Good Wednesday, everyone. We’re tracking a light to moderate snowfall across the bluegrass state as a low end winter storm zips through. I’ll get to that in a moment, but I want to say a few things about the bigger winter storm on the way for Friday.
This is likely to be a high impact system across Kentucky into the Mid Atlantic states and into parts of the northeast. The models will come into better agreement later today or tonight, but my current thoughts are close to what the European Model is now showing…
I still think that moisture field can get pulled just a big farther north. If the NAM is onto something, then that’s certainly the case.
My threat map has changed from my last update…
The initial surge of moisture Thursday night can take on all forms before transitioning to mainly snow across the region on Friday. Significant accumulations will be possible and I will have a first call map out by early afternoon. Winds will be a HUGE player and could reach 40mph with gusts.
I leave you with all the tracking toys you need for the current snow system…
Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington
I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond
US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort
US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I-64 MP 97
Winchester
Mountain Parkway near Slade
I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown
I-65 MP 32
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
See you for the first call map later this morning or early afternoon. Stay safe on the roads and take care.
Looks like the whole state will be hit hard now for Friday.
Not liking the southern trend for Louisville. Move it back north 50 miles or so and I’ll be ok with that. Southeast Kentucky may be the big winners this time? Two days to go. Woooooooo!
I live in Middlesboro so I’m all for it. Lol
Weather Underground now has Louisville as 1-3 inches. Originally, 5-8. Looking bad for snow lovers.
North Central KY will do just fine with getting a decent snow on Friday. NWS has already hoisted a WSW for north central KY for Friday. It’ll be more than a dusting lol
0z Euro snow map http://imgur.com/YGu8YSw
Hoping for a few good snows so I can get out of school for a couple weeks lol already have school called off for today here in Pulaski County
Finally starting to see some flakes fly here in Northern Pulaski
Really hoping this trends north 50 miles I want louisville to get slamned. Seems like there is still a lot of waffling left though
Radar shows moderate snow in Bowling Green, but nothing falling 🙁
Is it hitting the ground yet?
Yeah, light to moderate snow now, almost half an inch. Been reaching the ground for at least 30 minutes now.
Frustrating to see the entire state circled in that risk area except once again the northern tip. Great place to live, here in Covington, but I sure do miss getting in on the big snows.
Just got in from work at the Louisville Int’l airport. Roadways are snow covered all the way home. Salt trucks out doing their job. Snow started about an hour earlier than I expected, but the light snow/flurries did not last long before a steady moderate snow commenced. Here at my house in Valley Station, just measured 1.5″. Did not expect that until 7am, so ahead of schedule for me.
Louisville looks to be in the dusting area. Whole thing needs to slide North.
Yeah,I didn’t really get the whole state thing with the Euro. Clearly the Ohio River counties and a row of counties south of them wouldn’t see much snow at all.
Yeah they will. Might not be 12+ but a solid 3-6 for the river counties
I am going to post this to my blog too, but this tool from the NWS Louisville is rather useful. This page will show what is expected over a 3 day period. Some of the expected snowfall amounts are rather impressive across Kentucky. Check back periodically on the page below for updated forecast totals.
http://www.weather.gov/lmk/dss
Winter Storm Watch for system #2..includes much if not all of Louisville CWA. In effect starting Thursday night through overnight Friday into Saturday morning.
Looks like the nam has jogged south as well on the 0z run, but has a nice hit for most of the state, but it looks like parts of cen ky could get smashed.
Not 0z i meant 6z sorry
Snowing pretty good here in Middlesboro.
This mornings NAM has once again dropped the mic and left the stage
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=JKL
I hope that comes true, I am in the middle of that 20 inch zone.
Hope the models trend just a tad north. Would love to see that kind of snow in the Ville.
Over a inch in Middlesboro. Still coming down good here.
Watch out. Something not very nICE might be more of a player than expected.
Elaborate please
Yes please
ICE
for whom?
It should be the more south of the flow, but depends on the track. Another question is how much of the moisture is Thursday night and Friday.
