Good afternoon, folks. Overall, my general thoughts on the winter storms ahead of us have not changed very much at all. I did tweak the call for snowfall for the first system coming in tonight and Wednesday…
I nudged the numbers up a bit based on model data and an observation from today. What was that observation? It snowed in several areas of the state with bitterly cold, dry arctic air in place. That showed me the atmosphere wants to snow, and with deeper moisture coming in, that’s what it’s going to do.
With a frozen ground, you won’t lose a flake of snow to melting and roads may become snow covered for a while. Winter Weather Advisories are out for many with a Winter Storm Watch for the west…
The winter storm coming Thursday night through Saturday morning is a headline maker from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic and into the northeast. While the actual snow and ice totals for any one location aren’t yet known, I feel confident this storm will have a major impact on our weather in Kentucky.
The NAM is going to start getting attention since the storm is now with its range. Let me remind everyone of the inherent flaw of the model: It overdoes warm air advection. Many times, that cause the model to have too much precipitation and to be too far north. We saw this with both storms last winter. The model eventually corrects itself.
The NAM snowfall map through 7pm Friday illustrates my point…
That is very likely overdone and too far north. Even if the model were to be accurate, snow totals for the rest of the state would increase Friday night into early Saturday.
The GFS is starting to look more like the European Model. It’s been rather jumpy with it’s snow shield in recent runs, but it’s looking better with the placement…
Notice how that is much farther south than the NAM. Every other model agrees with the placement, but the totals vary from model to model. High winds are also going to be a problem with this storm!
Again, I see no reason to make changes to my threat map…
Updates come your way later today and on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Take care.
Thanks CB! Hopefully ice does not evolve into a main player for the second system.
What time tonight/tomorrow do you suspect storm will hit Frankfort?
GOOD WORK BAILEY BOY!!!!the REDNECK BUNKER Handicapping anf FRIENDS OF CHRIS BAILEY Clay County chapter on facebook ur place for updates..
I’ll stick with the blog. 😉
This event just got better….Rolo is waxing the sled runner and howling in dee-lite!
Looking forward to the possibility of some snow. Stay away blowtorch!
Chris, where do you think the rain/snow line may start. Who would start as rain and who would be almost all snow??
By looking at the maps, above, E-Town to Lexington maybe the cut off for rain to snow. Is the correct??
Sure hope we get some snow love here in east tn..from such a huge memorable storm..
I hope you do as well. Ole Buddy 🙂
I’m so confused lol! WSAZ just said at noon that” a good starting point for I64 is 3-6 inches for the storm Friday. The NWS doesn’t know what the heck is going on (2-18 inches?? Really??) and the morning guy on 13 said most will melt on contact and we’d probably end up with 1-8, yet these maps keep saying 14+inches. Ugh.
Melt on contact? Has he been outside the past several days?
There wont’ be anything melting on contact. If temps don’t rise above freezing during the day everything will freeze on contact at this point.
The gfs and euro helping us folks out here in cen ky. Getting real
When are the next model runs?
GFS, NAM at 6. Next Euro is at midnight.
Thanks Chris for the update. I’m hoping for some snow. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out! Stay warm folks!
I’m hoping the first run of the NAM is close! I’d love to see a crazy high snowfall total in the Northern KY/Cincinnati area. Seems like since I’ve been up here, my hometown of Paducah is getting more snow than me!
Thanks for the update, Chris!
Thanks Chris! WHEEEE! Let the fun and games begin! 😉
It’s gonna be all rain for ky :((
It’s gonna be all rain for ky 🙁
I’m just here to read the comments at this point. Commence with the negativity armchair METS
Meh-ts 🙂
Ok, for those of you that have seen a radar or future cast, what time will Ashland see an inch tomorrow? Possible early dismissal from school? Or a snow day Thursday?
Models showing some 6″ + for Laurel County for storm #2…Nice! I guess the rain won’t last as long. Hoping for quick changeover on Friday. ALSO, WSW now out for south central KY. Since the watch and now warned area is inching toward the east, as is CB’s snowfall forecast for storm #1, might that trend continue east?
