Good Monday, everyone. The first phase of this winter storm dumped a healthy snowfall across the entire state. Anywhere from 2″-8″ fell across the Commonwealth, creating snow packed roads. Now comes the second part of the storm and it’s the one I’ve been trying to figure out for a while. To some extent… I still am.
This is a rather complicated setup with temps rising to freezing or a little above. This happens as a stout low pressure cranks across the Tennessee Valley and works toward the Appalachian Mountains. Here’s a breakdown of what today may hold:
– Our day starts with a mix of snow, rain and freezing drizzle. Roads are going to continue to be awful, so please stay safe out there.
– Temps SHOULD go above freezing for most areas this afternoon with mainly rain falling. Even with temps above freezing, the ground is frozen, so some ice may still develop. My confidence level starts to get shaky at this point.
– As our low pressure cranks out heavy precipitation late today into this evening, dynamic cooling takes place. That basically drops the temperatures and can allow for snow to take over. I’ve seen situations like this result in some very hefty totals in a narrow corridor.
– If that corridor does indeed setup… where does it form? The European Model from WeatherBELL shows that setting up across central Kentucky…
The European Model has been steadfast in this development, but differs from run to run on where it occurs. The European Model and the NAM nailed our Valentine’s snowstorm, and are very similar with the current part of the storm. Watch how the Hi-Res NAM switches the heavy rain shield to snow on the western side…
You can actually see blue on those first three panels. That indicates a very fine line we’re walking between cold rain and just going over to all snow quicker than it would indicate. You can clearly see how the snow shield eventually takes over on the west side. The NAM is just a bit east of the European Model with that…
The job for me today is to watch the trends and see if that band will indeed set up, and then figuring out where it sets up. If it does… some areas could get smacked down by a band of heavy, wet snow.
The other threat today comes from heavy rain and possible flooding. The NAM shows a lot of precipitation across southern and eastern Kentucky…
Did I mention this is going to be a super-duper active weather day?
Another system dives in here late Tuesday and could bring snow and rain. Here’s how the Hi-Res NAM sees it…
That could keep flurries going into early Wednesday. By the way, that would make it 10 consecutive days with snow flying somewhere across the state.
If you’re looking signs of an early spring, I have some good news and some bad news. The good news comes late in the week into the weekend as temps may hit 60 for many areas. The bad news… it doesn’t last very long. A few days later, the pattern goes back to a big ridge along the west coast with a trough in the east…
Moral of the story… we likely have a few more snowfalls left in the winter tank into early March. 🙁
I will update today’s wild weather around noon. Until then, it’s another dose of your favorite weather tracking toys…
Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington
I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond
US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort
US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I-64 MP 97
Winchester
Mountain Parkway near Slade
I-64 Near Morehead
US23 at 119 Near Jenkins
I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown
I-65 MP 32
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
Owensboro
-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
I-24 MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
Louie B Nunn MP 3
Near Glasgow
Stay safe out there and take care.
First comment! You da man CB
Thanks for keeping us informed Chris. You are the go to weather guy!
You better get some rest…..looks like we could be in for an interesting ride.
Some Mets around here were giving an all rain event starting yesterday and continuing through Tuesday. Thanks, Chris, for your most accurate forecasts. We appreciate all that hard work and accuracy.
WOW, this is the first time in all these years of reading this blog that I have gotten a “site full” message & had to wait for someone to leave before I could get in. How about that Chris Bailey?!! Thanks for the time you put into this, you’re appreciated.
Are any of you experiencing issues with https://www.kyweathercenter.com crashing repeatedly on iPad/iPhone? If I try to look at the site using either my iPad or iPhone 6 Plus, the site crashes about every ten seconds. This all began around the time the storm chaser radar was added, though I don’t know that is the cause of the issue. It doesn’t happen on my PC. All my Apple devices have the latest operating systems/updates.
Yes…I am having similar problems with it crashing, as well.
Same thing exactly with my IPad/IPhone and started at same time as yours. By the way, impressive work as always Chris! Looks like your work is cut out for you today. Appreciate all the time you put into your work to keep us informed.
Same here – annoying
Yes!!! On iPhone and iPad!
Count me in as well. Like Dottie above said I had never had site full message come back later!
Impossible, what part of “it just works” are you all not understanding? /s
My iphone, too. Will ditch the page saying problem and it is reloading. Annoying but not awful…seems to happen when I try to zoom in
Yes, I have noticed that happening in the past few weeks. It seems to have gotten worse lately though.