CB’s update should be interesting.
This.
Also note the dry slot at the 645 to 700 radar that is almost the exact shape of Madison county.
Already tired of shoveling…err, sweeping snow.
Berea reporting in with 2.75 inches thus far.
That’s weird – Berea is 12 miles away from my house in Richmond and we have had less than 1/2 inch so far… Oh well – my daughter is happy with the snow day!
Oh no, no no no, don’t want to hear that BubbaG. PTSD from February 2003 starting to kick in. 🙁
2008 is still in my mind. That was the kind of like this event. Big snow expectations a few days prior, but turned into mainly ice for most of us with a two inch topping of heavy snow to break more trees and lines.
Richmond and points south of the river missed the 2003 event.
Still expectant to see heavy snow tomorrow night in southern IN.
Yes, no, maybe
NWS jackson’s latest discussion says 2-5in for the southern half of their area and 5-8in for the northern area.
They must be liking the GFS, I am hoping it wins out as well as the ice is less in my area with the gfs
Snow coming down heavy here in Clay County!!!!!Hope the whole state gets a foot or more with the next storm!! Chris can’t wait to see snowfalll map, it’s like waiting to open presents on Christmas morning when I was a little girl. Bring on the SNOW!!!!!
The Weather Channel is already putting some high totals out for EKY and SEKY for Friday. Pretty good sign when they do. They’re usually pretty low on their totals.
2″ in Middlesboro already with the heavy stuff 2 hrs away per Knoxville Mets
Looks like it’s not going to be as much snow as forecasted here in Nelson County. We will barely get to 2 inches.
Thelma Lou is loving things this morning! It looks like most will be melted though by Friday change over. Wayne County in the 3 day snow forecast from nws in the lowest totals 1 or 2 inches tops.
Huntington WV here. Once again the donut hole got us. No snow today as was expected earlier in the week. It missed us.
Doubt we will get much from the Friday storm as well.
The snow in Huntington isn’t supposed to start for a few more hours yet according the the local mets.
According to every forcast that I watched yesterday and this morning, it was never supposed to be snowing by 7:45 in Huntington. All Met’s said heaviest snow would be after 10.
Hold on Rebecca…..snow is here in neky about 30 minutes from you on 1-64. Our roads just became snow covered about 20 minutes ago. Very fine stuff falling at 18 degrees. I believe you should see it in a few minutes.
Still nothing here
Looks like my snow will be ending soon…2.6″ but grand finale of moderately heavy snow still pushing through, may still hit 3″.
Carrie in knott county gonna be lucky to squeeze and inch or inch and half out of this round looks like. Very fine flakes falling not added up to much
so did the big storm trend south will i see any snow in SE Ohio?
If it trends even more south, some folks in Kentucky might be asking that as well 😉
The models today should be more steady today. That is unless they start differing more. GFS appears to be a naysayer for a bigger event. Perhaps an average of them might be the way to go.
CB is working on it 🙂
whatever happens Fri/Sat will be gone by Sunday and Monday… temps will get low 40s and upper 40s on Monday for London/Corbin area.
Great! Less shoveling 🙂
Several inches and snowing hard in Pine Knot !
Very light fine snow in Topmost of Knott Co.
Thanks Chris. Woke up to about two inches of snow this morning and it is still coming down . We are definitely on our way to 3-4 for sure here in Somerset. Looks like more to come. I just hope the
freezing rain /ice part you mentioned doesn’t materialize, for anyone!
Looking forward to the next update. In the meantime, stay safe and warm everyone!
Wdrb getting on board with a mostly snow event for Friday with little icing.
12Z NAM initializing now..models today should be coming into agreement…
Looking for a trend between today’s runs and tomorrow’s using the 0z and 12z runs only
Well, Covington has completely been taken out of the equation for Friday. We’ve got a measly inch forecast for Friday night. Shouldn’t have got my hopes up.
Yeah I’m disappointed too. We can only hope the storm drifts north at the last minute.