Actually, that is combined totals from both events.
Everyone be safe … that said,
Let the snow begin.
We should get a snow day or two out of this
Does any know what the chances are of any freezing rain or sleet in central KY with the storm coming on Friday?
I think that is one of the things CB is figuring out. The mix and where it will be more/less snow.
I’m wondering if the models will start to trend south with the storm as we get closer to it arriving.
At this point it looks like the national news and internet weather sites along with Chris are predicting a decent hit for the tri-state area. However the local NWS and tv stations hanging on to the rain. But they usually are pretty good buzz killers.
As CB noted, they tend to go by certain models and do not apply weight to the average of models or trends. To paraphrase, they simply take a model, repeat what it says and phone it in.
There is a reason CB is one of the better Mets and a lot of the others are Meh-ts. Especially a few I will leave nameless 😉
I couldn’t agree more. The ones where I live really aren’t worth watching all they do is read off what the Chas. NWS send them. I can go to the NWS Web site and read it myself.
Does anyone know how much snow I’ll get in my back yard?
Somewhere between none and eleventy zillion
🙂
I know CB is down playing the NAMs thoughts, but I feel that it will end up having the correct path just not the amounts. Still concerned about the icing potential for much of KY. I will say, that from past experiences and reads, that Low pressure systems have a tendency to follow the edge of the snow pack. Track #2 might not be determined until after tomorrow. If #2 does go along the new snow pack watch out all of KY for big time snow.
Possible, but was almost a hundred miles off with the last two big snow events.
As usual the Charleston NWS is last to extract head from posterior and issue advisories for Greenup, Boyd, Carter and Lawrence counties. Typical doughnut hole….
They are too busy being snarky on twitter. I’ve found a few on there and all they do is post crap making fun of the public. Well, when you put out graphics forcasting 2-18 inches of snow, it’s no big shocker that people are confused. That’s a HUGE difference.
Charleston usually waits for an event to start then tries to play catch up throwing out watches and warnings left and right.
Thanks for the cool updates, Chris.
And thanks to the rest of the posters with funny and interesting comments. Good stuff.
I live far part of western,ky in Union.co notice that Louisville NWS has put us in the storm warning mode ,but Paduch NWS has us in a watch mode. Now explain that to me!!!!
Lack of coordination between NWS offices. Nothing new! Paducah should have pulled the trigger for a warning by now but current shift is probably “waiting for afternoon shift to determine.” Rodger in Dodger!
Rodger in Dodger they just pulled the plug. Now there in the same page.
Can someone tell me what the current track of this low means for SE KY, Thanks in advance http://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ECMWF&p=sfcmslp&rh=2016011912&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=
Questions for some of the LONG time followers as I have been following CB and KWC for the past 10 years.
Has CB ever had to Threat Modes in one post? I don’t ever remember that happing.
Never hardly comment, but watch them b/c they usually are hilarious. I do get annoyed at the “haters” (the ones who scream “hype!” and taunt CB) that sneak in once in awhile as this is pretty fun and nice community.
Anyway, to answer your question, I sure dont recall seeing that and this one has a third trying to sneak in for at least some conversation.
I’ve never seen threats for two different storms in the same post. I have seen threats be active for two different storms at the same time – I think. I know I’ve seen a Winter Storm Alert for one storm, plus a Winter Storm Threat for a storm behind it, but those are usually spread out over different posts.
Two threats in one post might be a first.
Not that I ever recall I don’t ever remember to events in 1 week.
Chris is right I have seen snow several places today esp in the Sidney area it come down! Crossing my fingers for a big one! One thing for sure baby it’s cold outside! I hope we all get a good one and if only a few can get it I hope it’s me lol❄️❄️❄️❄️⛄️⛄️⛄️⛄️
Take that European model to the bank.
You have a map???
