Good snowy Wednesday afternoon, everyone. Our current snow maker is pretty much behaving as forecast and is leaving behind snow covered roads all across the bluegrass state. For much of the region, this is likely the appetizer for a much bigger storm moving in from Thursday night through Friday.
This storm brings a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain to the region Thursday night. That action quickly goes over to snow and heavy snow early Friday. Heavy snow will then continue into Friday night across central and eastern Kentucky with wraparound snows into early Saturday.
Winds are going to crank Friday into Saturday with 30-40mph gusts possible. Blowing and drifting snow will be a concern. So, how much snow can we expect? It’s still a little early in the game, but we’re within 48 hours and that’s usually my window to put out a First Call For Snowfall map.
This is just my first take on totals and placement. I will make adjustments to the lines and numbers as we get closer to the storm. That said, there is no denying the possibility of another monster snow hit for much of the region…
When comparing my numbers to the actual numbers coming from the computer models, I’m being conservative across the eastern half of the state.
I will fine tune the numbers later today and on WKYT starting at 4pm.
For now, let’s track the we have out there today…
Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington
I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond
US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort
US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I-64 MP 97
Winchester
Mountain Parkway near Slade
I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown
I-65 MP 32
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I will update things later. Take care.
Thanks
I was hoping for a foot in Shepherdsville, but it looks like we`ll miss out on that, according to your snow map. Lets hope this system moves about 75 miles further northwest.
Here’s hoping for a Northern trend!
YES!
What the chanes of it moving back north?
No
Thanks Chris! We have 5 inches now!
Thanks for the update. Things are going to get real
The Metro is on the slight edge of 3 inches. More today than Friday maybe. Still plenty of winter left.
This very well might be a situation where NE Jefferson County gets 3 inches and SW Jefferson County gets 6 inches. South Central KY and Eastern KY looks to get a good thumping.
OLD SCHOOL A COMING!!!!!! 3.4 inches in Annville Ky received tad over a inch in last our.
Thanks for the update CB! Your first call map looks interesting. Looking forward to see how things trend. Thanks for all you do!
Looks like SW Ohio misses out again. Lived in Keavy a few years and had little snowfalls when it snowed. Moved back to Cincy area August of 14′ and got barely any snow here but SE Ky was hammered. Now we get missed thhis weekend and Most all Ky gets slammed. Go figure. Move north…snow goes south.
(totally tongue in cheek) Thank you! 😉 (your move gave us some good snowfalls I meant)
lol but I want some too
Come on shift to the north.
Louisville needs to be in the 5-12 range
The shift will come
Hope you are right! 🙂
The European model will begin the trend this afternoon.
Think about it if we had three options
1 it stays on track
2 it moves southeast
3 it moves Northwest
Now if you were in Vegas which option would you bet on
I don’t bet but I want it to shift
Northwest.
Ok what if I put a gun to your head lol
Please do not take my sarcasm for real
Oh i’m not lmbo!
Let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope this all blows past us. Would be great if we ended up not getting any more snow or ice.
Eastern Ky is gonna get buried..Gefs showing 17 inches for some places..Wow..
do you have the map?
In unrelated news, Todd Borek is now on the Weather Channel. I remember him from WKYT.
I remember him from WSAZ too!! Haha maybe we can start a new game: 6 Degrees of Chris Bailey!
Looks like Covington area gets left out again. So disappointed.
Which way……I agree with you wholeheartedly that a NW shift of some degree will occur; past typically predicts the future. Won’t take much of one, that is for sure.
I hope it don’t get bad for Rockcastle co ky
Pike, Floyd Magoffin and surrounding areas will be digging out for a month
Nws jackson still got winter mix to rain for se ky and eastern all way to saturday, then snow saturday
What a difference in forcasts. .
A couple inches here in greenup, kind of an over achiever since we were on forecasted an inch lol
Good you only got snow. Nashville TN got freezing rain and sleet with a fair number of accidents. Finally changed to all snow coming down at moderate intensity before ending a short time later; about an inch and a half accumulation snow/ice/sleet.