Yesterdays runs and overnight all coming into agreement with the Euro…Euro’s last run at 1:am jogs south also..Look for more of the same today..
12z runs today should tell a whole lot along with 00z runs tonight.
2.2 inches in Annville in Jackson Co
Getiing ready to get Named in Eastern Ky
I hate getting “Named”, especially when I am in Eastern KY! 😉
From my untrained eye NAM way south and much colder than previous runs, ..absolutely crushes central and eastern Kentucky..looks like it is lining up with Euro model….be cautioned though..one model run..if 12Z GFS and Euro agree..major snowstorm here.
Can you post a map please.
Very fine snow still coming down but only seems to be accumulating on roads. Has been snowing here since about 8 am. Temps are around 18. Don’t think we are going to get much more. Maybe we will get a bunch on Friday? Like the snow…the ice, not so much.
MODELS r in agreement for most part, 5/10 inches area wide Central se ky. so not a monster but a decent snow.
That seems like the GFS. The NAM and Euro have more than that and wetter. Question of course is how much of the precip would fall as something other than snow?
Perhaps an average of the models is the “safer” bet. It could very well be 5″ to 10″ due to it not being mainly snow. That would be some nasty stuff.
Shane Smith with WYMT said yesterday with a lot of dry air. It could cause cooling and it might not stay as rain long.
I would be interested in your thoughts on this: BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA: Issued for sustained wind or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 35 mph accompanied by falling and/or blowing snow, frequently reducing visibility to less than 1/4 mile for three hours or more. A Blizzard Watch is issued when these conditions may be met 12 to 48 hours in the future.
Is it possible we get a BW issued for this storm?
Latest NAM: http://puu.sh/mCQCD/cf84820862.png
Chris,
When will your first call be for the big storm later in the week?
Saw earlier that the Charleston NWS issued a WSW early this am. Very unusual for them 2 days ahead. That is a good sign for the Huntington area. And Sarah H. I didn’t watch the local mets nor did I hear them, I got a message on my cell phone.
I noticed we got one too as well last night. They must be expecting something to post this early.
Lol, Jimbo! I thought that was a good sign for us as well. 🙂
I hope this really is the “Big One” Elizabeth…. I mean Sarah H……… Lol
NKY seems to be on the northern edge of the storm. Can someone with more expertise help me understand the realistic possibility of more than a few inches of snow?
Another map: http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-20184-1453301431_thumb.png
Beginning to taper off now here in Eastwood area of Louisville, near Shelby Co. line. Seeing posts about some models coming a little more south with the next system. Any thoughts on a shift to the NW with the coming hours and model runs?
This is going to be a very nasty heavy wet snow so really it don’t matter how much you get it will be bad.
I wonder if snow on the ground will make a difference with the temps
I can’t help thinking that it will. I have a good 3-4 inches in my neighborhood this morning. But if cloud cover remains through tonight, temps may not tank.
Looks like north central Ky may miss out on big snow. It needs to trend northward. Not happening in the short term. Have fun central KY
North Central KY still stands to get a solid 3-6 inched
What models? The aggregate trend is most of Kentucky is in the flow. Question is what actually falls though…
she must be going south they have me getting and inch friday and a inch sat Athens Ohio bummer
Based on what I’ve seen, the ultimate forecast for Lexington could be either 3 to 6 – OR- 4 to 8 inches, unless some more shifting happens.
That seems low unless a big shift south, or a lot of the precip falls other than snow.
GFS lining up with NAM
This could be big. CB must be going nuts though figuring out the map and precip mix.
so sad there goes the snow for the louisville area. 🙁
What are you guys seeing? Average model mix has Louisville. Not that it will stay that way, but even the GFS is going more like the NAM now. The question of course is the mix of what actually falls.
Am I missing something?
We went from 12-14 to hardley nothing.
It can easily shift back your way later today or tomorrow. “Waffles” are the food of choice for these types of beasts.
