Good Sunday afternoon, friends. We’re seeing the models all boarding the arctic express for the end of the week into the weekend. That’s always good to see as it leads to a higher confidence forecast. This will be the coldest air, so far, and we also have a few rounds of snow to contend with.
Let’s get a quick review of the models and we start with the overall view from the European Model for Thursday and Friday…
That’s a heck of a deep trough digging into the Ohio Valley and engulfing much of the eastern half of the country. Check out that closed low across the lakes and OV as it matches what I’ve been talking about happening for the past several days. Here’s a closer up view of the same model…
That’s snow along and behind the arctic front sweeping in Wednesday night into early Thursday with extensive wraparound snows on a northwesterly wind. You can also see my weekend clipper digging into the Ozarks by Saturday morning as it takes a Tennessee Valley track.
I haven’t used the JMA yet this winter, so let’s use it to validate the wraparound snows later Thursday into early Friday…
I have a blast poking fun at the GFS and those who use it exclusively… as you guys are fully aware of . 🙂 It had been the ONLY model not showing this big arctic shot for later next week and the forecasters who worship it blindly followed it. Wonder what they’re thinking today? Here’s the latest GFS…
While still not cold enough… that looks a lot like what all the other models have been saying for days now. 😉
I will update later if I have anything else I want to show. If not, a full update will come your way later tonight. Have a great rest of your Sunday and take care.
I’m ready for some snow an intense snow squalls!!
Second that!
So Chris, Mitch, MJ or whoever wants to throw in their opinion, what do you think the highs will be for Friday? Come on guys, give us a number. 🙂
GFS, which is being called the “warm” model today, is going with 20-ish for a low, and near 30 for a high on Friday. Even if you subtract a few degrees to match up with the other models you’re into the mid-20s for a high Friday just based on today’s models. So, it could be a snow-showery day if there is any moisture left behind… just based upon today’s models. Personally, I think the modeling temp. profiles will change over the next couple of days and nailing down a number for Friday would be risky today.
Thanks! I figured it would be hard to nail temps from this part out because when there’s a change, most mets can’t nail it. I was kind of wondering what the models were showing. If one forecast, 22 and another 28 for the high, it’s freezing either way, so it don’t make that much of a difference. But I guess if it’s 30 as opposed to 34, the battle between the 32 mark, it makes a difference.
West tx in for another heavy snow event up to 10 inches! In some spots I highly think its our turn now LOL!
So much for the big one I guess. Just squalls
Would that not be mainly rain?
yes, the ECMWF temperatures are to warm the majority of precipitation behind the front Thursday is cold rain showers with temps steady in the upper 30’s. flurries thursday evening though.
It doesn’t rain behind arctic fronts. 😉
haha …burn!!!
It does in Kentucky LOL jk
Is this really “Arctic”? None of the model data or trends in the model data show 850 temps dropping colder than -12 to -16 across our region for the end of next week and into the weekend. If we were talking -20 or colder at 850, then I’d consider that “Arctic.” Yes, there are possibilities that it could be colder, but until certain pieces of the puzzle come into line, this airmass looks no colder than what we saw last week.
STINGER!!! Nice Chris, Duh……. apparently people have forgotten that all of us come to this site to see what CHRIS BAILEY says!!!
You guys stop picking on Mitch. I find his knowledge about the weather vast. And I do not think his prediction about Thursday to far out of the mainstream.
Mitch does a great job. Always enjoy his input along with what Chris, WXman, Mj, as well as others have to say. All of these men are dedicated. Obviously, they give us there input for free and they give it often. Appreciate it guys!
So I guess Chris you are thinking it is going to snow Thursday during the day? Usually with these systems if it doesn’t snow when everyone initially says, they always say it’s what they were predicting just a day or two late. So the artic air is going to be here by thursday morning?
While I’m not looking for a hard number…I am curious as to how cold it will get on Thursday-Friday. I don’t think a couple of days with highs in the 20s qualifies as an “arctic blast.”
I agree. I’ve already seen temps in the low teens at my house, and wind chills in the single digits, in the past 4 weeks. There is nothing in the current modeling that indicates our coldest air of the season is headed this way.
In addition I’d like to point out that as of the middle of last week, GFS was already showing a huge trough and a cold snap coming in around the 13th. So honestly I’m still scratching my head trying to figure out where the GFS-bashing session is coming from. ??
Looks like nothing to see here. Precip is gone before cold arrives unfortunately.
nothing changed here just average weather as far as temps go for couple days with some upslope possible likre we had last monday. as LESLIE NELSON said move along here nothing to seee!!LOL
I thought that was what the storm trooper said to Luke Skywalker in “Star Wars”? lol.
