Good Tuesday, everyone. We have two winter storm threats highlighting the forecast as we roll through the rest of the week. The first storm rolls through on Wednesday and might be considered the appetizer to the bigger storm threat lurking for the end of the week.
Let’s start with the first system. Snow develops across western Kentucky Tuesday night and rolls eastward into Wednesday. This is going to put down some decent snows for parts of the region. My updated call for snowfall raises totals from my earlier map…
Areas in red are at risk for the most snow, with some areas potentially pick up close to a half foot. This is a widespread snowfall for the entire state that will likely cause many schools to shut down.
The arrival of the next storm is a littler earlier than what I was originally thinking. A nasty mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain develops late Thursday into Thursday night as our storm begins to take shape to our south. The initial low goes into east Tennessee and then transfers energy to the main low in the Carolinas on Friday. As that happens, a rapid switch to heavy snow is likely.
Winds are going to also be a major issue with a setup like this…
That’s the latest European Model and it most certainly has a major “wow” factor to it. Taken at pure face value… the European Model has a blizzard from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern states. Now, this doesn’t mean that’s what’s going to happen. I’m simply telling you what the model is showing. Other models have been similar in recent days.
The European snowfall forecast from now through Sunday…
That’s an absurd amount of snow being forecast from one storm… especially across parts of West Virginia and Virginia. 40″???
Am I ready to fully buy 100% stock in what the European Model is selling? Of course not, but it’s eye opening and deserves to be talked about as a possibility. It’s not like this is a week away… This storm starts impacting our weather late Thursday.
I made this map before the European came out…
This threat is for the POSSIBILITY of significant snow/Ice accumulations and high winds.
I will have multiple updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Thanks much Chris, I appreciate the info and the frequent updates. NWS RLX is only mentioning this in “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that hasn’t been updated since 4:15pm on Monday afternoon 🙁 Even their updated forecast discussions in the 1:10am “update” still refers to our current weather as “mostly sunny”. I realize these are model runs and not set in stone, but with weather, being prepared is for what may come is the key and without your detailed information I’d really be in the dark. Thanks for all you do! 🙂
Great googly moogly. Get some rest CB. Looks like a long week ahead.
Holy He** . I live in southern In I would like to get a 12-16 incher . Are those totals including the possible ice before ? Let’s get a monster going here . But no ice
OK – W O W
I’m guessing that *IF* this plays out like the Euro says, a lot of KY will be in the “deformation” zone, right? Or am I wrong?
Thanks 🙂
Help me… What’s a “deformation zone”? (Too early in the morning for me to Google…)
Deformation zone: Small area north of the low pressure area, difficult to predict, where heavy snow sets up. “Jackpot” if you’re a snow fan! Rodger in Dodger
Alrighty then. I am all in the dz! Right over my part of Richmond.
Deformation Zone is where heavy band of snow (usually a narrow band) sets up.
Got it. Thanks. I am rooting for the dz over my house!
My county is right on the line for greatest risk. Hope that changes- I want snow, snow, and snow!
Thanks for the updates Chris! I’m frequently checking in.
Twitter is down or I would be tweeting this at 3:30am: A band of light snow and flurries has developed in central Ky. A coating is possible out of this. Good sign for snow lovers this week? #kywx
Also… 6z NAM is even more widespread with the Wednesday snowfall. Suggests heavier totals hold together farther east.
Chris I don’t know how you get any sleep with all these updates..We really do appreciate all you do for us. But it wont hurt my feelings if you are wrong this week I really do hate the snow.
WOW! Thanks for all you do CB! Love the outlook/possibilities for our area.
CB, why the lack of heavier totals in SE KY just curious. Nearly all the models are showing a big bubble of lower snowfall totals In SE KY.
That is almost always the case. That bubble usually extends up to the Chas/Hunt. area of WV. For some reason there is a little strip of warmer air trapped over those areas during most storms. I hope this was going to be one of the rare ones to not tap that warm wedge. But it doesn’t look good right. BTW I’ve only ever heard one met. define it, Appy Wedge.
Should be App Wedgie. ,)
The “B” word was used as a possibility if the Euro is correct!
NWS in Jackson says 3-5 in the northern counties, 1-2 elsewhere for Thursday-Saturday. Saying too much warm air in place for significant snowfall. Specifically mentioned GFS in forecast discussion, so they must be putting a lot of faith into it. Still don’t see how a snowfall forecast could be made this early???
If Wednesday is the appetizer and Thursday/Friday is the main course, I wonder what … or when … dessert will be served?? Stay warm my friends!!
