Good evening, everyone. Our first winter storm is about ready to push into western Kentucky and will drop a light to moderate snowfall across the state. This will be followed up by a bigger storm coming in Thursday night through early Saturday.
A Winter Storm Warning is now out for western Kentucky into south central areas. A Winter Weather Advisory is out for the rest of the state through Wednesday…
The latest snowfall forecast from the GFS drops a heavy snow hammer across the west…
This is the same area the WPC shows has the best chance for 4″ or more of snow…
Snow covered roads are a good bet across the entire area from late tonight through Wednesday.
Our next storm system is taking on a colder look for Thursday night and Friday. The trend of today’s models has been for one low to work into east Tennessee before the bigger storm cranks in the Carolinas.
The WPC is highlighting much of the region for significant snows on Friday…
The usual discrepancies are showing up among the computer models. They often change a bit from run to run and certainly from model to model.
That’s very evident in looking at the NAM and GFS…
NAM
GFS
As you are well aware, all of these maps are forecasts from computer models and not from me. I hope to have a first call map out for this wind driven winter storm later tonight or early Wednesday.
Until then, let’s track the snow in from the west…
Enjoy the evening and take care.
there bust potential with these models, loos good rightnow, but u never know till tomm nite run.
Waiting patiently for the snow!!
” I hope to have a first call map out for this wind driven winter storm later tonight or early Wednesday.”
2016 Bold Prediction Alert….
He did say this wind driven winter storm. Not THE wind driven winter storm. This is not the storm he speaks of. HA HA
NAM is going H.A.M
Only time will tell but I like our chances.
THAT NAM THO.
This.
We need a Like button. I’m sure that’s been said a bunch.
LIKE…(There is the like button)
CB I heart the storm chaser map. Clicking on a car to see it snowing in Illinois and knowing its headed to us = one happy girl!
Pretty consistent with both models on amounts for Carter County. Know that can change between now and then. Oh well, bring it on…
Not a fan of the new ky mesonet site. Ain’t broke don’t fix it.
Clark I don’t know if I need to be sliding down a hill with nothing between the ground and me but a piece of government plastic
Do you really think it matters?
Bingo!
Like
The nam couldnt detect a dump truck plowing into a nitro glycerin factory
Not often you see a model showing 20″ of snow in the lower Ohio Valley. The NAM would be great for Rodger’s backyard. Rodger in Dodger!
I’m not buying what the Nam is selling I’m thinking the Nam is having feedback issues
When do we ever trust the 18z runs….
When do we ever trust the NAM beyond 6 hours…ever. lol
Right now it is the NAM and EURO vs the GFS and Canadian. Which do you believe? The new NAM will be out around 8:45. See what it says then.
I’m selfish, since prefer less snow to shovel 🙂
all right time to start tracking tonights system.
Bring it!! Sing it! Let the wild rumpus begin.
Thanks for the update and your dedication to the blog. Hope the two models are close accurate.
If we had a dollar for how many times the models looked good a few days out and then drifted off,we would have enough for some really fine dining 🙂
I heard that.
If I had a snowflake for every time it looked good a few days out, I’d have a pretty good-sized snow person
Its almost comical to watch another meteorologist down play tonight by calling it a nuisance at best. I know tonight is not going to be a major storm but it’s like he hated to report we were going to get any snow because it hadn’t been in his long team forecast. Finished the news by saying we might get an itty bitty amount.
I think I saw the same one
The late week storm could be CB bold winter storm that he predicted.
This is not the storm he speaks of. This is this storm and not THE storm. Lots of winter left after these two. Going to get interesting over the next 72 hrs
You got that right Jenks. Interesting indeed.
Euro run at 1:30 am ?
Wonder why he didn’t show the euro this time? Seems like he shows it when we are a week away from a storm. Think we would go into panic mode if we saw it this early?!
I dunno – but the GFS looks more believable to me……Not that 18 to 20 inches can’t happen here – but the GFS just looks more realistic…….But you never know……stranger things have happened ..