I would expect the numbers and Chris’s snowfall map will change. Part of it is the track and part of it is the temperatures. I would bet the map will be updated tonight and again tomorrow. Just my opinion.
Awesome that he at least put something out there. I think that is important for planning purposes especially for those traveling or the elderly or those who have to look after people etc….let alone for work reasons. The NWS is just providing a few updates on the current event and no updates on the bigger event. That is kinda pathetic if ya ask me. Hopefully they will have a mid afternoon update on the Friday storm.
Well, the NWS did say it will be a high impact event…that’s why there is a Winter Storm Watch…they just haven’t finalized the details just yet until the waffles are done
Where is the winter storm watch out for? Not trying to get excited, but just wondering what areas are in it at the moment
It’s actually in effect for all of Jackson NWS County Warning Area from Thursday night through Saturday evening . Once the Winter Weather Advisory runs to its finality, the Winter Storm Watch will become visible on graphical maps from the NWS. However, no specific details are being offered at this time.
just going from all the snowmaps ive seen ,…20 to 30 inches seems like a safe bet by sunday morning here in the mountains of WV…with heavy winds also…the B word has been thrown out as a possibility …I hope everyone gets what they are wanting out of this ….my generator is full of gas ,gas jugs full….milk and bread sandwiches on standby..take care
I would have thought a little more north, but the models could care less what I think. Still concerned about ice mix and seems a reason CB has the big ranges for min and max totals for each area going east.
Agree. Now I am questioning if I even want to look at the 18Z GFS and NAM. I may just wait for the 00Z runs tonight.
I jokingly mentioned the 1996 blizzard the other day because the GFS analog had it as the #2 analog a few days ago.
Well, the NAM analog has it as it’s #2 analog at 60 hours out now.
Hoping for a shift to all rain, sick of snow already. Today is enough for the season, too much really. Come One Snow Dome, we need you now!!!
Who won the model war for this mini storm?
Southeast KY isn’t gonna get any snow. Central and northern KY always get all the snow. It’s just not fair
Are you for real? You are in the 5-12” range right now.
Spent 3 winters in far northern KY (Covington area) and we never get as much snow. Last year when everyone got huge snows, we would always average way less. This time, the weather channel says maybe an inch Friday afternoon. Mr. Bailey doesn’t even have my neck of the woods circled on his first call map. 🙁
We have 5 inches in South Corbin already……..
Some of the models were crazy this morning with over 12″ – 14″ of snow for central KY. Chris’ call doesn’t seem to reflect this.
I seen this also…..cant wait till the next update !!
CB has big min & max ranges due to the mix factor and models usually do poorly with that part. Depends on speed of the system as well. Faster is not good for snow lovers.
Most mets are talking double digit snows for most of the area. Even the voice of reason channel was touting 17″ at mid-day today.
Incorrect. They are now saying mainly a mix with some heavy band lines. Their max is CB’s min for the maps.
What we need is a surprise warm front to move through and crush any chance of snow accumulation Thursday and Friday.
Southern Jackson Co. Looks to be in a sweet spot on that map!!!! Yes!!!!!
We have now had the appetizer with the main course to come. I mentioned earlier on another post about dessert and someone commented about another system next week. Any thoughts out there with my fellow bloggers??
Maybe some dessert?
Old man winter has thrown down the guanlet after hiding for a year. I saw BRING IT OLD MAN.
When does the Euro come out?
Euro has already ran
bad, good??
Any thoughts on timing? Everyone keeps saying Thursday night for the beginning….does this mean evening hours, midnight, or past midnight? Trying to adjust plans accordingly….do not want to be out in freezing rain/ice.
Thanks Chris. Looking forward to your next update. From what I have seen on your thoughts, you are calling for pretty much the entire state to get a pretty good whack at some snow. I am not going to get caught up in models, and thoughts. I am going to wait until you call it and then we will know. Have a good afternoon fellow winter weather lovers!
I dunno, but it looks like the system is going to locked in, and loaded about Memphis and dump on everyone.
Thanks for keeping us updated Chris. Great job! Bring on the snow!!!
Central Kentucky a foot of snow awesome
can someone post the euro??
