Good Sunday, everyone. The historic winter storm is now in our rearview mirror and it’s time to look ahead, and see where this pattern is going. Can we keep up this torrid pace of harsh winter weather? That depends on what happens with a southern stream system in the week ahead.
In the short-term, temps today will start below zero for some as our snowpack does some serious work on thermometers. Later this afternoon temps hit the upper 20s to low 30s with partly sunny skies. This is a good day for Kentucky to start to really dig out.
A cold front marches toward the bluegrass state Monday night into Tuesday morning. Temps will be fun to watch during this time. The snowpack is a big player, obviously. Without a strong southerly flow, thermometers won’t respond much ahead of our front.
What may end up happening is readings stay in the 30s for many on Monday… climb some Monday night… then drop on Tuesday as the front moves through. The NAM afternoon temps…
That front will have a band of rain and snow showers along it as it zips in here.
We then focus our attention toward the possibility of a storm system developing in the Gulf and impacting the weather across the eastern part of the country. The Canadian continues to show such a system…
The evolution of any such storm will depend on what happens with the upper level energy swinging through the base of the trough digging in. If you want a storm to develop, your best bet would be for option one…
If that system slows and breaks away from the main trough, option 2 would likely carry that system across the Gulf without producing a storm of consequence in the east. For a storm, you want that system to interact with the northern branch of the jet stream. We shall see.
The overall pattern is likely to relax a bit over the next few weeks, but that doesn’t mean winter weather threats won’t be with us. The Canadian Model to start February has a nice look to it with storm systems working west to east across the country with cold air to the north of them…
I keep getting asked if I think we will have another winter storm before this winter wraps up. My answer… Yes, I think we could squeeze a couple out to be honest. But, that doesn’t mean they will be as extreme as the one we just had.
I will update things later today. Make it a good Sunday and take care.
If this is the worst..I can live with that.
I know how snowpack can affect temperatures, but I question some Mesonet readings, like Richmond. I bet if I had my weather station with indoor/outdoor temperature, it would not register -7 already. I would say between 3 and 5 above. I am sure someone in Richmond has a weather station at home. Loved to hear what they’re reading.
Lexington Mesonet at 15 degrees? Even the official site at BG airport that Bailey bashes from time to time is at 12, and looking at precipitation amounts from the other day, they were nearly the same. Lexington Mesonet has consistently registered nearly 3 degrees warmer than airport at night and 3 degrees cooler during the day, when there have been clear conditions.
Back to the colder part, there are other Mesonet sites with similar amounts of snow that are not below zero yet but are getting close.
I accidentally hit Post Comment and did not finish my rant…those areas that have lots of snow and are near zero I believe are more reflective of the surrounding area and will possibly dip below zero overnight, including Richmond if you have a home weather station.
On the national weather service lexington page, when you click 3 day history, what’s up with the precip? It almost looks like inches of rain, but it can’t be..
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLEX.html
I believe they report the liquid equivalent so in a sense yes they are reporting how much rain would have fallen it it had been all rain. Which brings up a question I posted yesterday about the snow to liquid ratio – it wasn’t very high in the Lexington area if, if fact, those measurements are liquid, i.e. the old 10:1 rule of thumb would have brought us over 40 inches and I measured on average 8 in my southeast Lexington location.
I saw that too earlier when I was ranting about Mesonet sites. Even the official observation sites are freezing up. There is no way to have light snow over that period of time and get close to 2″ of liquid equivalent.
In fact the actual liquid amount was 0.04″ and 0.8″ snowfall yesterday.
http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=lmk
Try this one…if the above does not work.
http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lmk
Thank you for your commitment to accurate forecasts! I work in healthcare and travel a significant distance to work. Your ongoing updates allow me to remain safe and provide continued care during weather events. Keep up the good work! It’s greatly appreciated!
My indoor outdoor thermometer says a perfect zero right now (5:30 am), 4 miles southeast of BG.
Looking at all of the storm reports from Louisville and Jackson CWA, I thought the snowfall totals were very realistic, not hyped or overdone. It would be something else to see a 3-ft snow drift and mistaken that for a level measurement. But, I kinda wished drift amounts were included next to the totals because those may be hazards unseen. I recall walking in snow up to my calf looking out what appeared to be level ground and then suddenly snow up to my waist because all the snow collected into a depression. Or one time in 1994, my dog could not go out the back door as snow had piled up 3 ft high.
Chris it is -8 here in Morgan co
It is 0 here in Warren co.
It’s a cold -6 here in Fleming County this morning!
Made it to 0 even without the deepest snowpack
Looking forward to the 40 degree temps TWC is giving for today and 50 tomorrow LoL
The other local channels are sticking to their upper 30 and low 40 degree guns this week. Interesting to see who is correct.
Actually mid to upper 40s.
Andy is the snow differential from town to Bimble that much different? We have close to double digits with both systems here in town. I know the cutoff was sharp going into Bell Co., so it wouldn’t surprise me seeing some difference the closer you get to the county line.
I have close to 5 inches from the 2nd system and I got 3 to 4 with the Wednesday system but a lot of that was washed away by freezing rain
10 degrees all the way down here in se tn with 1 or 2″ of snow left
Hey Tim!
Nashville airport (BNA) dropped to 12 degrees. Eight inches total from storm at airport, up to ten inches in other parts of Davidson County, (about seven inches here); most of that snow still left. But about to crack freezing with sun.
My folks in Chattanooga/Cleveland TN area got about an inch at their place.
Two moderate snows for Rodger in 56 hours this week! Snow on snow is a rarity and he loved it. Rodger thinks Mr Bailey is correct that we’re not done yet. Another seven weeks of winter. Looking forward to it! Rodger in Dodger
Thanks for the update, Chris. I hope we do get a few more snow storms this winter. Sure is fun to anticipate and follow.
Ok, is that forecast I am seeing on WKYT the actual forecast or is there a mistake. The 7 day forecast does not take the temps above 32. It also shows snow likely 80% for Monday.
Then I scrolled and saw the Micah Harris Forecast: “A break from the bitter cold on Sunday and Monday as most rise above freezing before our next system moves in on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Luckily for us this looks like mostly rain.”
For my area I have to wonder. If we stay below freezing today, which is seems like we will are or 32 at most. I have to wonder how this rain would effect us. We would still have that 17 inches of snow laying in the road in all likelihood. And then throw some rain into that. And most forecasts I have seen, even the ones with warmer temps drop things back below freezing. I remember a situation like this some years back and it made my road a sheet of ice that was not safe for any type of travel. The salt trucks could not even cross the hill to do anything.
Of course some forecasts are calling for 46-48 degrees for my area and rain. Some big differences in forecasts. Some of the biggest I have seen.
Ok we had are big snow. Now I’m ready for 75 degrees and the frogs singing there love chants.
33 here in Carrie of knott co at 1pm dunno why we couldn’t hit 40s tomorrow
The mesonet here says 29 and getting a reading of 27 at my place which has generally been a degree or 2 lower than the mesonet. But accuweather and the weather.com site say 34 currently. Not sure I believe that 34 for my area. Guess it is possible though. Do wonder if we can get to the 47 or 48 they predict for tomorrow. You would think that if clear skies persist tonight the snow pack would allow temps to drop down pretty good though.
How big do you think the snows will be