Good Wednesday, everyone. Our harsh winter weather pattern is about to take a break for the next several days. That break isn’t likely to last very long as another deep trough digs into the eastern part of the country. The same pattern that has been with us for most of January and February looks to continue into early March.

Before I get into a pretty in depth look at what’s driving this pattern, let’s talk about the near term forecast.

Highs today will generally range from 35-40 degrees with mostly cloudy skies and some light snow and flurries. This will mark the 10h straight day with, at least, some flakes flying across Kentucky.

Better weather blows in for Thursday and Friday… Literally. Wind gusts on Friday could hit 40 to 50mph at times. If those winds do materialize, some tree issues could arise courtesy of the soggy ground.

Highs Thursday hit the 50s in the west with upper 40s east. Most areas make a run at 60 from Friday into the weekend. There’s a shower chance in there for Friday and Saturday, with a much better rain chance for Sunday. That’s when the pattern reverts back to where it’s been of late.

If you want to get an idea as to what’s driving this winter pattern, look no further than the PNA (Pacific North American Pattern) and AO (Arctic Oscillation). These two seem to have trumped all other signals.

When the PNA is in a positive phase, you get a big ridge along the west coast and into western Canada. That allows for a downstream trough to develop in the jet stream across the eastern part of the country. When the PNA is in a negative mode, you get just the opposite.

This year, the PNA has had an event greater impact than normal…

PNA

When the PNA was negative in November and December, we had record warm temps across our region. When it went strongly positive, we had very cold and snowy weather in January and through February. That included another history making winter storm in January.

The forecast for the PNA over the next two weeks takes it back into the strongly positive phase…

PNA 2

Given our recent history, one can assume with high confidence winter isn’t over.

I found a similar trend with the Arctic Oscillation. When it’s in the positive phase, we experienced warm to record warm temps. When it went negative, we turned cold and snowy…

AO

The forecast for the AO for the next few weeks is back into the negative phase…

AO 2

You can even see the brief spike over the next few days. Well, how is our weather looking through the weekend? Milder. It then drops off quickly next week and that’s when winter returns.

Now that we are toward the end of winter, I’m letting you in on some of the things I’ve been using to nail these patterns from a few weeks away. I’m also sharing this as a teaching tool for those of you who love weather as much as I do. I’m learning things about it every single day!

By the way, what happened to all the talk about this super El Nino being just like 1997-98? I spent all last summer and fall showing you just how different this Nino was and that it had no equal. I’m pretty sure everyone would agree with that at this point.

Now that we have an idea where the pattern is taking us. Are we seeing the models showing what should be happening? Yes, we are.

Cold air returns early next week as a deep trough dives into the eastern part of the country. This could very well spawn a big eastern US winter storm. The European Model is all over this…

Euro

The GFS is also showing a big storm system…

GFS

Don’t worry about where models are tracking a storm 5-7 days from now… the important thing is they are showing a storm.

The GFS Ensembles from Weather BELL consists of 21 members. Those members are pretty excited about next week…

GFS 2

None of this means there will actually be a big storm system next week, but it certainly would match the teleconnection pattern of the winter.

I will have updates later today so check back. Your snowflake trackers will take you through the day…

Have a great Wednesday and take care.