I’m still hanging on to a northward jog from the models as typical correction from previous overcorrection. Over Under Done…reminds me of the Airplane movie years ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrRdy4BAYp0
according to CB’s tweet that has already started to take place on the Euro, now rather it is right or wrong.
I didn’t see him say anything about a northward trend. I must have missed that tweet.
He stated the euro came in and looked like his first snow map he posted.
His 1st “call” map above. Which means he doesn’t see any changes. IMO
We are 24-36 hours from the onset. A huge jog to either north or south is fairly unlikely. There will be minor variations, but models seem to be converging
The other channel known for voicing reason is saying we are just on the edge of this and mainly a mix with some heavy snow bands depending on the track. Their max snow appears to be CB’s min totals. Such big differences for local mets. Uncanny how this plays out almost every time snow is involved.
Ended-up with about 3″ pr so at my place.
Waiting for the next system. As long as we get one big snow, I’ll be happy for this winter
NWS in Louisville has added a stripe of Indiana counties to the Winter Storm Watch.
Yes my county was one of them(harrison) i am concerned about the ice.
I think they are just covering for a northward wobble. I haven’t seen anything to suggest that.
CB extremely conservative. 5-12 for my area. Weather channel actually has my area 12-18 with .25-.50 of ice. What are they seeing so diff. All the models have my area over a foot of snow
We ended up with 3 inches of snow here in the northern part of Clay County. Can’t wait to add the 8-14 inches on top of that.
join Fans of Chris Bailey clay county chapter to discuss the storm on facebook, ole ROLO posting every now then.
Sitting at 5″ in Middlesboro. Parts of Knoxville received 3-5″ as well and has been something of a “shutdown” storm.
Wow – first time I’ve seen an accident caught on one of the webcams (see I-275 above).
Louisville International beat me again? I have seen a report from Wave3 Weather Blog that says Louisville got 3.7″. I had 3.5″ in Valley Station…umph.
Mike, if it makes you feel any better, I only got 3″ on the nose at my new house. I’m in Eastwood now, instead of Springhurst/Worthington Hills
So, hey, you did it, buddy!
Yes!! Finally….
Charleston NWS just sent out a message on my phone for 12 to 16 inches of snow in the Chas/Hunt area. About the same time a tv met was on screen touting the warm wedge cutting totals way down in this area. He wouldn’t give a accumulation prediction though.
When does the next run of anything run?
The NAM is running now. The GFS will run an hour later. Both of them run every six hours. The Euro runs twice a day…at midnight and noon.
Nam 18z yesterday had 16-18 up the Ohio River. Lets see what it shows today.
NAM is south.
NAM is really south. It has jogged and jogged South/South East. If this continues we will only have a deck duster by Friday. In fact it were to verify… I doubt it goes this far South…. Then again….
I said this yesterday and I’ll say it again the NAM is having feedback issues in my opinion.
It has to be, because this is ridiculous.
The NAM says no snow for anyone unless you are in SE Kentucky. Louisville and Lexington wouldn’t see anything at all if this is correct. Just think, it was the same model showing 14-20” yesterday and the day before.
My point exactly feedback issues. Let’s see what the other models say
The Euro trended a little north with the actual track of the low on the 12Z run, so the waffling has begun. I am more interested in the 00Z runs tonight, and the 12Z runs tomorrow. I don’t get too bent on the 06 or 18Z runs, unless the event is ringing the doorbell.
Do not put your guard down if your north of the I-64 corridor. The NW jog still can still easily happen.
Yes it can. The 00Z runs on all the models will tell a lot more than the 18Z runs.
I only use the 0z and 12z runs of the NAM, never use the 6z and 18z….
I second that motion!
Hope it moves north.
See Below!!! As much as I would love to see it shift NW just not going to.
C’on northward correction! Don’t let me down!
Nam buries SE KY
The new NAM leaves out Louisville and all points along the Ohio River to Covington. It looks to me like it went southeast around 50 miles…perhaps because it’s not as strong as the earlier model run. So everyone can look at the previous map and just move the totals 50 miles se.
that is a horrible run of the NAM….if you see the others jump, then ok. Until then, since when do we ever use the 18z NAM is a rule?