Euro came south and was colder
Map?
I dunno how to post on here. Look on my Facebook. I have it there. Trent Hensley
swath of 12-20 inches from Corbin to bowling green north toward i64. Pretty much through middle of state
Morning and night time models are the best, i wouldn’t trust the models coming in now.
Well Kat. The models have consistently showed a big hit for the past 3 days. Nothing really changed. Just a tad south which has been a trend
The trend has been north?
Latest Euro came way south.
http://i.imgur.com/1pmd1tw.jpg
That would definitely be a WOW type event. Thanks for posting that.
Don’t trust it.
Can never trust that stuff until you see it falling and the event is happening. But it is cool to see what the models are finding. And the closer you get the more intriguing it is. Eventually we will be within a window that these models will be a good indication.
Overall, this just shows that the model is seeing a ton of moisture and big potential.
Conference call with national weather service at 2:30
Thanks for the update Chris…….You’re the best!
As far as storm #2 goes, we need to let tonight’s snow fall and see where the models take storm #2. The second storm will follow the snow pack.
It’s a bit too early to call for a foot of snow in any given area. Time will tell, however, here in Louisville, I am going to get the snow thrower out of the shed, gas her up, check the oil, and be ready .
Stay warm everyone!
Come on Chris you cant tweet that out and not post a snowfall map for us to agonize over. lol
Guys!! I wouldn’t even look at models until after tonight’s event. They will change and i bet trend back north.. WAA will be huge for central and southern KY.
This! Still need to get closer to see the most likely path and areas to see the greatest impact! At least we are in the game that is for sure. If I were a Met I would be thinking the track w be South of the Nam but North of the Euro for right now. Will be fun to watch the track tomorrow night and models battle it out but think it will be be Thursday mid day before they have a good handle on the track IMO. WW
Well, if the current forecasts I have seen (updated from an hour or so ago) are close my area should see anywhere from 5-12 inches between the two storms. Taking low and high totals into consideration.
Have to wonder how snow on the ground works on those temps though. And how that will influence things. Seems that confidence, most places, is coming up in regards to this event though. Guess we shall see but I am going to prepare like it is happening just in case. No harm in that.
Are we cherry picking the models that suit the snow desire? Yes, the NAM was wrong by about 100 miles (twice) last year. What if the NAM exacts revenge this time? 😉 🙂
All good whatever happens as long as minimal ice 🙂
Agree, Its the journey, the tracking of the system that is fun. The older I get the less I really desire a big event as I think about the negative aspects of winter storms. That said there is still a small part that hopes for a big snow.
It’s the cozy factor 🙂
I hear Star Wars music in the background…Darth???
Darth had two Death Stars blown away last winter. I think he is now in a galaxy really far far away.
So if tonight’s a bust then we all know get the umbrellas ready for friday
weather.gov is only predicting 2-4 inches.
weather.gov. Nuff said 😉
That must be the forecast site that the Chas/Hunt mets use.
NWS Lou should updating their site soon. Think they will continue to play it safe on the Friday event for another day or two IMO. They don’t get excited about the models this far out. That said….will be interesting to read their forecast discussion for Central, KY. WW
NWS in Louisville is acknowledging that double digits snow totals are a real possibility for Friday. Along with 20-30 mph winds.
Almost the B word then.
Odd why they have not updated for Lex Central KY. Are you looking at the Forecast Discussion?
NWS had conference call at 2:30 about tomorrow’s event but they did touch on Friday’s event and acknowledge that there is potential for big snows.
Nam went south as well, could get interesting
Care to post it?
http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-14152-1453236267_thumb.jpg
Pretty sure that’s the previous run of the NAM. It matches perfectly with the map CB posted earlier
New Nam chris tweeted moments ago looks scary for southern indiana and boarding ky counties.
A few hours ago Charleston NWS tweeted a map with low confidence for a Winter storm in southern WV and NE KY.
