Good very early Sunday morning everyone. I have been a busy bee today with tracking Fay and adding some new features to the blog. I hope to be adding more in the weeks ahead as we get ready for our busy season! ![]()
Let’s get into Tropical Storm Fay. The models trended east with this storms track earlier in the day putting an end to a west trend that had been on going for a few days. We still have a pretty good spray among the hurricane models right now, but you can definatly see they are saying look out Florida!
Notice some of those tracks bring what is left of Fay into Kentucky!! More on that in a moment. The National Hurricane Center is basically in lock step with the model forecast. Here is their 5 day track and cone forecast…
We are in the cone!
The problem with both the models and the NHC tracks is it is one that just does not happen very often. I mean a storm hitting near Tampa is RARE, my friends! How rare… check out this map of all the landfalling hurricanes since 1950…
What does history tell us then? Well… the chances this thing heads into the Panhandle are pretty good and that is what I am looking for to happen with Fay.
Fay had a tough day Saturday and has been looking a little ragged. It will likely begin to become better organized as it heads toward Cuba later today and Monday. This would bring it into the gulf where it will have ample opportunities to develop into a hurricane.
Since I am on board with the panhandle track as of right now… this increase the chances for this storm to impact our weather here in Kentucky. This looks to happen as early as Thursday. How much of an impact remains to be seen so we will wait before we get too specific with things.
Temps around here will continue to be fairly nice with low and mid 80s for Sunday after lows hit the 50s again. Monday and Tuesday will see thermometers begin to rise with a flirt with 90 possible. Then we wait for Fay.
Updates coming later today so check back. Take care.
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keep up the good work CB… I really like your new site and hope you your wife and Wynter (hope i spelled it correctly) are enjoying your new home…
Phelps is so awesome.Was tonight the mens running or is that tomorrow????Well if this sceno plays out and that’s a Big if only, looks like ky would get in on some rain!!!
I hope it dosen’t hit the keys either. its such a beautiful place but you are right at sea level you are driving and there is the ocean right beside you. the 7 mile bridge is awesome you have the gulf on one side and the Atlantic on the other after leaving the 7 mile bridge my husband and i pulled over and just walked in the gulf.We loved it there the sunsets are unreal,but the only way out is that 2 lane bridge and road I know i would be trucking it out of there to be on the safe side!!!!!
Chris I love all the things you are adding thanks for your hard work and dedication.
The hurricane graphic brings back memories Chris because we were in Erin in 1995.
Thanks Chris…they are evacuating the visitors from the Florida Keys. Hurricane Watch in effect for parts of Florida’s west coast.
While I agree, storms hitting Tampa are rare, I believe in 2004 Charley came ashore just south of there and trekked across Florida. It came a few weeks after Frances. I was living in Ocala at the time and and we got some damage from both. Lost 4 huge oak trees and had a foot of water surrounding the house. The power was out for nearly a month. That was the worst part! My Mother and Brother still live there and they are keeping close watch. I hope it makes it up here to KY. We need the rain so bad. My pastures look terrible!
Keep up the good work C.B. I think that https://www.kyweathercenter.com will become the booming place to be this winter!!! I think it’s getting more hits already than most of the other blogs.
thanks chris, the models sure do change fast they may be going back the other way now. I still like the track into the FL panhandle as well and then up the apps. I for one have a go NOGAPS chear going ( the red) that would mean 2-4 inches of grass greening rain. Also boos for the Euro which would leave us high and dry.
Fay is definitely struggling today. Some of the 12Z models hae trended west and Fay appears to moving south of the NHC’s forecast points which leads me to believe that Chris may be right with his panhandle forecast. Most likely would be the mid to eastern panhandle but who knows with this storm.
Visible
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/invest_09/VIS/atl_vis1_loop.gif
LLC is clearly exposed on the western side. This storm really doesn’t even have a western side…not a healthy system right now
Some 12z Models
GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_ten_m_loop.shtml
GFDL
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081712-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
HWRF
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008081712-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
UKMET
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2008081712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
NOGAPS
http://http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2008081712&prod=z85&tau=096
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
don’t worry randy it will explode over the gulf. chris’s panhandle guess looks really good now after a gander at the 12z info.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/03Cienfuegos/psjMAXw01a.gif
NHC track has shifted west
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145243.shtml?5day#contents
I know we need the rain but would this track be to much of a good thing for extreme eastern ky?
Chris, Please give us a guess as to what Saturday holds. It is move in day for upper classmen at EKU and I don’t want to do it in the rain. We have to take the big stuff on a trailer and the refrigerator does not need to get wet. I won’t hold you to it, but please let us know what you think. Thanks 🙂
The extended forecast discussions from the NWS offices in Jackson and Louisville were just bad! How about a little effort here guys! Geez…
I posted this on tg’s blog as well. the nws thinks the east hook is a certainty with fay when the majority of the guidance goes up the apps. not there best work today explaining there forecast reasoning.
Finicky Fay. If we see another shift to the west like we did with the latest model runs, we could be looking at a b***h going in between NOLA and Appalach.
At 7:32, NWS Jackson added a one-paragraph update to their discussion:
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND THE WEBSITE FORECAST…HOWEVER NO CHANGES WILL
BE REQUIRED IN THE ZONES. THE BIG QUESTION IS STILL WHAT TRACK WILL
FAY TAKE. THE LATEST TPC FORECAST AND ECMWF RUN SEEM TO BE BRINGING
FAY TOWARDS THE COAL FIELDS. THERE HAS BEEN SO MUCH RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS…THAT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS STILL
PRETTY LOW…HOWEVER THE LATEST FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE. SOME
OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SOME ERRATIC PATHS IN IT…AND THIS
ONE IS NOW PRETTY SMOOTH. THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF FAY SOUTH
OF CUBA REALLY WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS…SO STAY TUNED.
Your thoughts???
My thoughts are some tender heart is gonna make a fuss about using all caps lol outside of that i dun have any I’m thoughtless
18z hurricane models bring some nice rain here let’s hope that trend continues.
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