Good evening, gang. As expected, gusty winds stole the weather show out there today with some areas reaching 50mph. Those winds continue to push some milder air into town and this hangs out through the weekend. Beyond that, it’s back to winter.
A shower is possible later tonight and early Saturday… especially in the south. Rains will really increase for Sunday, but the models differ on where the heaviest drops fall. Here’s the GFS…
The NAM has that a little farther north…
Colder air comes in behind that Sunday night into Monday. That sets the stage for much more of a winter looking setup for next week. The models are still trying to figure out how to handle all the energy diving into the base of a deep trough in the east.
The European Model is showing two systems impacting our region. The first comes Tuesday…
It then shows the next system quickly pushing in for Wednesday with winter weather…
I believe we will see the models trend toward a weaker first system and a stronger second system. That’s what the models were showing up until a few days ago.
Speaking of models… why is the GFS a terrible model? Here’s the morning run of the GFS for this coming Wednesday…
A weak storm off the coast of North Carolina. The afternoon run of the GFS for the exact same time…
I really feel sorry for those who only use the GFS to make a forecast… and there are many who do that.
I will update things later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.
Go away old man winter! Stay up in Canada where you belong.
You take that back, CB!
The GFS is worth every penny WKYT spends to use it! 😉
The NMS (No More Shoveling) Model says that the rest of the winter will feature accumulations of between 0.01″ and 0.50″ that will quickly melt on pavement as it falls from the sky.
Ha Ha—along with The Weather Channel, Jackson (wymt), Accuweather (at times), and many, many more.
You know, the GFS wasn’t this bad a few years ago though:{
I’m not seeing a big impact on anyone other than eastern KY on any models runs as of late for next week. Am I looking at this wrong? Or is there a reasonable chance for a westward trend that I’m just not hearing about? Maybe that’s what CB meant when he said he expected the models to trend stronger with the second low?
Hey GFS!!! Not that far NW……
Is anything going to hit towards Paducah, Ky this winter?