions beyond 1-2 days in winter. Shows how hard it is for meteorologists in general. And then they have to provide a forecast to the public. Crazy.
The Louisville area Mets didnt even talk about the Friday system. They only talked about Wednesday and said they`ll talk Friday, after that one has past.
There’s a good reason on why that is. The Wednesday system will have a big influence on how the Friday system will play out.
0.25″ to 0.75″ ice followed by 30mph winds? The tree damage will be substantial.
I love it when my students use adjectives, but when Chris does … watch out! ;0)
I’m waiting for the “b” word to get thrown around for the Friday storm. Looks like the winds will meet the requirements.
I`m thinking a stronger low will bring in too much warm air aloft. We may see this as a freezing rain/sleet event in central and eastern Kentucky, changing to snow. With all snow around the I-64 area. Unless the Wednesday storm can put down enough snow to push the Friday system a little futher south, but not too far, then northern Kentucky maybe on the outside looking in.
This could potentially become a particularly bad situation for somewhere. .50 freezing rain, 6-12 inches of snow and 30 MPH wind sounds like a particularly harsh combination.
Chris just tweeted…
The new NAM rolling in has higher snow totals across the southern half of the state for Wednesday. #kywx
Some of my posts show up and some do not.
Hi Jason. Comments here are checked by an automod. If there are “bad” words, the post will be automatically deleted. This unfortunately even includes “bad word spellings” that are otherwise within other words. You may either have to choose other words or put something like dashes between the letters. For example,
Storm spotter c*l*a*s*s (or use storm spotter course)
D-i-c-k-s-o-n County, Tennessee
Hoping Wednesday’s snow totals aren’t reduced by the dreaded dry layer that can take forever to saturate. I know I’m not the only one here who has waited up for the snow to start only to fall asleep because it took so long for the moisture to finally kick in. If I was better at planning, I’d have a snow viewing party. Maybe get a propane patio heater, light the fireplace on the deck, mix up some spiked hot chocolate, toast s’mores and get ready to nowcast!
Thanks for the updates CB!
New drinking game – every time Chris says “corridor” you take a shot.
It will be fun to see how much snow we get this week! Hopefully in southern indiana we will receive more than a foot! Bots!!
Its currently snowing in Shepherdsville, lightly, but snowing.
By any chance has anybody seen the new snowfall map from the nam model.
After looking at the precip output through 48 hours, I would say from the southern Louisville metro and south, at least 3 – 5 inches, as this area is in the .25 – .50″ QPF zone. There is an area over south central KY along the TN border that is in a .50 – .75″ zone. If that is all snow, maybe 6″ plus depending on the ratio; or some mixing action keeping overall snow totals down. I have not seen the 00Z NAM Snow Map yet. Should be out any minute.
And; just as I post this, the 00Z NAM 84 hr Snowfall Map has come out. It is heavier snow for southern KY, and the NAM is picking up on the next storm out to the west of the state.
Note: The 00Z NAM Snow Map is using a 40″ scale.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays-40.php3?STATIONID=LVX
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016011900&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=26
Wow the new nam run is showing the possibility of an ice storm along the Ohio River. The low running through northern Tennessee.
Keep in mind the NAM overdoes the warm air advection. At one point, it had mostly rain for the Wednesday system because of this.
I love your expertise.
Interesting!
well ill say this as of now its a OLD SCHOOL Looking low Friday, the WRAPAROUND would be great for a fott of snow. Im like Bailey gotta wait couple more runs, but the way the last 2 winters have gone I say it will hit.
I am right there with you ROLO. It is a sure bet. Put 10 across on the Euro Ol Skool system working up the apps for me and 5 to show on the GFS.
Will be upgrading to a Winter Storm Threat for both systems.
ROCK N ROLL!!
Woo hop!!!!
AKA woo hoo!!! Stupid spell check….
So will there be a late night update? Thanks for all you do. New shovels and Ton of salt all ready to go to work.
Keep America trucking my friend.
Let us hope the first storm doesn’t set the table too far south for the second storm (if you want snow).
I sense a disturbance in the force. It was as if suddenly every grocery store became empty.
The blizzard of ’78? I thought that was just a legend.
It’s true. The 3′ snow drifts. The freezing wind. All of it.
!!!!!!!
Exciting stuff! Hoping for no ice for anyone, just a good “thumper” of a snow. The first Winter Storm Threat of the season has got my snow juices flowing even more than they already were!
No school Knox County tomorrow
Watching the blog and just caught the 10 o’clock news in Lex. CB doing a great job as usual and is being measured on TV. Don’t overlook Wednesday as a decent little snow maker and by then will have a much better handle on Friday. Northeast gonna get blasted that is for sure.
Awesome!
Here in Huntington, WV. Local news not predicting much in the way of snow for us. Hoping those snow clouds can squeeze at least a couple of inches of the fluffy stuff out for us.
Sadly I live in the donut hole. But All you KY snow weenies enjoy the storm headed your way.
I know what you are saying. Doesn’t look good for us in the tri-state donut hole. Locals are even depressing me talking about the Friday storm. Throwing out the term wintry mix just another way of saying rain around here.
Yes, wintry mix usually means rain, maybe sleet, for us.
Maybe one day we will get some snow lol
Marc Weinberg just said there is a bigger threat for accumulating freezing rain for Thursday into Friday.
All Knoxville mets on board with 1-3″ Wednesday for their viewing area spanning E TN and southern KY from Middlesboro to London.
Wonder if the early arrival of the Friday storm translates into more ice then snow? Guessing that might be the case deep ding upon your location. WW
Apologies for the typo! Hit the post button by mistake!
WINTER STORM WATCHES JUST ISSUED FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA FOR WED-THU.
snow and sleet up to 2-3″ expected..
I follow Chris Bailey and I follow DT on WxRisk. They were the ONLY two forecasters who nailed Superstorm Sandy.
Once again, I am watching you both VERY closely..
http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/972200489493876
Ughhh. 00z GFS appears very wet for a lot of KY if I am reading it right. Heavy rain to light snow.
Looks like a New England event. A lot can change though. Anxious to see what the euro does.
Looks like most of CKY and EKY will get hammered on Fridays storm.
Euro has the low tracking further south and deepening
Hope the euro is right. GFS appeared to give New England a blockbuster storm. Had the low really amplifying off the mid Atlantic coast. Warm nose really hurt KY. Like I said though, it is really early and the GFS has really struggled lately.