Looks like dessert may be served next Tues, looking at the model runs 🙂
Dag gonnit! Twitter is down. Hard to follow all my weather dudes with it down. Chris, if it stays down, please leave your latest thoughts on here. Thanks!
06z model runs look concerning for the I-64 corridor for Thursday into Friday
Concerning?? Like no snow of a lot??
As in an ice storm.
Yikes James I’m in Corydon IN that would not be good for us as it is a rural area.
Hope Mr. Ice stays away, but not looking good as of now.
Chris is a foot of snow a possiblity friday in the georgetown area?
Yeah anytime you through in freezing rain that goes over to heavy snow and wind. That spells all sorts of problems.
STORM getting stronger and stronger, meaning WARM AIR going get pylled up and ALOT of KY will get the shaft as far as big snow. this is going be a EPIC storm for the APPS and east coast.
Can’t believe no one has mentioned the Northwest shift. I love the looks of the Euro right now, but that axis of heavy snow along the Ohio River will most diffently move 50 – 100 miles north over the next two days. Happens to every big storm that I can remember over the past ten years. Hope I am wrong though.
As a resident in very northern Kentucky, I hope you’re right.
That March storm last year didn’t shift.
The Rolocoaster heads down the first hill.
It doesn’t seem right for there to be a big system and no mention of high water for SE Ky
Gonna be hard for seky to make the shift over to snow. Seen this one play out too many times. 9 degrees here in Carrie of knott co this morning
10 degrees here in Topmost of Knott as of now. I was up at 5:30 checking to make sure my water was still dripping and it was 14.
snow totals keep jumping up and down for my area Athens Oh,last was friday 8-12 and sat 5-8 and now 5-8 friday and 1-3 sat
Mean while we have put down a nice little deck dusting here in Rockcastle this morning
So what time is the snow expected to hit Ashland on Wednesday?
Mid morning give or take
Prelude, local mets here in Huntington/Ashland area are saying we will be lucky to get a dusting on Wednesday. While Chris is saying 1-2 inches. What are your thoughts?
I like and agree with CB’s 1-2 inch call for the Ashland area for tomorrow snow. Friday that’s a whole new issue.
Negative Ned says:
Are we sure our area will be mainly snow? Seems perhaps more ice than expecting and then heavy snow sticking on top. The main stuff appears to be the hockey stick turn to the north east. The bendy part and stick going up could be kaboom with snow.
Seems very dynamic, so good luck with forecasting the later week event, CB!
Dear Weather Friends,
Our daughter returns to WKU this weekend. Mom and Dad are a bit concerned about the drive from Richmond to BG. Any thoughts on the timing on all of this?
Sincerely,
Concerned Mom and Dad
Concerned mom and dad….Wait until the first system moves through. Once that happens a better idea of the weekend storm will come out. Maps of the weekend storms above will change over the next 24-72 hrs. Ice will be a player somewhere as this storm is going to be huge with lots of warm air overriding the cold that is in place. I have niece that just moved to VA. They are about to get hammered. So I understand your concern.
This. Ice could be a bigger factor than expected for folks thinking mainly snow. Could be a replay for some of the big ice event about eight years ago. That was supposed to be big snow, but turned into big ice for Kentucky and then a few inches of heavy snow on top of it.
CB, updates should be interesting.
If you’re on twitter, follow @WxOrNotBG . Very good here locally in BG on keeping twitter updated with the latest info!
Good link, thanks! My in-laws are in Bowling Green so my wife and I visit Bwg regularly (I’m also a WKU grad).
this is a OLD SCHOOL low for sure, right now Ricmond north and Northeast 8-10 south and south east of that 3-5 now we get a shift to SE we be in for more snow, the rain etc as I said earlier worries me.
You’re my boy rolo
I’m afraid the real story with Thurs-Sat will be freezing rain an sleet for much of KY with less snowfall…don’t think this is the fun anyone was wishing for.
I think there’s going to be a lot of disappointed people when it’s all said and done. Not trying to be the bearer of bad news. But it looks like warm air is working into the storm and is going to work against Kentucky. The snowmaker for tomorrow is going to take this artic air with it as it pulls away from Kentucky. So the arctic air will not be in place come Friday. But then again what do I know!
Depends on how quickly the cold air gets pulled out. A nice snow pack from Wedneday storm will help hold it in. I still believe the axis of heavy snow moves through Indiana and Ky gets the brunt of ice and rain. Going to be interesting to track.
Would seem a surprise if the track is more due north. At this point seems a slight shift more due east or west would be more likely, but I’m not a met (obviously).
You are right. The system 1 is of Pacific origin and will modify the existing air in place. However a snowpack will help retain remnants of the previous air especially at and just above the surface while we await system 2, which promises a high slop rating.
