Good Saturday, everyone. We have another very mild day taking shape across the region, and I suggest you get outside and enjoy the good stuff. Heavy rain is on the way later tonight into Sunday. That rain is in response to colder air coming back in from the northwest. That same air will likely set the stage for a big winter storm across the eastern part of the country next week.
Highs today’s will depend on clouds verses sun. Areas that break out into sunshine this afternoon can hit 70 degrees. If you keep the clouds around a little longer, you will have to settle for middle 60s. That’s not a bad situation to be in!
A quick moving system works across the region tonight into Sunday. That’s looking more and more like a decent rain maker. As a matter of fact, a swath of heavy rain looks likely. Check out the totals on the NAM…
The Hi-Res NAM agrees…
Given how fast that rain falls, some local high water issues will be possible early on Sunday.
Colder air comes in behind that exiting rains late Sunday into Monday. This is nothing more than a typical brand of chill, but will be MUCH colder than what we have out there this weekend.
This sets the stage for winter to return. The models are now going toward what I talked about in my last post… little to no first system with a much stronger storm coming from the second one. We now find the European and GFS models with a similar look from late Tuesday through Thursday. Both bring a major winter storm system across our region.
GFS…
That’s one healthy storm system. The GFS Ensembles mean is just a bit farther east with that low…
The European Model looks to be holding the upper energy a little too long, but the overall evolution is similar…
The NAM only goes out through early Tuesday, but it has the look of developing a significant eastern US winter storm…
We still have a few days before we really know how much of an impact this could have on our weather. Snow, rain or a combination of the two are all on the table. This could also be a big wind maker for our region!
Updates will come later today. Make it a great Saturday and take care.
SPRING!!! Bring on Spring….
I love a good storm but just like Virgil… Spring! Where you at?!?
All of those are too far west for both Eastern and Central KY to get a good snow…hopefully, when the energy hits the west coast later this weekend, models will get a better handle than wobbling over 400 miles each direction as has been the case over the past few days:{
If verifying on here, we are in BIG TROUBLE though with all of the rain coming from the consecutive lows over the next 5 days as the ground is currently a bit saturated state wide!!!
I like the GFS ensemble. That would be a smack down for the entire state.
Me too!
A warm Spring morning with the birds chirpping……let’s keep it that way…can we huh, huh?
We should never doubt CB. He said in his prior posts what he thought the models would start to trend toward for next week and now they are. He is truly the best there is out there for the longer range. He’s not afraid to put his thoughts on the table and make a bold prediction before any other met begins to even consider a long range possibility.
Thanks Chris for always keep us informed about the short and long range weather patterns. Looking forward to seeing how next week plays out! Really hoping for an apps runner that smacks central and eastern KY with heavy snow!!!
What John – Austin said. ^^^^^^ you nailed it sir!
I’m enjoying this warm up but could handle another snow or two.
Go Big Blue ~ College Game Day!!!
Thanks Chris. However it plays out, it’s going to be interesting and its going to turn cold again. I always say I would take one good snow each winter and be happy. Anything more than that is just icing on the cake! Must say the warmer air does have me thinking about Spring though, with DST returning two weeks from tomorrow. But if we get another snow I won’t complain. I’ve argued with co workers that our weather runs in cycles, and we have entered into a cycle of typical winter weather, just like the years when we see ankle biters. They think I’m nuts. But they always ask me what’s coming. So I tell them to read this blog.
Thanks again Chris, and all my other weather friends on here. I learn from each of you. Have a GREAT Saturday, everyone, and GO CATS!
I stand corrected. DST starts The 13th, according to my calend.
Louisville is due for a big snow now that Central and Eastern KY got a big one. I have learned to just patiently wait and see with storms . As we all know, what looks to be “in the zone” on models for 12+” can turn to 1″ by the time storm arrives. My children are going to probably play outside a lot today!
It has been an up and down winter.
It will probably be a bust like the last one was.
I say we pick this blog up and move it to Florida. What do you say Chris Bailey? Florida Weather Center?
I prefer four seasons and not just one.
Exactly! Keeps things interesting. Rodger in Dodger!
In my neck of the woods, the Charleston NWS has removed any mention of snow for next week. They also keep highs at 40 and above. Not looking too good for snow lovers. I have a feeling we are done with Winter except for a couple ankle biters.
remember March of, 93 superstorm can happen in a chaotic weather pattern just like this el nino, cold and moisture just have to line up. Kerry Nelson.
All I`m seeing in the Louisville area, for next week is rain. A few snow showers afterward.
People that’s doubt Chis short or long range forecast don’t get it. Always worrying about what other meds are saying. Chris I trust you even know I live far part of Western ky. Go Cats!!!
I am not sure I see it being cold enough for snow, but would love to be pleasantly surprised.
thank you Chris for all of your weather wisdom.
75 degrees in Louisville that breaks a record that was held for about 124 yrs previous record was 74.
I had said early.in.the winter.that this would be a highly variable winter due to El nino, mainly because of its strength. periods of warmth with severe weather, high wind events. extreme cold, snowstorms and possible ice events. thank you Chris for your weather wisdom you are a true weather dude. go cats.
To warm Tuesday and Wenesday for much of a snow impact in central ky. Time to focus on spring
Talk about wild. Last year on this date, Lexington set a record low of -18. Today, Lexington set a record high of 72. That’s a 90 degree swing from one year to the other.