Good Wednesday everybody! Boy… we have a ton of weather to go through over the next several days and we have talked about all that for several days now. Our weather for this Wednesday is going to be nothing short of awesome so enjoy it before we get into a stormy pattern. More on that in a bit.

It’s the time of year many people start looking ahead to fall and winter and wondering what kind of winter is in store for us. I have posted several loooong range models in recent weeks that suggest it’s going to be a cold one. The farmers almanac is going for “numbing cold” for much of the country as well. Now we can add one of the finest folklore forecasters in the world to that “cold” list… and her is from right here in Kentucky. Dick Frymire has been making winter forecasts for more than 30 years. He bases his forecasts on various “barnyard” methods and has been featured nationally on many occasions.

Here is an article I came across from a weather board that I thought you may enjoy… especially the headline and second page…






It’s a lot of fun to follow along with Mr. Frymire’s forecasts. I have been doing it since I was a kid and it is something I really look forward to each year. I know… I need a life!

Now… about the weather around here. Our Wednesday is wonderful before our weather turns ugly with the chance for a lot of rain around here.

Highs today will be in the mid to upper 70s with mainly sunny skies for most after some morning fog. Southeastern Ky will likely have more in the way of clouds and even the risk for a stray shower or storm.

Thursday will feature a return of tropical air to the state on a southwesterly wind. Highs will warm into the lower 80s with scattered showers and storms going up during the afternoon.

Showers and storms will become widespread Thursday night and Friday and this will likely continue into Saturday. Several waves of storms will be likely meaning the threat for very heavy rains will be with us. With a tropical air mass in place combining with a stalled out front near the Ohio River… excessive rainfall will be a possibility as well. I also will be watching for the threat for some strong thunderstorms during this time.

The front is likely to attempt to lift to the north at some point late Saturday into Sunday. This may give us a very warm and humid period with only some scattered storms. How much of a period is up in the air and we won’t be able to nail it down for a few more days.

After Sunday… it’s all about what happens to the remnants of Hurricane Ike. Before I get into that… you can track Ike right here…







[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
































Ike is likely to be a major hurricane when it hits Texas Friday night. A deep trough will be digging into the plains over the weekend and can easily pick up Ike and swing it toward our region by Monday. It could also miss it and leave it behind for a few days.

The European Model has been saying for several runs now that the trough catches Ike and lifts the storm into the OV. Here are some maps from the European to show what I am talking about. I did a little art work on them for you to better understand…

EURO Monday Morning










The European model has had some friends showing similar outcomes. If the above maps verify… we would be looking at a lot of wind and rain come Sunday night and Monday. We will continue to watch it.

The GFS continues to waffle on what to do with Ike after it comes ashore. Anyone using one run of the GFS to base a forecast on in this pattern is nothing short of lazy. The blog will be on GFS Forecaster Watch over the next few days!!!

Lost in all the shuffle is a shot of chilly air moving in late Monday into the middle of next week!

Lots of information in the post… I hope you found something you liked. Take care my friends and we will chat again later Today or Tonight.