Right now Louisville 3-5″ maybe 4-6″? If the storm shifts any farther to the south will be less than that. Might have more snow today on the ground in Louisville than we will see Friday.
Over 3″ now in Middlesboro.
you must live in Middlesboro Alaska or Middlesboro Colorado, because i live in Middlesboro and we only have an inch and half
2-3 inches in my part of Knox
Just curious but does the gfs & nam totals take into account the ice & rain factor?
They “try” to, but surface temps, speed of system flow and warm air aloft are things that can trip them up. We have the potential of a big event, but that would be if mainly snow.
The mix is key, but the potential is there.
Those NAM models were eye candy yesterday. Sad to see Louisville is on the outside looking in now.
Your focusing way to much on the models. Models are still trying to gage it will flip flop north central ky looks to get a decent snow but there will be a sharp cutoff.
Its still early. Tonights runs will tell us if we win or lose in the metro.
Well crap…..my cable is OUT, thank goodness I still have Internet. Snowing like crazy right now (11:09) in western Pulaski County.
CB…please keep updating by Twitter and Kentucky weather center..I don’t know when the cable will be back on. Thanks
NCEP model webpage temporarily crashed…LOL
Sooooo excited!!!
Wonder why most of the national forecasting outfits have dropped the forecasted totals for Lexington down to 1″ to 3″, when the models seem to be aligning at 12″.
Any idea?
Not sure, but will wait for CB to update. National mets dropped the ball with the two big events last year, so prefer local perspective.
Accuweather has Lexington at 6-8″. Which seems reasonable as of right now. Weather Channel the same thing.
Well I am making my prediction now! I am predicting a win over Arkansas and win over Vandy in Lexington! Who thinks my forecast will be right? Models – Shmodels! Bring it on! Go Cats!! WW
Snow turned to freezing rain here in Williamsburg KY! I sent pics through Facebook because I can’t figure out how to post on here!
maybe a a half of inch of snow at best so far in carrie of knott county. off and on flakes have been very fine in nature, hard for them to add up to much
4 Maybe 5 inches in McCreary ! Still pouring !!!
After about an inch and half of snow in Corbin it changed over to mix for quite sometime and then changed over to all snow again…
We had ice pellets mix in at Gray
Anticipation
I have yet to see any 5″ amounts from submitted storm reports so far. I had 3.5″ in Valley Station…quite proud of that, until I just finished shoveling it…ugh.
Would not bother me if this next system underperforms this little system.
By the way, I expect a slight jog northward with models by tomorrow at the latest…typical correction
Bonnieville in Hart County had a 5 inch report
This might be one of those storms where Georgetown gets 3 inches, the north side of Lexington gets 5 inches, while the south side gets 8…..and Richmond gets 10..
For Louisville, (at least the maps I’m looking at, which can change) it looks like 2 to 3 inches maybe?
I’m NOT a met and certainly not an expert, so take what I say with a grain of salt…..it’s merely what I’m getting from the maps I’ve looked at, and the fact that Chris hasn’t updated or tweeted – but he needs the rest! But we sure are starting this considerably earlier than last year, that’s for sure.
These kind of storms always follow the KY River. Either Lex gets slammed or Richmond does.
Nws jackson still going with mix to rain for se ky tomorrow and friday.
Looked like a really big snow for Louisville at first, but not at this point. A local met just said that he “predicts” 3-8 inches for Louisville, but that the storm could still go north or south.
My question is: Could it really go north still? It seems like most models keep putting it south.
I have not seen any models like the ones CB was putting out a few days ago with totals. Is there a link to one?
thank you so much for your weather reports. I’ve noticed in the last couple of years how spot on your analysis has been especially for these southern snow makers. It’s incredibly hard to consistently predict winter weather across Kentucky and Tennessee. That’s another thing too; thank you so much for expanding southward into Tennessee with your forecasts. I live in Lewis county tn, and we’re just not used to a lot of winter weather, so it helps so much for someone close by who really knows what they’re doing to include us even though you’re in Kentucky. thanks again for nailing this one too.