Good Friday everyone! We are heading into the weekend with fairly tranquil weather across Kentucky. All eyes in the weather world will continue to focus on a system that is heading toward the Bahamas and eventually will have a date with a US coastline.

Before we get into the best looking tropical wave in the history of man… let’s talk briefly about our conditions we will be seeing around here.

Our Friday will see temps in the upper 70s to low 80s with a few showers and storms about the region. Some may pack some locally heavy rains.

The weekend looks GREAT! Mild temps will be with us once again with low 80s Saturday for highs and low to mid 80s for Sunday. Lows will be on the cool side with low to mid 50s making sure that our overall temps this weekend will be below normal.. AGAIN! August is destined to be a below normal temp month across our region and that means the overall numbers for the summer will average out to a below normal summer!

I should mention that the NAM is showing the chance for a shower Sat night in a northwesterly flow. Not sold on that, but I will look at it.

Next week’s weather will feature temps warming to normal or above with an increase in humidity. But… our weather will be strongly dependent on what goes on in the tropics.

As of this writing… our little system has looked amazing but the folks at the Hurricane Center have refused to upgrade it. All because their recon planes could not find a westerly wind. Look… they can do whatever they want to do… but if this storm was sitting out farther in the Atlantic and no recon planes went to investigate… the NHC would have had this as a Tropical Storm Thursday morning. Seriously… the way our government agencies do business sometimes is nothing short of amazing to me.

But… I digress. Here is the latest sat shot of our “storm”…



It is going to come VERY close to the Dominican and Hispaniola over the next 24-36 hours and this will likely keep it from rapidly intensifying. There are some big mountains down there and they have ripped storms apart before… but it looks like the soon to be FAY should skirt by just to the north. Here is a look at a few of the hurricane model paths…




They are tightly clustered with a track into the Bahamas by early next week. The NAM agrees and has been rock solid with it track…





It is once we get to this point that we start to see some spread showing up in the models. This is usually the case when you get beyond 4 or 5 days with any system… especially tropical ones.  Some of the models take it across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico… others take it toward the Carolinas. Moral of the story… this is likely to effect a lot of people next week and should keep millions of people living on our coastlines worried.

Believe NO one particular model run over the next few days! That goes for Fay or our weather as the possible track of that storm will play a big role in our weather… directly or indirectly.

Take care.