Hello my friends! I hope this blog post finds each of you well. We continue to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Fay as it gets set to roar ashore on the Gulf coast of Florida. Fay has been slowly intensifying over the past 24 hours and now looks good on sat and radar shots.
Here is a sat shot from around midnight…
A radar animation from the same time…
You can definitely see an eyewall trying it’s best to develop. Fay could easily become a hurricane early Tuesday morning as it continues to work to the northeast.
The models continue to slug it out. The tropical based models take Fay to central Florida or just offshore then due north or even northwest while the Dynamic models slow it down and keep it near Florida for the next 5 days or so…
It is going to be an interesting couple of days for forecasters. I have a feeling Fay will be a much stronger storm if it can get to the warm gulf stream waters of the east coast. The GFS and many other models keep it just offshore from Jacksonville for several days. This would cause incredible rainfall and beach erosion all the way to North Carolina.
Florida is likely to get beaten up pretty bad this week. That’s especially true if the GFS is right as it takes the storm BACK cross the state into the Gulf and hitting the Florida Panhandle. This would make an incredible 4th landfall on the state if it works out that way.
The pattern is one that, regardless of where and when this storm comes ashore, should move what’s left of Fay in our direction over the weekend or early next week. It’s not set in stone… but it is something we need to be watching out for as a distinct possibility.
As I have mentioned… some showers and storms will be possible well out ahead of the storm around here by the end of the week. Until then… it gets toast as we make a run toward 90.
I will update things again later today so make sure you check back.
Take care.
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No effects from Fay yet here in Jacksonville. We had some clouds yesterday but that was it. Just saw on the weather channel that Fay may sit just off our coast and come back towards us stronger then its landfall tody, scary.
Stay aware Jake. Don’t take anything for granted when it comes to your safety! Please keep us updated.
Thanks Chris for the update.
I have property on the barrier islands just off from Port St. Lucie. We were hammered with Jeanne and Francis. It was terrible. Our condo was spared because we were on 6th floor and our storm shutters held. First floor units were destroyed. Blown out from one end to the other by sand, wind and water. The swimming pool was completely filled with water. Now there is very little evidence that a hurricane had been through. I get jumpy though just hearing that one is getting close.
Thanks for all that info Chris.
Just wondering, what factors are indicating that the storm could snake around so much? Some of the models show it turning back to the west quite abruptly. Why would that happen?
I just wanted to say, that whatever problems I disagree with you, you have provided a great insight into my homeland every day.