Good Sunday everyone. Our weekend is about to wrap up and you are probably thinking the same thing I’m thinking… where did it go? It’s been a tame few days of weather as we get set for some big time weather changes for the upcoming week. Old man winter begins his comeback this week and it looks like he wants to make up for lost time.
Our short term weather features a mix of sun and clouds today as a cold front stalls out just to our south in the Tennessee Valley. We will see a nice temp gradient setting up from north to south today. Highs in the low 40s to the north will be common with the south closer to 50.
Moisture will increase along and nother of the boundary later tonight into early Monday. This means some light rain will be possible… especially across the southern half of the region. Temps early Monday may be close to freezing in some areas and we will have to keep an eye on that.
It’s at this point we turn our wintry eyes toward the changes ahead for the middle and end of next week. Low pressure works out of Texas into our region from Tuesday into Wednesday. This low will bring locally heavy rain in here from Tuesday night into Wednesday. The low goes by to our north and northeast by Wednesday night as an arctic front approaches from the northwest. This front should plow in here on Thursday as our temps plummet.
One of the latest trends in the models is to bring a wave of low pressure northward along this front from Thursday night into Friday. That could make for some interesting times for snow lovers if this low is real. Here’s how the Canadian Model see it…
That model has been getting more robust with that setup over the past few days. The GFS Ensembles are also picking up on the wave train…
The latest run of the GFS is even picking up on this as the model FINALLY begins to see the cold and threat for snow. Better late than never. 🙂
The pattern may give us another threat for snow by this time next weekend as a clipper dives in from the northwest. This is all part of a very wintry pattern taking shape for much of the country for the rest of January into early February.
I will have another update later today. Have a fantastic Sunday and take care.
Chris
Thanks!
I thought you said we had to register before we could comment (unless I overlooked something.
: D
Really like the new site and its updates. Kentucky Weather Center has been my home page for over two years now. I am in the lawn & landscape business and it is a nice way to start and end each day and helps me plan out my work with little surprises. Thanks for all you do.
Now can you make it snow….Just joking….It does look as though things are looking better than they did a month ago for us snow lovers. We just might get a little snow before the winter blows by and the spring warm up begins. Hoping for a cold and snow end to the winter, but I am not going to hold my breath. THINK SNOW!!!
winter’s first kiss? – kinda getting my snow butterflies fluttering and pulse quickening.
NAO looks to give support. 10-day snowfall outlook going up. If snow was a security option on the New York stock exchange, I think you might make some money on this one.
Decent year for my Bengals, way out did my expectations! Lets hope we get back next year.
I guess the idea of the low in texas isnt waiting to catch the cold for snow instead of rain for the first part? Oh well, lets just hope it gets cold and it feels like winter. I’m sure we will get a little snow but I wish we could get 4+
HAve a Blessed sunday all!!
Where exactly will we need to watch tomorrow morning? I really hope if it gets cold, that it does snow and that the Bowling Green area is not completely missed with these upcoming systems? Will they impact the whole state, or just the Lex/EKY area?
Chris, you rock. Thanks for your always awesome outlook on the upcoming weather, lets hope its snow snow snow!! 🙂
Thanks for the update, Chris. How strange it was yesterday morning to get up to a temp of 54 degrees, and then get up to 24 this morning. I went to work in just a sweatshirt yesterday morning. Guess I will be wearing a coat to church this morning.
Again, love the new look! Love the way the maps are looking, too. Hopefully we will see some actual winter and snow before the week is done! Keeping a good thought. Have a great Sunday all, and Bengals fan, I feel the same way you do. Gotta keep the faith! 🙂
My thoughts exactly, coffeelady….what coat am I wearing to church this morning? 🙂 Keeping the faith for snow here in ETown!
From the NWS Louisville:
Strange things start to happen in the last couple days of the
forecast period. While the general model consensus is for high
pressure to build in from the west and give us dry weather, the 00Z
GFS has suddenly decided to spin up weak low pressure over the Gulf
of Mexico Thursday/Thursday night and bring it north into the
Appalachians Friday. *IF* the GFS solution were to come true, there
would be a band of 2-4 inches of snow centered along the Ohio River
during the day on Friday (the 13th!). **However**, the previous
four runs of the operational GFS were all dry for Friday. The last
four runs, including the 00Z run coming in now, of the ECMWF have
all been dry. The GFS Ensemble mean is dry. The GEM Ensemble mean
is dry. In the GEFS, several of the individual members are dry.
So, would rather not jump onto this one run from the operational
GFS. If it starts to get some support from other models, or more of
the GEFS ensemble members start to support this new solution, then
that`s a different story and future forecasts can be adjusted
accordingly.
**giggles** 🙂
‘strange things’ indeed….
thanks Chris 😉
From NWS Forecast Discusson in Jackson: 🙁
AT THIS TIME IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MAJORITY OF ANY PCPN WILL EXIT THE
REGION BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR CAN INFILTRATE TO CHANGE IT TO SNOW.