I hope Fayette County is in the bull’s eye of that band of heavy snow tonight – we sort of got the short shrift on snow total yesterday – no more than 3 inches in southeast Lexington.
CB, not sure how you will peg this until about when it happens. Good luck! I would prefer a nice steady, flood free rain thanks. Wash some salt away 🙂
I still think its possible for some folks to stay below freezing and get walloped ….. a degree or 2 could make a huge difference today
We will get above freezing that’s pretty much a given. The million dollar question is where will the dynamic cooling setup up shop?
Already there. It was 34 in Richmond and 33 in Lexington. Appears we will be several degrees above freezing.
Yeah Louisville sitting at 34. Upper 30’s looks to be a very solid bet for highs. The snow melting will be somewhat of a slow process today till the rain kicks in. Upper 30’s for highs with a solid cloud cover does not equal rapid snow melt. If the sun was to break out totally different story just don’t see that happening.
Bout 3 inches here in Carrie of knott co. Was drizzling already at 6 am when I got up. Temp at 30 gonna go from white to a muddy brown fast today
Mr Bailey you nailed this one. Hoping that snow band sets up right over CKY. However, I noticed it almost felt “warm” on my morning run. Makes me think we might miss out on this one. I’m looking forward to our sneak peek of spring before the winter stuff returns.
Mr Bailey you nailed this one. Hoping that snow band sets up right over CKY. However, I noticed it almost felt “warm” on my morning run. Makes me think we might miss out on this one. I’m looking foreard
The temps are warming up, so might be easier for CB to forecast.
Yeah, that NAM can go take a long walk off a short pier with dumping more snow on Berea. We’re good until the previous usual start of winter in October.
Worst possible snow day if you’re a kid, one you would have been off for anyway.
6 inches of snow in Clay county!!!! It is 32 degrees and a light drizzle!!Stay away rain!!!! The snow we have is GREAT!!! Thanks Chris for all you do!!!! Hope only snow tonight for us!
34 here in knott co at 930. I figure we will push 40 today
Loved the snow yesterday / will really hate the rain today
I thought the warmer air already in place would make it easier for CB, but the models are pulling him back in. If CB does not drink fermented beverages, these conditions might lead him there 😉
31 here in my part of Knott county with 4-5 inches of snow on the ground.
Got 3″ out in the county around Frankfort. Feels downright balmy now. 34 degrees and foggy. I vote for more snow and no rain!!!!! Don’t think I will see that come true but I will continue to hold out hope.
And hey CB!! What’s with the sad face after your more snow into March prediction?!! You are my SnowGod!!! Thought that would bring a smiley from you!!!
Mr Bailey is usually ready for warmer spring weather by early February. That’s why the sad face. Rodger in Dodger!
Already up to 38 here in London.
No love for March cold and snow here. Wouldn’t mind a historic March snow, but not looking forward to something like we have our there today. Rain to snow is okay, but I can’t recall too many times of getting a decent snow and 2 inches of rain the next day. I really wish this weather would get on track. Winter start when it’s supposed to and leave town when it gets time to.
Wsaz giving rain for tonight. They totally missed the storm last night though
Rain showing up on radar for Clay county, but no rain is falling yet. Stay away rain!!!
Rain showing up on radar for Clay county, but no rain is falling yet. Stay away rain!!!
Radar has been showing snow/mix for Harlan Co. since 6:00AM, but we have been getting some very heavy rain instead. A lot of the snow is gone with some good run-off starting to take place.
Currently 37F in east Lexington. Should do a good job of melting what little fell yesterday.
Not seeing heavy snow for a lot of folks, but perhaps a mix and cold rain. The models in these events seem to “forget” warm air usually kicks cold air’s butt- especially with warmer air already in place.
CB’s forecast will be interesting.
34 in Warren co. No snow melt or rain yet. Hopefully the heavy stuff stays away.
This has really been a bum of a winter. One decent snow for some people, but mostly a few ankle biters and this snow to rain event. I’m ready to move onto spring.
What??! That’s absurd
About 5-6 inches of snow fell in Pikeville and 7-8 inches in Northeast Pikeville in the Belfry area. It’s currently 34 degrees in Belfry with a light drizzle. Just a few degrees cooler and we would have got hit real hard. Even though I live in Kentucky all of my local news channels are based out of Charleston and Huntington and Chris as usual was on top of things well before my neighbors to the east.