Good Thursday everyone! I was trying to think of a catchy title since I am covering everything from our showers to a major hurricane heading toward Texas. Rain and pain is the best I could do! 
I have a ton of tracking maps for Ike for you. But, let’s start locally.
Our Thursday will feature an increase in temps, humidity, clouds and eventually showers and storms. These will be especially prominent across the south and then later on in the afternoon and evening. Highs will hit the low 80s as the muggies start to move back in.
A cold front will move toward us Friday before putting the brakes on near the Ohio River. Exactly where this front stalls out is critical as to who gets the heaviest rain and thunderstorms. Odds strongly favor the northern part of Kentucky getting in on the heavy rainfall with the southern counties seeing more scattered stuff. I actually agree with what the GFS is showing in the short term with the rain… but I strongly disagree with it beyond Saturday. More on that later. Here is what it’s spitting out in terms of rainfall into Saturday morning…
You see what I am talking about in terms of the heaviest rains being mainly in the north. Now… this is all about the front and how far south it gets before sensing what all is going on in the Gulf.
Here are some local radars for you to track the showers and storms…
Hurricane Ike continues to ramp up in the Gulf of Mexico. This is a strengthening hurricane and can easily reach Category 4 strength before coming ashore on the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday. The track on this bad boy is getting closer and closer to the Galveston and Houston areas and that would be a major disaster if this storm comes ashore near those cities. Here are some tracking maps for Ike…
Once we get into Monday… what is left of Ike will be turning the corner and working to the northeast into the Ohio Valley. The GFS continues to be either lost in the woods with Ike or scoring one heck of a coup as all the other models have been showing this storm working through our region for several runs now. The hurricane models above are coming around to the idea the European has been showing for the past several days. Here is what it is showing for Monday…
That would bring very heavy rain and and winds to the region Monday and would be followed by a chilly air mass for Tuesday and Wednesday.
I will have all sorts of tracking maps and cams for Ike on the blog as we get closer to landfall so be sure and check back.
Take care.
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Thanks again
Thanks Chris! Reading the world “rain” and “in our region’ in the same sentence is nice to the eyes! I have a lot of plans for the weekend, but I’ll gladly forgo doing then in nice weather since we are bone dry here in the central part of the state!
And I do like those catcy headlines!
Thanks Chris…PRAY for those in Ike’s path.
My thoughts EXACTLY, William.
My mom got some info from a site called ImpactWeather.com. It shows her town, Brookshire, to be in the middle of hurricane force winds for an extended perion of time. She’s 80 miles inland and thinks she’ll be fine. I am going nuts today. She needs to get the heck out of Dodge but is worried about looters and that sort of thing. (plus she has a lot of dogs and cats that would be in the car with her)
This is scaring me half to death.
Visible
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis
Infrared
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir
Let’s try again….the last few chances for rain, our region has swung and missed. Time to hit the ball. The rain can’t miss us forever. Good luck Texas coast.
OK, KP, try a different angle. From my experience, the worst part about a hurricane…any hurricane, is what comes AFTER the storm. No power for at least a week, maybe longer. No AC. Hot, sweltering humidity. No stores open. No ice. No food. No gas. Snakes. Scam artists.
Vienna sausage for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
And that’s not even considering damage.
Trees down on your house. Electrical wires in your yard. Crap from three blocks away in your yard and on your house.
Something that I think needs to be watched is the severe wx threat for the Ohio Valley especially Kentucky if the center of Ike does indeed follow the path the Euro shows. We could end up in the tornado threat area pretty easily with this system if things work out as currently predicted…
Praying for her, and for you as you help her sort through her emotions and make the best decision.
ike’s path is now known to us we can start getting a feel for the impact. right now 2-4 inches ( locally up to 12 for the weekend) of rain gusty winds ( NHC track has a 25 kt=30 mph ike over my house at 96 hr) and some tornadoes as wxman stated are a good bet. the tornado threat will be highest on the se side of ike. timing appears to be monday morning.
You better hope we dont get 12″ of rain especially here in the mnts. and the River basins… That would be the Most catastrophic event this state has ever seen. I mean we had a 4″ rainfall back in 1977 that just about completely destroyed Harlan,Pineville,Barbourville,and Williamsburg on the Cumberland River…a 12″ rain would completely wipe us off the map !! We do need rain but not that much at one time…:(
i doubt very many will get close to that and those who do will likely be in the northern part of the region. 1-2 locally 4 from the front ( north) and then 2-5 locally 8 or so from ike. you would have to very unlucky to get 12 from all of this.
I don’t think Ike’s path into the OH Valley is set in stone yet. It’s very hard to say exactly how it will interact with that shortwave trough coming in from the NW. I do expect rain/storms here and probably some severe wx somewhere around here. But nothing is certain yet I don’t think.
Kp has your mom decided to move????? My prayers are with you and her.We are having rain and leaves are blowing right now in Pikeville.God bless all the victims and their family and our fireman of 9/11/2001
Mom just told me that her subdivision is under mandatory evacuation due to flooding. There is a creek that runs right past her house. She doesn’t know what to do with her animals but hopefully one of my other relatives will let her stay with them. I don’t think she has time to head out of the path of the storm. She said I-10 is already clogged with traffic.
Stay tuned and thanks for all the good thoughts.
crystal,
Thanks for your concern. Mom has no choice now. She’s under mandatory evacuation. It was just ordered at 2 p.m. her time. (Thursday) She’s sending out the SOS to various people and one person already offered to take her and the six pets. But that person is pretty far away. Hopefully somebody closer will make the same offer.
Thanks again!
I can’t imagine what your Mom is going through……….and what you are going through too!!!!!! All these folks will be in my prayers.
I wouldn’t worry about the 12 inches of rain yet Tim if Chris says it there may be the potential then we may have to start making plans
As of 7:30 our time, my mom is not leaving despite being under a mandatory evacuation. She says the storm is losing its strength and won’t be as bad as predicted. Still, there will be lots of flooding and lots of power outages and it is in the mid-90’s every single day. It will be miserable.
I hope that is not a tidal creek she lives by. Nothing I’m looking at says the storm is losing strength.
Here’s something pretty neat. If you both have land line phones, you may be able to talk all the way through it. With all of the buried phone cables these days, the storm just won’t affect those connections. Cell service will be down by tomorrow evening down there.
I hope thing s work out okay.
KP….I’m so sorry you have to be so far away from your Mom during all this. I know you must feel so helpless. I’ll say a prayer for your Mom that she and her pets stay safe.