I second that, maybe a blend of the two, which is still a really nice snow
Blend three, since this system is dynamic to the max. Last year a lot of us got two 17 plus inch events in three weeks, so not exactly like recent history does not support the possibility 🙂
IF it were to pan out, my back says 🙁
Curious how much drift we see in the current model solutions over night…
Chris I’m not sure but sometimes I think that wave 3 guy might be talking about you kinda makes me not want to visit his blog
No offense, but how do you even read that blog!? Guess I’m spoiled by years of Bailey. My ten year old writes a better narrative than them. I didn’t see where they were talking about Chris but about social media in general. I’ve seen a lot of screen shots and pictures of TV screens in my Facebook feed where people are taking things out of context.
00Z NAM is out to 12 hours.
If there’s any folks in Western Kentucky tonight, give us some updates as the snow starts coming down. It always seems like the storms always come during the middle of the night and you just get to see the finished product when we wake up. I wish we could have a chance to just prop our feet up and watch the whole storm sometime. Will be interesting to see how much this first storm drops and then get the updated data for Friday. Thanks for all the hard work CB!
No snow yet in Bowling Green….. Crossing my fingers that the NAM is accurate.
I live in Western KY. Lone Oak, which is a part of Paducah, to be exact. We have started receiving some light sleet/freezing rain. Air temperature is currently 25 degrees. It snowed just a little earlier. We are expecting the main show to start here around 10 pm.
I agree!!
I say turn it up to 11! (Wish I knew how to embed the youtube here instead of just the link…
http://youtu.be/KOO5S4vxi0o
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOO5S4vxi0o&w=420&h=315%5D
u ALL FORGOT last years MONSTER??? so we hit that not missed. so don’t wann here we missed all time, fact is last late winter storm CHANGED the game. so BUCKLE UP as we get not one 12 inch snow but couple before this winters out.
I think rolo may be on the happy juice tonight 🙂 Rolo, you’re always a good read!
The blog would be incomplete without the Rolocoaster.
New nam out at 8:45? If so what does it say? Can someone post it Please?
The 00Z NAM is juicy between hours 60 – 69, but it is still 48 + hours out from the onset.
I am not buying any frozen event model solution a few days out unless ice, since those are almost always correct. Sad but true.
We are essentially within 48 hours now from the expected onset of the Thursday night system. Folks should perhaps avoid Lucy’s football until perhaps this time tomorrow night.
Agreed. It hurts when she pulls that sucker away at the last second.
The amount of QPF the NAM is putting out is incredible. I thought the 18Z run was out there.
If the models do not drift and/or lose correlation, it will be interesting what the forecast might be.
Stores would be pure comedy starting tomorrow afternoon IF the models hold course.
But I want to believe.
Like
Like
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Like.
Hard to believe that rain will not be an issue in the southern tier
00Z NAM QPF through hour 72.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072&image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_072_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160120+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model
Those numbers are almost unbelievable.
Thanks for the graph
.50-.75 inches of ice and 8″+ of snow with 20-30 mph winds. Not the good kind of trifecta.
That would be Mad Max chaos, but in a frozen setting. I want to be the dude with the guitar! With proper winter attire of course 🙂
Your guitar shoots fire out of it. That should keep you warm.
Mediocre!
The NAM once again dropped the mic. and walked of stage.
Let me guess, the NAM will come back onstage tomorrow 4 times and drop the mic. Who knows, NAM will probably drop and break the mic in one of these runs, and somehow manage to drop it again after that.
Hate the look of the NAM for SE part of the state…no snow at all 🙁
Not to worry. The NAM is the most unreliable of all forecasting models…especially from more than 6 hours out. Take it as a grain of salt and toss it over your shoulder.
Nam shows 6-10 se ky. What are u looking at
I am looking at the map Chris posted to twitter, Knott, Floyd and Pike are in bright blue, which is 2-3 inches? Im hoping Im wrong!
Im so hoping that is right
The thing that is crazy to me is that CB called this like 2 weeks ago. Of course we will have to wait and see what happens, but still…kinda unbelievable.
Dude is good!
