Good Monday, folks. We continue to track a major Ohio Valley winter storm that impacts our weather from late Tuesday through Thursday. This will bring some wild weather to our part of the world. If you want it in the forecast, there’s a good chance you will find it with this storm.
The storm develops across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and rides right on top of Kentucky on Wednesday. It will be strengthening as it does so and that will lead to some wicked weather swings in just a matter of a few hours.
Here’s a rough breakdown to set the stage:
- Heavy rain and thunderstorms increase from southwest to northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday.
- Some areas could pick up 1″-3″ of rain during this time. High water issues are possible.
- Temps may hit 60 in central and eastern Kentucky ahead of the low on Wednesday.
- Much colder air wraps in quickly from the west Wednesday afternoon and evening. That will lead to rain changing to snow.
- Wraparound snows will be likely Wednesday night and Thursday. A few inches of snow look very possible.
- High winds will be a big player through Thursday. 40mph-50mph gusts could cause problems.
You can see all this play out on the models…
The GFS and Canadian Models show some impressive rain totals…
GFS
Canadian
You can actually see a little downsloping in the rainfall numbers across southeastern Kentucky.
As winds become northwesterly Wednesday night and Thursday, we see more of an upslope flow developing. Combine that with a decent wraparound band of snow, and you get the GFS showing some accumulations…
As I said… this is going to bring a lot of different weather to our part of the world, in a short period of time.
Yes, this is an Ohio Valley winter storm, but that doesn’t mean it brings you a snowstorm. For that to happen, you will need that low to head a few hundred miles farther east than is currently forecast. That seems like a very small possibility, at this point. But, this is a HIGH impact storm for our part of the world.
I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Monday and take care.
Chris – thanks
and to think, this is coming up to being close to your -least favorite weather month-
Spring is knocking on the door with stuff like this.
Another wild set up. Should be fun to watch unfold.
Thanks, Chris!
Move 100 miles east my friend.
A wobble east could bring west KY into some good snow but more likely now for everyone to see just backside snow. But as Mr Bailey says, this could be a decent event on backside. Rodger in Dodger
Even if all we get is backside snow, as of now it looks like majority of the state would see 1-3 inches. Granted, that can change but as of right now is that what we are looking at?
Let us hope the low moves 100 miles further east. We will then have a big snow!
Excited for snow but dreading the rain. If I didn’t have a calendar, I would swear it’s the middle of March.
Big drop in temps already from Sun. Let’s face it, the models haven’t been ahead of the storms……
Last night’s post looked alot like last Wednesday (17th) post…the 17th showed possible snow for a week out (now it will be mainly heavy rain..possible backside 1/2 in snow) the low was east..now it’s west.
Week out always looks good. The lows are stronger than the cold highs.
Here’s hoping the H and L can hookup over next weekend and give us one good snow to leave winter on
Still not optimistic about this potential.
Just glanced at ky 7day…next sunday 51 (nice day)..last night post chris saying artic front next weekend. .maybe winter storm????
This is apparently going to be big system, so am surprised the national mets were not up to their usual hyperbole and drama this morning.
more rain than snow seems likely, which is just fine by me. Hopefully, this will under perform for us here like the last event.