Good Monday to one and all and welcome to a new work week. We are coming off a pretty good weather weekend for most of the state. We started it out with some much needed rains then ended it with some sunshine and decent temps.
We are going into a very busy weather pattern over the next week and likely beyond. It’s a pattern that can bring frequent rain chances and normal to below normal temps. Our first chance of rains will be with us Monday night into Tuesday as a cold front moves through.
Central and eastern Kentucky will see the best chances for showers and thunderstorms. That will especially be the case the farther east you live in the state. Amounts of a half inch or a little better should be noted in some areas and I could even see a strong storm in the east Tuesday. The models are showing generally the same areas getting the best rains but differ a bit on the amounts. Here they are…
NAM Rainfall
GFS Rainfall
Once we are through with the Tuesday rains… much cooler air will move in for Wednesday with highs in the mid and upper 70s with lows down toward the 50-55 degree range.
By Thursday… yet another front will be moving into the plains states. Our winds will switch to the southwest and we will get into a very moist air mass. Showers and some thunderstorms may develop before the day is over as tropical moisture streams northward from the gulf of mexico. Since we will likely have a major hurricane down there at the time… heavy rains from Thursday into Friday cannot be ruled out. It is actually a situation that needs to be watched from the end of the week into the weekend.
As I mentioned… a lot of the extended forecast beginning with the coming weekend will be dictated by what Hurricane Ike does in the Gulf of Mexico. It will likely make landfall by the end of the week anywhere from Louisiana to northern Mexico. The farther north and east that landfall is… the better chance it brings us more tropical rains.
Here are some maps for you to use in tracking the system…
![[Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/143311W_sm.gif)
Remember several days ago when I shared a seasonal model forecast with you guys? That was from the month of August. That model has updated now that we are into September and will put a lot of smiles on winter lovers across the country if it verifies. Check it out…
Now THAT is a cold fall and winter my friends! 
I will update things again later Monday so make sure you check back. Take care.
Chris,now all i need is a fur coat and a fuzzy hat oh i need to go shopping…..
Oh yeah! Chili weather! Football! Bondfires! Now those temps will make it feel like the fall season should be!
It’s wild that the GFDL and HWRF hurricane models are both predicting Ike to make landfall in the exact same spot Gustav did…and at the same approach angle. Crazy stuff…
That is one heck of a “cone” for Ike. All the way from Mexico to the Florida panhandle. He could still go virtually anywhere.
LOL… I’m just getting caught up on the ” BUZZ OFF ” section.. Its been caotic around here for the past several days, and I’m behind on the weather blog… HOW DARE ME !!… I know…lol..
Bee’s, Chris, and Tighty whitey’s..Hmmm.. not a good visual..lol…lol…and I bet when he went running in the house Scarlett was kicking him right back out..lol..
Now back to our regularly scheduled programming..
Hopefully those analog charts above hold true, as long as we get some good snowstorms to go along with it…What a sight to see, U.K. football game being delayed due to excessive snowfall on the field, call in the plows boys!!!
Maybe this will be the winter I have been waiting for.
Just a reminder to anyone having problems leaving comments. You must be on https://www.kyweathercenter.com to leave comments instead of kentuckyweathercenter.com.
Carry on! 🙂
I’ve lived here almost seven years and have never seen ‘winter’ yet…. of course I am from Northern Idaho, so I’m used to real winters. I sure hope it dumps it on us, makes for better skiing that’s for sure. And lots of laughs watching people drive in it. Have a great day everyone……
If we don’t get some rain soon, count on watering restrictions and I am surprised the fire warnings aren’t at a more hightened alert lately. come on Rain.
thanks chris, Like the looks of that winter model.
I disparately need to know about Friday. Rain plan or outside?
Winter looks fun!!
Thanks Chris…Based on the maps, I have a feeling that this winter will be very interesting…Mr. Heatmiser, watch out!
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