Jeez so.many negative people lol
It’s not being negative it’s reality. How many times has these systems pulled up warm air from the gulf coast. It’s hard to call these types of systems especially coming from the Pacific.
I agree with you Steve. Seen that strip of warm air on the west side of the Appy Mtns ruin a many good storms. We did have two last Winter that bucked the trend.
All eyes are definitely awaiting the 12z run of the NAM…gives us a snapshot now for system 1 and a glimpse into the system 2
What time does 12z run?
Between 10-11am
Uh, in a few minutes….
Sorry Prelude, meant to respond to Drew a moment ago
What time does that come out?
There you go. It’s out
Think it will be interesting to see CB next update. Next few model runs will be interesting for sure!
Was about to say the same thing! 12z models outcomes and trends are going to be very telling today.
As far as the 12z nam is saying for Wednesday system is looks like to push the 2-4 inch totals from I would say Louisville and points south. I think Louisville was in that 1-3 inch range looks to me you can argue 2-4 with the latest run of the nam.
Either or no real big difference
Wished we could post memes, Because I would post the Michael Jackson eating popcorn in a theater “I’m just here for the comments” meme. Because this page is cracks up. I love when people fight over silly stuff 🙂 But with that said, bring on 2 feet of snow please
CB just tweeted. No changes in the NAM. 1-6 Wed and looks like the previous run for Friday…..nasty ice to heavy snow mix. Will be fun to watch this all unfold for sure.
Holy winter storm Batman! The 12z NAM slams Ky with snow and ice Friday! This run looks a bit colder and with a bit more precip. This run also begins sampling as the storm enters on land, so more reliable then previous runs. Get ready folks!
James if you could what does southern IN look like?
It gets slammed too.
no ice please.
Looks like all snow for Cincinnati/NKY on Friday and lots of it!
Could you post the link?
Link please!
Friday looks concerning for many, but we still have time for that to change. Don’t panic just yet!
Kanawha Valley mets just keep telling us to wait, then they make random posts about “rain will keep totals down” then 5 seconds later post a map that shows 24 inches possible, then in the next post tell us to calm down, it’s too early…
It’s snowing right now in Knott County. Enough to put down a dusting so far.
Right now some flurries are dusting the rooftops here in neky. Lots of cold in place.
after bring up awhile looking at latest info, RICHMOND south RAIN Friday, will change over by Friday afternoon/evening. but not going be a MONSTER by any means. bummer
Rolocoaster!
more like a pendulum
Told ya. Rolo flip flops ten times a day.
Newest NAM SLAMS much of Kentucky & southern IN with SNOW on Friday! It’s a snow BINGO! It’s a NAM SLAM! Rodger in Dodger!
You have link dodger?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016011912/namconus_asnow_us_29.png
Kentucky could get a lot more ice than expecting. CB is already using the ice word more prominently. The track and transition appears (for now) to put a lot of Kentucky in area for ice as a significant part of the mix.
This seems to be evolving into more the event from eight years ago. It looked like big snow several days out and then turned into mainly ice for most of Kentucky and few inches of snow on top.
Let us hope that this late week system does not do the same as eight years ago and CB says snow is the main part of the mix.
Yeah. The position and strength of the low makes this look more and more like a sleet/ice event for Kentucky.
40″ here in the mountains of WV ??? even the know nothing mets here in the area actually showed a snow map saying 2 to 3 feet is a real possibility ….maybe they have been reading this blog hahaha
Boy that I-64 corridor looking really nasty on Friday
Yea looking at the NAM runs KyJohn posted, looks like a lot of ice.
And the I-64 corridor if where a big population of Kentuckians live. IMPACT looks high.
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=nam&run=12&fhr=02&field=ptype
I think that’s it. Sorta new at this. Down at the bottom you see the runs for X number of hours away.
Nws jackson and louisville thinking warm air gets involved with both storms. Oh well..
This IS Kentucky 😉
I wonder if Mr. Bailey is rooting for this Fri-Sat storm. Why would I say this? Because this year’s “bold prediction” from him during the fall’s winter forecast was for a “major, wind-driven winter storm.” The key word of course being wind-driven. If the Fri-Sat storm pans out like the model says, it would qualify.
If it pans out he would probably consider this to be the event. If not look out.
IF, and that’s a big IF, Friday’s event comes together the way some models are saying, someone’s going to be at or very near Blizzard conditions! Rodger says areas along the Ohio River would be prime IF things hold together. BUT, as with almost all big snow events, there is likely to some mighty disappointed snow fans too south of where the best snows set up. Rodger in Dodger!
North east of us could see the B word.