As long as its not ice I don’t care. This time tomorrow night things will be pretty much dead on for who will get what,when,and where. Its still to early to get alarmed or disappointed for whatever to his own wishes to happen in their area.
This display is on a 40″ scale, not the normal 20″. Yes Virginia, the NAM is on steroids and a few Red Bulls!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays-40.php3?STATIONID=LVX
If the total precip map shows nearly 1 inch, and the new run shows around 5 of that 1 inch of precip being snow, what happens to the rest of it? Does it rhyme with mice? I hope not.
Pretty clear to me that a warm nose of sorts will be flexing its muscles for us folks down in southeast Ky.. And that’s fine by me, got my belly full of snow last winter.
We just keep hearing “The warm wedge is gonna eat our snow in the Kanawha Valley…”
It usually does, I would be very surprised if it didn’t. I think that is why the locals don’t know what to say. It is safer lean toward the rain because of our history.
Any thoughts on Friday’s storm being an airport closer? Flight time 10:16
Better cancel ur flight if your scared
There are times when the NAM can’t get out of its own way, but think back to the March storm last year. That one started out with a ton of rain, and the NAM overall did a fairly good job. By no means does it have this storm pegged. Only time will tell that story, but it does get one right every now and then.
6-8″ for Middlesboro on Friday. Watch and see.
I’m in Huntington, wv area.
My friend tinkers with meteorology for fun. The last snow we had they were predicting 3 inches for our area, but he predicted less than an inch and was right.
He thinks our area won’t get much from this storm at all..maybe 2-3 inches If we’re lucky.
Agree with M. Carson. Seems like last winter, NAM was reliable. GFS was the model that couldn’t figure out what was what.
Packing my deck and headed to Snowshoe, WV tomorrow!!!!
That’s a great idea, we look to get hammered up here!
wow they raised the snow totals for my area, Athens Ohio for friday to 1-3″
I’m not in far se ky but just west of pike county. All day today on all models we were looking at a min of 8-10″ now showing less than 4?? Hope this doesn’t verify. Don’t see how we could have one 75 mile warm circle esp when we are supposed to get up to 2″ tomorrow. Hope it’s just back to overplaying the warm air aloft as it was early this morning. Euro has had us anywhere from12-18 all day! Just ordered a bunch of salt sleds and snow shovels for my business today so crossing my fingers nam will change again or is just flat out wrong!
GFS shifted south, I’d say the Euro will do the same..maybe even further
Its the Nam vs gfs…we will see what the euro says
South? GFS looks very close to NAM to Rodger but with less moisture. Rodger in Dodger
Meant west hope the euro comes through..
Bubba has the right idea, be very skeptical about this turning into anything noteworthy by the time Friday gets here…except ice, always expect that.
Gfs ensembles south. Big hit south of Lexington
Richmond?
10-14
Can you post a link to the graphic.
Looking at the radar, I don’t see how southern KY gets forecasted amounts. Big precip shield north. Not moving S-SE either.
Watch that radar start to blow up now.
It’s great!
Euro way north. A complete miss
Chris just tweeted about the euro. Big hit for entire state.
Saw that. 🙂
Looks like the Louisville area is going to be cheering for the NAM. I know the NAM is wrong. The other models are crushing dreams of a big snow.
Where is the early morning post?
I say he’s got a lot to look over first. Prob around 2am or a little after.
Is central ky getting more than a foot of snow
A couple of the models are way south. One has the low on the central TX/LA border and takes the low due east. On one run, NYC doesn’t get a drop of moisture. I don’t think the NAM is the final solution, but these deep south runners seem out of place too. I don’t say this because I want a big snow, it just seems odd they are so far south. There is still a ton of moisture with this storm no matter what model you look at. Whoever gets the sweet spot, whether it be Nashville, Knoxville or whoever; they are going to get some precip.
I do not see south west ky getting 3-6 inches, just a radar observance?
Reports of over a inch already per CB on Twitter
Lots of dry air over Frankfort, radar looks good but nothing falling 🙁
The verga Storm continues in Frankfort area: