Good Tuesday, everyone. Our blowtorch of a temperature pattern rolls on today as temps take another walk on the May side of the thermometer. All of this warmth over the past week and change is abnormal for this time of year, and things look to try to balance out some over the next few weeks. It’s a very busy setup that may feature a few parting shots from winter.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs will range from the low 70s in the northeast to the low 80s in the southwest. Winds will be very gusty ahead of a cold front moving through. That front may touch off a broken line of storms out there this evening, but the best severe threat may hang just to our north.

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Temps behind this front slowly drop over the next few days. Highs on Wednesday should still be in the 60s, but winds are going to absolutely crank. 35mph gusts will be possible.

The main push of chilly air arrives behind another front late Thursday. That may touch off some showers and storms as it moves through…

NAM 2

Much colder air slides in for Friday and into the coming weekend. This happens as a big storm system looks to develop in the south and try to run up the east coast. That has a winter look with it and has a chance to bring some rain and snow our way late this weekend. That chance for rain and snow really depends on the track of the storm system. Wait… did I really just utter those words again? Ugh.

Cold shots of air are going to dive into the country over the next few weeks. That’s actually not out of the ordinary for this time of year. It’s a pattern that should feature some pretty wild temperature swings that can give us some big thunderstorms and snowflakes.

Check out the Lexington raw data from the GFS for the next few weeks…

GFS 2

The long red box highlights the precipitation type and shows just how active the pattern may become. The arrows point toward the huge temperature swings that may set up.

That same run of the GFS shows winter really hanging on across the country…

GFS Snow 2

Now, this is just a snapshot of 2 weeks worth of melting snows. I don’t believe it for a second, but it illustrates the point that winter may not go quietly into the night. Many folks tend to lose perspective of the actual time of year and what can sometimes happen. It can, and often, snows in March in Kentucky. It’s not terribly unusual for flakes to fly into early April.

Here’s hoping that’s not the case this year.

I will drop by for another update later. Make it a great day and take care.