Good Friday everyone and a big welcome to the weekend. Our first weekend of August will feature an increase in showers and thunderstorms as we head toward a significant pattern change. This change will lead us into a MUCH more comfy brand of air over the next few weeks. The only drawback will be the periodic showers and storms that may cause some issues.
A weak boundary will be draped across the region over the next few days. A couple of waves of low pressure will be riding eastward through the area and these will ignite rounds of thunderstorms. With a juicy airmass in place… we will need to be watching for local high water issues.
The scattered storms will fire up later today as our temps warm to near 90 for many areas. The storm action should become much more widespread into Saturday when some strong storms will be possible.
On and off storms will be with us into the first half of next week as our overall pattern across North America undergoes a major change. This will allow for a big dip in the jet across the eastern part of the country squashing the heat ridge well back to our southwest. You will start to really feel the impact of this by the middle of the week and the European Model has a good grasp on all this…
That is going to be some serious relief for millions of Americans suffering through a scorching hot summer. The overall trend of the heat out west and a trough in the east should be rather common for the rest of August. That does not mean we won’t have a few more 90 degree highs during this time… but those look rather tame when compared to where we have been.
Anytime you get such a dramatic swing and an orientation of the jet stream like the one that appears to be setting up… you usually get a storm zone somewhere along the way.
We shall see exactly where this sets up… but the GFS 2 week rain forecast continues to put our region in the line of fire…
Our summer forecast called for August to be the coolest summer month in relation to normal. I had June as a hot month with July trending closer to normal. The later obviously was way off as the heat held on much longer than I thought it would. Either way… let’s see if we can salvage August. 
Speaking of temps… and storms. You can track the weather of today right here…
Current Temps
As always, I will have updates as needed today. Have a great Friday and take care.
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All weather media have been watching Emily in the Caribbean for days. Yesterday you even posted: “If you have a vacation scheduled to the southeastern part of the country… Tropical Storm Emily may have something to say about it. The storm has been trending farther west and may become more of a threat to Florida this weekend. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center…”
24 hours later, the storm doesn’t even exist. How did that get missed?
I don’t understand why people continue to come on here and try and call out the guy who in his spare time (he does have a “real” job on TV) gives us GREAT weather analysis. Think about weather, clouds develop drop rain, snow etc. and they are telling us when that may or may not happen. It’s an impossible job, thats why none are 100% accurate it’s an intelligent guess, some better than others, and I put mine with Chris the MAN Bailey. Keep up the good work Chris, plenty of us live and die by your site. I for one check it multiple times a day.
Looks like Emily got ripped apart over Hispanola.
Per the discussion from the NHC:
THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL…WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS
FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA.
Perhaps you should read my post a little more carefully. I said “all weather media”. Aren’t you just a little bit curious about what happened to the potential hurricane? Maybe I’m just a free thinker and don’t accept things just because someone says they are so.
You quoted Chris’s post from yesterday. Also you are one of a couple who come on here and try to call out Chris’s forecast, I said “people”. And yes I would like to know what happened to the tropical storm (potential hurricane) but I don’t come on a site and quote the guy who wrote the piece and then ask how did this get missed. Maybe the mountainous terrain of Haiti and the Dominican Republic had something to do with it.(that would be a free thinker comment)
Emerson Biggins your call as to what happened to Emily is exactly what I heard/saw in explanation of her potential demise via either the internet or the Weather Channel before she actually got to Haiti. Whle they talked of the potential for her to get stronger again after leaving Haiti, they talked about the weaking of the storm too.
another HEAT ADVISORY! imagine that…Im so ready for a nice cool down and some slow steady rain!
For one thing, it wasn’t MISSED. He said that the storm MAY have something to say, and MAY threaten Florida.
You remind me of my mother. Anytime I tell her that I may do something, she goes around telling people that I’m doing it. No mom, that’s not what I said. I said I may. That also means that I may not.
Man do I ever agree….the use of the word MAY gives me the impression of an opinion or possibility but not a promise. I don’t get why they get so bent out of shape over someone saying something is possible and it not turning out to be fact…..I just don’t…
WHITNEY FLAT OUT
WVIRGINA DERBY 2 hoss intrinitii with borail in irons.
race 11 bet the 11 all u ant at sraratoga all this for tomm card.
I’m not sure what part of this you don’t understand? Go be a troll somewhere else.
I’m not sure you understand, Your the one who quoted the guy who runs this website, and said how was this missed. Like some of the other educated people on here pointed out, he said “May”, so it didn’t happen. Go to the Weather Channel website, I’m sure you would fit in much better there, they seem to be wrong more and that would give you a better opportunity to call out their weathermen. Troll? Well I guess I know I don’t have to respond to your ridiculous comments anymore. Thank You
18″ of rain in 24 hrs!!! In okinawa from a typhoon. WOW
Well, you’ve clearly forgotten how it gets around here in the winter! LOL
Are my words to big? Yes I quoted him. It was so he would understand the question better. What I didnt say was: “Hey Emerson please insert your hillbilly perception in this comment”.
Like that spot on summer forecast?