Happy Monday everyone! The title of the post is likely a question that will be asked a whole lot over the next few days. We have been seeing some decent agreement among the models. The tropical models and the dynamical models like the NAM and GFS are starting to show some disagreement as of late Sunday night.
Both the tropical and dynamical models are consistently showing the Tampa area as the prime spot for a land falling hurricane. It is after that we start to see some disagreement. Here is a look at some of the model runs from a little earlier Sunday evening…
That is a pretty decent spread showing up with several models going waaay west with the landfall. The latest models I have looked at are centered on the Tampa area for a landfall. The National Hurricane Center agrees…
Some of my favorite models I have looked are the HWRF and GFDL. They are hurricane based models and both take this storm across Florida to just offshore from Jacksonville, Fla. Yes they take Fay across the sunshine state them bring her over open water and strengthen the storm once again. The two models I just mentioned then take the storm toward Savannah, GA or into South Carolina then right on top of eastern Ky by the weekend.
There is increasing model support for this type of a track among both the tropical and dynamical models. Several of the dynamical models slow this system down big time once it gets across Florida. The latest GFS then takes it back across Florida into the Gulf again then keeps it there for several days.
Moral of the story… the only thing I am fairly certain of is that Florida could get hammered over the next several days. When and how hard remains to be seen.
We stand a good shot at seeing Fay have an impact on our weather by late week or the weekend. This is going to be one heck of a tough forecasting week. Regardless of Fay… there is a weakness in the atmosphere that will be stretching from the western Gulf into the Ohio Valley from Thursday into the weekend. This will pump a tropical air mass into the state. This in itself will be able to produce some tropical showers and thunderstorms. If Fay gets involved… watch out. That’s only a IF right now.
I know I have rambled with this post. It’s late at night and I have a 5 year old to get ready for a first day of school Monday. 
I think I am more nervous than she is!!
I will post again later Today. Take care everybody!
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Oh Chris, I well remember the first day of pre-school, I was standing on the sidewalk crying and she was standing in the window waving and laughing. Then the saddest day was moving her into the dorm at Transy, I knew she would never be back home for good. As she is entering into her senior year, I still have the empty nest syndrome. I look around and wonder what happened as time has moved so swiftly. I miss her every day. Chris, you have a few years before going thru this, but those years pass by quickly. Well, before the tears start flying (lol), looks like we are in for a juicy weather week. Hope you are enjoying your new life…
Yesterday was a sunny day here on the First Coast untill about 6pm, then it started to rain(not Fay related) while walking along the beach. Then the rest of the evening was just dreary. The local news has had Fay still being a Cat 1 when it passes west of Jacksonville to just below a Cat 1, a Tropical Storm. They also said it could always head towards the panhandle.
Still Watching,
Jake
Thanks for the information. I agree with you, I think Fay will ride up the east coast after it hits Florida. We have two girls of our own (a first grader and a second grader) so I can sympathize with you. The first day of kindergarten is tough on dad’s. Good Luck.
Thanks Chris…latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center indicates that Fay may slow down considerably. Speaking of School, today is the first day of school for the Letcher County School System…stay safe and watch for the “Big Yellows.” (buses)
Well lets hope that if any good will come out of Fay is that the drought stricken south and east may get some much needed rains.
…….
School note:.. This makes week 3 that my kids have been back to school. I was like you too Chris with my 5 yr. old. But he managed that first day of kindergarten alot better than I did. LOL…
Thanks for the update on Fay,chris! With two sisters living in Florida, I usually watch these things very closely!
As for your daughter’s first day of school, well, good luck with that! She will be fine, and so will you. I promise! You WILL get through this. Just keep saying that to yourself! And if you don’t believe me, just ask TG! He went through this last week. 😉
Have a good day!
From the looks of things I believe we will have a muddy mess camping in Bristol TN later this week. I hope that fay is gone further north by Saturday night so we can go race’n boys!!….and girls.
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