Good Saturday afternoon everyone. I promised some updates on Fay through the weekend and I am here to deliver for you. The latest run of models has been going the other direction from where they were this time 24 hours ago.
Here is the latest sat pic of our storm…
Fay has been looking a little ragged Today after slugging it out with the mountains of Hispaniola. But… it has survived nicely and should continue to strengthen in the coming days and become a hurricane.
Here is a look at some of the Hurricane model forecasts…
Yes… that is a nice shift to the east meaning the east coast is now once again sweating bullets. A couple of the move advanced hurricane models say this runs the coast with people all the way up into the northeast on alert. This is a waiting game to see where this storm comes across Cuba. If it does come out to the east of Florida… then the NAM is the fo shizzle! 
It has been the ONLY model saying this with each run.
I will update a little later on today with some new model runs for you.
Before I leave… it’s snowing in parts of Colorado. This is very early for even the Rocky Mountains!! Here is a pic I snatched off the internet for you…
The tropics and snow… the type of weather stuff you can only get on this weather blog!!!
Take care.
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Thanks Chris for the update.
The GFS takes it right over to me, atleast it wouldn’t be a direct hit.
Jake
the majority of all the guidencce is still west of the FL panhandle for a track. only a few of the models are making a east turn. everyone jumps to that conclusion b/c it’s the GFS and EURO. we’re still a good 36 hrs away from knowing for sure.
Jake where are you located?
My bet is whatever Mr Bailey says regardless of what others say If Mr Bailey says east then east it is.
I hope this track means rain for us??
I meant it’s to early to start fay preparations along the east coast, one model goes 50 mi east then the next run goes 100 mi west and so on. for example the yellow line track on the 18z run now goes into eastern ky. so my theme is don’t get carried away with one run shifting east means it’s going further east or vice-versa.
Fay is gradually becoming better organized as a burst of convection has recently occurred near the LLC. Models have nudged back west again as Fay has continued on a due west path.
Models
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
Infrared
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/invest_09/IR/atl_ir1_loop.gif
Chris, thanks for the update. You seem to be the most interested in Fay and what she does. I will be keeping an eye on hwe as my sisters both live on the east coast of Florida. I am hoping for a little more westward track, a it seems to me that that would give US the best chance for some rain, and we REALLY need it!
now for the snow picture….snow in August? the MIDDLE of August, at that. Wow! That is early, even for Colorado, isn’t it? We are talking about the more mountainous regions, I guess? Wonder if that bodes aything for us later. (I am certainly not ready for it now! Too much to do yet and really wanting to get it done!)
Well, guess that is enough for now. Looking forward to the next update, and info on Fay. Y’all have a great rest of your evening!
I like the updates to the site you have put in the last few days Chris 😉
global warming LOL!
Jake maybe you’d be start thinking about visiting your old friends from Kentucky.
I live just south of Jacksonville so it looks like it will it on the other coast. Lastnight on the news they said its center would be close to us. They basically said we would have sever storms, tornadoes, heavy rain, rip currents on the beach.
If it was going to hit us from the East Coast where we are we probably would. My house is only 18 miles away from the beach.