THE NAM is junk, watch the EURO and GFS this evening, NAM will come back
I am a big believer in the NORTHWEST Shift. But I will say that with the current snow pack that #2 will stay south and us here in the Louisville area will be on the lighter side of the totals. Someone along the Eastern Ky Parkways will e getting hammered. Still time for change, but I don’t see much movement in the above snow predictions by CB.
I’m not so sure. What are you considering by lighter totals?
General rule of thumb is a low will usually follow a track where the snowpack is which would be on the Kentucky/Tennessee border. The NAM has the low position way too far south.
We all know the 18z is junk. It will correct itself. I don’t see Louisville being left out, but just advisory level snow though.
Louisville intrigues me on this storm I wouldn’t be shocked to see Goshen get 3 inches and SW Jefferson County places like Fairdale, Valley Station get 6 inches.
THIS! As someone once said…snow begets snow
That would be me. It sounded poetic.
Yup! I remember…always liked it! 🙂
you’re my favorite
🙂
No we got 3″ of snow here in se tn sw of Knoxville so snow pack is almost to ga. State line
The 18Z shows a complete miss for the Louisville area. Live by the models, die by the models.
I don’t have any expertise in the meteorological field, but the models runs today seem to be confounding the time honored tradition of the northwest trend.
A new era has started the era of the South East trend. Not really. At this point the waffles are still cooking. Probably won`t be done until tonight/early tomorrow.
The northwest trend is old and worn out. Time for something new. Introducing the Southeast trend!
It is ironic to me that the area in Kentucky that will probably get most of the snow from the late week system is the only area not under a WSW.
I believe the track will trend north west, If the snow pack to the south melts tomorrow,, the low will track northward. Just a matter of time.
I’m in Louisville, right on the river, just west of downtown. I want more snow!!!!!! 🙂
I agree and the north/northwest jog might not be apparent and as late as the tomorrow afternoon model runs.
Yeah I cannot see the low going any further south than the model is indicated.
Chas/Hunt area mets pretty much ignored today’s system. It isn’t a big snow but it has had a high impact, roads are treacherous and I64 is shutdown in places. Now they are all over it with total team coverage of the storm. Same ones who discounted today, telling us the warm wedge will protect us Friday. One went so far as to say ” Friday won’t be a problem ” but maybe Saturday morning. I guess he could be right. Who knows.
Unbelievable!!!!
ive given up on all our local mets here in WV …they go by 1 model …then when they are wrong , they correct themselves on the fly but never say anything about being dead wrong
Well, GFS, what say ye? All eyes in Ky are now on you!
GFS now running, we’ll find out what it shows withing the next 30 minutes.
Can someone explain the logic behind not using the 6z or 18z NAM? Is this like a thing in the met world to discount those runs? I’m just trying to understand because I see several of you saying that…What’s up with that? Thanks 🙂
It’s just normally an OFF run
The typical explanation is it is a “rush” run with less input data, etc. This has been discussed for several years and seems to be generally accepted. But still it’s fun to check them out!
US and the rest of the world send out air balloons and record the data thousands of feet above the Earth right around the same time, that time is 00z and 12z which is 7pm, and 7am EST. This data feeds into all the 00z and 12z models and they run. The problem usually is that the 06z and 18z runs don’t use the most up-to-date data and can really s-crew things up. So usually people call 06z and 18z runs trash because a lot of times they are. Today is an exception though, most people on here saying this 18z run of the NAM and GFS is trash are wrong because balloons were released at 18z today because of the upcoming storm. So we have sampled this storm 3 times already and will be sampled a 4th time. I believe all 4 runs should have accurate data and sampling tomorrow too. Once blizzard in mid-Atlantic is over with, it is back to the normal sampling twice a day.
bingo
Though it is not “trash,” there is still less data input than your usual 00z and 12z runs like Tom has mentioned.
That’s a fascinating bit of info. I did not know this. Thanks!
New GFS looks to me like the same report we got at noon today. It keeps several inches around Louisville to Cincy into southern 1/3 of Ohio. No surprises here.