I love Chris but please do not buy any stock in the JMA model. The GFS is an Einstien compare to that model.(At least in N.America during the winter).
To all you weather-wise folks: where do I find the keys to understanding the above models? I don’t know whether I’m looking at temperatures, precipitation, or something else. I get that blue is sometimes snow, and rain is green, on precipitation maps, but there is obviously a whole lot more going on. I’d like to know what kind of map I’m looking at, and the color keys.
Lynn on those precip maps tue blue just means heavier precip, not necessarily rain or snow. The blue lines do however indicate that the cold air would be in place
When will you ROOKIE self ordained weather nerds wake up! Chris b. is the weather man on hear, I find your second guessing of our pro very funny.
Mid-January here in 1994, we saw air temps. in the negative 30s! Now THAT is an arctic outbreak. Imagine weather 58 degrees colder than what we’re going to see this Friday.. wow. That’s hard core winter weather. As Rolo would say, “oldschool”.
That would be amazing. Just flat out amazing
It was amazing. I had a very early morning appointment at the airport on the coldest night of that outbreak, and it is still the only time I’ve ever been outside where it actually hurt to breathe.
Thanks, CB, for the update. Appreciate it!
Chris I know it’s to early to be real sure, but I think you’re awesome at predicting so……when could snow start falling-Wednesday? Or Thursday? And just in general…….totals for the end of next week……2 inches…….1 foot……????? By the way this new site is great!!!!
New forecast discussion sounds bad. hopefully they’re wrong.
TEBOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Conngrats to Denver, they deserve the win…
I’m so proud of my Steelers for hanging in there all year with a ton of injuries… We’ll stap ’em back up next fall for another run…
Go Steelers…
And I can’t wait for spring…! Winter in KY just plain stinks
I’m glad the bengals didn’t lose that way lol. Pitt made a nice comeback. Tebow was amazing tho
CB is a great weather dude, but I am not seeing anything beyond a bunch of cold air AFTER most of the moisture leaves. Wrap around action is possible, but that seems a best case- few inch scenario for some folks.
Seems 80 to 90 percent of the mositure will be gone and then maybe light snow / squalls for some. Wild though how through the years huge chunks of states all around us of have gotten pounded. This winter seems wimpy for more than KY, but you never know 🙂 ….. The models sure don’t 😉
I am new to this so this is probably going to be a stupid question but here goes. You’re saying that there won’t be any moisture but why is the entire state all green? Isn’t the green wet stuff falling from the sky???? We know it’s going to start as rain then the temps drop and it still looks like precip through Friday. If it’s below freezing that’s snow. What am I missing?
Most of the wet stuff will probably be out of the area, by the time the cold air settles in.
you guys in eastern KY are lucky out here in western KY we haven’t had one snowfall that stuck to the ground 🙁
Know this isn’t weather related but its awesome. Tim Tebow’s favorite bible verse is John 3:16. He threw for 316 yards today, averaging 31.6 yards per completion.
I like this 100% !!
Its been a pretty nice day down here in the south…but I am ready for winter to come & go…….we can’t get spring until we get through with winter…so hurry winter and come to Ky. please! 🙂
bring on the snow :p
Ok CB, keep bashing the GFS…but here’s one you’re not confessing, the Euro is about as consistent as mud. I’ve been following these models for several weeks now. They’re all bad long term, but I’ve actually found the GFS outclassing the GEM and Euro within 5 days ETA. At least 2 weeks in a row of GEM and Euro sniffing out winter and whatever else, the GFS suggested rain and it happened.
The Euro may have sniffed out the cold first, but can’t make heads or tails what to do with the precip.
Now, I expect the models, all of the models to waffle…maybe they’ll even put that low back on the map that’s suppose to give us our snowstorm end of the week.
That’s why I don’t speculate on anything past 5 days…too much wiggle room for everything to change.
Anyone know when the next model runs come out? Gotta feeling we’re gonna gain hope!!!
I sure hope you’re right!!
love the new site
everyone check out this nice blog entry. this is from WeatherNation TV at http://www.facebook.com/weathernation they talk about the winter that never was:
http://weathernationheadlines.blogspot.com/2012/01/january-8-winter-still-missing-in.html it is a good read
Nice site remodel! I am hoping for some snow, but with school starting and me driving so much I am conflicted on if I really want it to snow. Lexington traffice downtown and around campus is bad enough. Lol. I probably still want snow though… Not that conflicted I guess.