FEEL THAT THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES LATE THU WITH THE EXIT BUT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AS AN
ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
That sounds familiar and I agree with it.
Familiar and agreeable yes, but how often do the boys in Jackson get it right until the day of?
Hoping for snow 🙂
This was included in NWS Paducah’s forecast discussion this morning:
00Z GFS PICKS UP ANOTHER SRN BRANCH LOW
AND SPREADS WINTER WEATHER OVER THE AREA FRI. THIS HAS NO SUPPORT
THAT I COULD FIND FROM OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS…SO WILL IGNORE
THIS SOLUTION…AND NOT GET THE SNOW BUNNIES EXITED JUST YET.
At least they’re talking about it I guess.
thought i would add my 2 cents worth for what it is worth this morning at 11:15amon this beautiful sunday morning where the sun is shining brightly with a temp of 45 degrees, could be alot worse for the beginniing if jan. as for the late week adventure, if u will, i, my self do see a another major dip in the jet stream beginning thursday that may last through the long holiday weekend ( martin luther king b-day ), as for the snow, unless we get low pressure to develop at the tail end or along the front then all i see happening is a lot of wasted cold to go along with run of the mill snow showers and snow squalls. i am in know way an met. nor do i claim to be but i am sensing a pattern here and that is we see a cold snap about 1 time a week of about 3 to 4 days some longer, others shorter then it warms back up to seasonable levels or better.
has any one noticed that the days are getting longer especially in the evening time.
also the longer we go without putting snow on the ground and keeping it on the ground it is going to be even harder to get any kind of cold to come in with staying power.
i am in know way trying to show chris up but i am only using common sense. as always time will tell. my gut tells me we are going to have a very late spring this year, i may be wrong, i have been wrong before. thanks and god bless.
Yes. Before I know it I will be able to play golf until 9:00pm. 😉
Why is cb the only one mentioning snow. Henry at Accuweather has London/Corbin staying warm with sunshine. Wlex and wkyt neither mentions snow for here. Don’t they run the same models??? Guess time will tell on who’s wrong this time.
well stick with my thoughts I 64 north best chance at mix and snow, and the cold last short term warm up then another shot with cold and chance of snow possible.
now to the models, if as Chris says this low going develop move up the satalled front, if this happens everybody would see snow with north best chance. but if this said low BLOWS up then LOOKOUT, but we still got rest of todays runsd and tomms to see if this going come true. if models GFS,CANDIAN and EURO will tell tell show the low tomm nite then GAME ON.
ill say again 1 -64 north best chance of any ice or snow, but if we get a POWERHOUSR stronger low which would get dynamic then more cold air pullsd in for entire state.
Would be nice, but most of the moisture this coming week will probably be long gone before enough cold air settles to make much snow. Our infamous 33/32 rule in full effect.
All this talk of a “major reversal” is getting me pumped, and it’s not just Chris saying this. There’s a great summary at WxRisk.com this morning of the potential for a turnaround.
Let’s hope we see this secondary low later this week picks up steam and give us a nice snow followed by cold and 2-3 more good solid snow chances through the end of the month. I’d take that in a heartbeat after this depressing start to winter!
So let me get this right.. the GFS picked up on a snow threat later this week, and the other models are showing dry weather (according to the NWS offices)?
One thing I am seeing though is that both the 06Z and 12Z runs today are looking very similar, and neither looks like the 00Z run that these forecast discussions referred to.
I just wanted to be the first person on this blog that has used the reply.(Since the new format)
But then again I might of got ahead of myself. Well at least I know the reply mode works.
Looking at the12z gfs at a glimpse,it appears that the model loves the chances of a repeat performance. More hit and miss snow showers & squalls for central & eastern Ky.
AKA: Swiss cheese snow coverage. North Madison and southern Fayette were hole parts the last time. Wonder if we will be the cheese parts if squalls again.
But I don’t want the 6z and 12z model runs to not match up with 0z model run of the GFS. I want that storm to be there and hit us good!! Please come back on the evening runs tonight!!!!
I hope we get some snow.Thanks for the new site.
I don’t trust the one run of the GFS six days out. It never pans out unless more than one of the models are on the table. We will have to wait and see. Let us hope for the Tue/Wed low to slow down a bit and converge with the cold air that is coming.
THINK SNOW….
I don’t trust the one run of the GFS six days out. It never pans out unless more than one of the models are on the table. We will have to wait and see. Let us hope for the Tue/Wed low to slow down a bit and converge with the cold air that is coming. Think Snow!!
The irony being the models are not implying big snow, but smaller events. Not just KY though, so not the usual bog snow curse.
Meant “big”. CB why no edit function?
Well, all I can say is, I`m ready for whatever comes our way. Because, you can`t control the weather, right? Well, I`ll catch you all later. Hope everyone has a very good Sunday. Take care. And, thank you very much, CB, for keeping us up to date on the weather situation. You Rock!
this snow would be thursday night. Tv mets don’t seem excited at all.
Im loving the new blog!! It looks fantastic!! Cant wait to see some snow later this week!!