Link
Chris congrats on nailing this first storm to the wall. Thats whats impressive about chris he discusses possibilities way out tunes into the storm as it approachs and tells us when to get serious. No blind siding he always tries to prepare us. Thank you Chris.
Best in the business!
Wow! Just heard a Lou met say total was 3.7″ and that was right in line with the forecast they gave… I don’t remember them saying that. I had 3″ in shelbyville this morning and they were still saying 1 to 2 inches. Chris’s forecast was on though.
18z GFS has held in place, and slightly stronger. 18z NAM has shifted south, and 12z ECMWF has held in place, and slightly stronger as well. (compared to 00z) All 1ft+ for eastern KY, and the heaviest band in nearly the same location. But all differ on amount, once you get into central and south central KY. All show a miss along the Ohio river and north. Lexington is on the northern edge on all models around the 6 inch mark. More south, and east KY. NW trend usually kicks in before 36 hrs if it ever does happen. Having a tough time seeing that trend, because all models have been trending south for past 24-36 hours. We’ll see…
In fact, look at this image I found about the weather balloon launches they’ve been doing every 6 hours because of the winter storm.
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZMddPGW0AE7vmb.png
Can you tell me what those balloons can tell them that planes, and satellites CAN’T!
More sampling won’t make it move north. Looks like central KY get’s the prize.
ouch, I’m in Louisville and the party is moving south…
How’s the Ashland area looking?
System is at least 36 hours out sometime Friday morning perhaps a couple of hours before sunrise for Louisville area.
Over the years, I have seen models correct up to the event. Sometimes, the models do not even make it. Thank goodness for short-range models.
Anyway, the 0z run and 12z run of the NAM, this evening’s and tomorrow morning’s, will go a long way to sample the data some more.
Actually, I like the GFS more than the Euro in this close despite the hi-res factor of the Euro but would like to see how both the GFS and NAM compare in these next two runs (0z and 12z, NOT 18z and 06z).
Ended up with around 2 inches in Carrie of knott county. Guess I’ll spend tomorrow getting the generator and propane ready
How about a couple counties south of Louisville?
That was supposed to be a reply to Israel
Reports are the snow around Nashville have already melted which could mean a northern trend since the low likes to follow.snowpack… Time will tell
The snowpack has absolutely nothing to do with the track of the low. A lot of the track depends on the jet stream!
There are meteorologists that believe otherwise.
According to different meteorologists on my twitter, it does
yup…I thought the same thing.
you’re wrong, Steve….wait until you wake up tomorrow and you here talk of a NW jog because of that snow melt happening in Tennessee!
The snow pack in BG is still alive and well.
NWS is saying 1 -3″ here in Owensboro area while CB has it 3-8 on his first call. I am really hoping the track will trend a little north so we can get toward the high end of CJ’s first call. CB does an amazing job and somehow covers all of KY on the blog. My question is if anyone sees Oboro getting in on the 3+ inches ball game? I know CB has no time to respond to this!
NWS already not giving any accumulation for Knox further north would not help if their forecast is right
Clays Ferry Bridge over the KY river @ mile marker 99-97
Air 25* Pavement 27.3* Subsurface 32.9*
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif <——–
WPC's updated map. They show slight risk of 4", 8", or 12". This is the new updated risk of 12" snow. I'm kind of surprised actually….
If this storm keeps going farther south, is there a chance central Ky will get nothing more then a few inches?
I’m not buying a significant shift south.
well time to get prepared, this system starts in about 24 hours
Storm A Bust for me Here In Athens Ohio 50% chance Of Snow Friday And 1” And Sat Partly Cloudy
Stole this from Brian Goodes twitter…for what it’s worth:
“RPM did shift back north and…heavier. But expect more adjustments for several more runs. So I am not posting the map.”
How is Chris Bailey can predict weather so well but all other local mets are usually dead wrong? What does he do differently?
4K Nam just posted over on accuweather forums.
shows 22 inches for Portsmouth area.
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=277248
Yawnnnn, someone say snow? 😉 Woke up this old timer to this site.
Holy tug of war, people! Peace!
It shifts north, south freaks out….it shifts south, north freaks out. Its gonna dump where it dumps. Enjoy the ride. 🙂