They are terrible….I pay no attention to them
Jimbo, I’m in Barboursville and see your comments on here frequently bemoaning the local mets. I agree with Corey. Why do you even watch them?? They are useless.
I usually don’t watch them or visit their sites. However I do hear their forecasts on the radio and sometimes can’t avoid seeing them on the TV in the lobby where I work. Also certain channels give little weather updates during commercials which is annoying because the updates are usually several hours old. This is the best site for in depth info. No one in our area comes close.
Chris shared the computer model with 12 inches of snow for most of central and southeastern ky on weather at 4. I hope this model pans out. Thanks Chris for update. What time does snow get started in the morning?
I think around 3 or 4 am?
The Nam once again has dropped the mic and left the stage.
The NAM goes BAM! Part II
Being that said one has to wonder if the Nam is having some feedback issues
That is a beautiful snow map. Hopefully the Euro comes back north a little and puts Louisville smack dab in the middle of the heaviest snows.
Greedy, 8-10 inches of snow not enough? lol
Anyone have any thoughts on what they’ve seen regarding timing of Friday’s event (whatever it may be!) I’m supposed to be taking two girls to a broadway play downtown Lou Thursday night….getting nervous. I’m not afraid of snow but if it starts out as ice, I’m not real comfortable with that! Here’s hoping it holds off until at least 11pm Thurs night….
That’s just the kid coming out in me I guess. If it’s going to snow it might as well drop 20+ inches. lol
Preach!
Agreed! I can’t wait to get the sleds out again with my daughter!!! Would love for Louisville to be in the bullseye! ⛄️❄️
Now CB Tweets…..GFS coming on board with Euro with largest band along and just South of I-64. Will be interesting to monitor the movement from here and see how this all pans out. WW
I live, literally, 200 yds from I-64.
I’m about 2 miles — stocked up on salt today, dusted off the shovel. READY!
It’s time for another update!
Won’t be till 7
Updates now on WKYT. 🙂
I’m in WV lol!
True that – his blog audience has a wider reach than his TV audience 🙂
You can go to wkyt.com and watch the live stream
I must be missing out here. What current map is out there? What’s the snow look like for the Thursday/Friday storm for just north of Louisville in So. IN?
So I just got back in from throwing salt and haven’t been able to look over the latest runs. Just by reading the comments it seems we are in for a nice winter storm come Friday. Will be interested to see what the models do once this first batch of snow moves out and there is a snowpack to deal with. Might push #2 further South.
I hope it goes south
Didn’t miss much. NAM goes south as usual. Late Wednesday and early Thursday will tell the tale.
well looks like ill be missing the big storm here in Athens Ohio they had us 90% chance of snow and 8-12in this morning now 40% chance and 1” what a bummer
How are you not going to receive more snow.
Your location is in southeast Ohio, am I correct?
yea, southern ohio. I’m from jackson ohio,,, followed him from his WSAZ days. I dont even bother to watch our local.
yes I’m in south east ohio,is it missing ohio now
find out at 7
tonight not much,, but thurs/frid looking good
I like strawberry glaze on my model waffles with whipped cream. 8-10 of whipped cream would be great. Thursday my model waffles could have 12 inches of blueberries in LouMetro.
So exciting – Even though I had my fill after 2 major winter storms last year within 3 weeks of each other, and now possibly again? AFTER YEARS of no big snows………Kinda crazy…..Can’t wait to see how this plays out…..both tonight and Fri –
Careful! Don’t count your snowballs until their thrown 😉
Snows were bad last year in Harlan lots of rooftops crushed. Let’s hope we get plenty of snow but no damage. Southward trend continue!
Looks like at this moment heavy snow in St Louis Missouri.
This storm is not going to be any picnic.
I think we should name this ‘the forgotten storm’
Normally we would be talking about this storm for about 24 hours.
Right on
Hope the snow for tonight/tomorrow delivers for you folks in Kentucky, who like snow. It appears I will be on the outside looking in. Perhaps better outcome on Friday for WV.
So now we await the next euro run…