Wind could help with ice being less a factor on trees and power lines. Of course there would be just enough to help the heavy snow stick, so perhaps same lights-out results if we did get a big heavy snow with wind.
I thought about his bold prediction with this storm’s potential as well. Particularly its potential on the back side of it. Should be interesting and fun to watch!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016011912/namconus_asnow_us_29.png
Interesting AccuWeather has Louisville getting 10-14 inches of snow on Friday. Take that with a grain of salt.
CB’s take on this (model trends) will be interesting 🙂
Hopefully ice is less a factor.
Oh AccuWeather…….. That is a bigger jinx than when folks here say Oldschool 🙂
NWS in Jackson saying 1.5 – 3 inches for the Friday storm in eastern Ky. Someone is way off on this one and I hope it is them!!
FWIW, no mets in actual forecasts are pumping the event up yet and CB has been very clear it is not locked in for Friday.
The main point variable appears to be the warm air factor.
Will other mets start to lean to CB’s thinking, or will CB start leaning their way? Only the weather “knows”. 🙂
NWS in Charleston just posted a graphic saying low confidence in major storm door most of the state. Lowlands best case 2-4 inches, worst case 8-12 and 1/4 of ice.
*for, not door
Wow, talk about some places moving their forecast. Even the Wednesday storm has changed 4 times, literally, since yesterday evening. In 12 hours. The Friday-Saturday storm, in those forecasts, goes from a major thing in my area to nothing and back within hours. It really is fun to track that.
I really hope we can get a real good snow for my 2 year olds sake (needs to build him a snow man, or at least he thinks so). And maybe the temps those forecasts are showing will hold. No ice, a big snow, fun weekend and then 40+degrees next week with little to no school missed. My wife would love that.
Not sure what model NWS in Charleston is looking at but they have “Low” confidence for snow in Charleston and Huntington.
FRIDAY by the time the cold air works back in it will be too late for anything MAJIOR as far as snow.
My totals for the Wednesday system are a tad lower than CB’s. I do think some 5″ amounts could be achieved, but the dry atmosphere will yield at least an inch of virga.
its the trends of years past, closer we get the warmer th air
I can’t agree more. More times than not most of KY gets the shaft on the big snow that the models show four and five days out. Not doubt this will be a huge storm for many. It really depends on tomorrow’s system and how much of a snow pack is there to hold the lower level cold around. I am very concerned for ICE on Friday all the way to the river. Points north of the Ohio River will see the heaviest snow.
I recall last years big snows were called by CB a few days out while the other mets take was no big snows. The voice of reason was one of them 😉
agree on that Mike
Thinking both of these events will be a bust for a lot of people.
Maybe that is why CB is now referring of to through February in his new tweet and not this week’s late week event 😉
Perhaps a graceful, gradual downgrade of the event…. Yes, I micro think that way- when joking or not.
That was actually a reply to a specific question about Jan through Feb
Nooooooo
I was joking, but still admit micro thinking.
Great now CB knows I stalk his Twitter replies
Ok I’ll bite why will it be a bust?
Based on some models. Looks like it’s shifting and weakening a bit and will miss where it was originally predicted to hit. The mountains of WV look set to get the brunt of it. The majority of us will miss out.
lol based on what?
Southern/ south east ky isn’t looking at much for the late week system. It’s gonna be a central/northern ky event due to thermal profiles. It’s almost like they built I-64 based on winter weather patterns lol
Too much warm air. Mid-Atlantic and New England going to have shutdown snowstorm.
Once again agree with you. And I think the NWS offices in Jackson and Charleston think the same thing. The area from Chas/Hunt WV. Southwest toward Pikeville, Hazard and Harlan will get stuck in that warm wedge if you are N, W or East of that dead zone you will do well.
I remember the 1994 blizzard here in Frankfort, we had several hours of freezing rain before it changed to very heavy snow 20 inches in a six hour period ??
Remember it well. Snowed in at our house in Cloverdale for a week 😀
Is tonight / tomorrow’s snow coming from the system you can see on the radar west right now ? It looks more like it’s heading toward Northern KY than Southern. ……. to my very untrained eye .
Mother Nature can be a finicky woman….Never know what she has up her sleeve. But we do live in Ky. So just wait a moment the weather will change.
This
I think we should leave the meteorology to Chris lol….although I do love reading everyone’s opinion…mother nature is gonna do what it wants to do…nothing we can do about it
Especially this
LOL
When do the next models come out?
West Virginia going get slammed
Midday post???? Come on CB….
WPC is showing increased confidence about freezing rain. 🙁 Including heavier totals Friday along the Ohio River and for somewhat lighter amounts tomorrow mainly in Tennessee and southern KY.
Winter Storm Warning for parts of western Ky