Good Friday afternoon everyone. I wanted to drop by for an update on the staring contest between the American Models and the foreign models. All of them decided to blink some today as they are, at least, slightly different from their earlier solutions.
The GFS made the biggest correction as it goes back to the monster cutoff low idea it had up until a few days ago…
This particular run of the GFS means heavy rains move in late Saturday into early Sunday with a slow transition to snow from southwest to northeast into Monday. This also implies a much greater shot at putting snow on the ground…
Let’s not go crazy about that map since this is ONLY one run of one model and it’s probably still having issues and will change over the next few runs.
It is MUCH more believable than some of the runs of late… but still has some work to do.
The NAM is getting closer to the above scenario, but remains more progressive. It still shows snow across the region…
Same thing as with the GFS run…. it has more work to do, so take these snow maps with a grain of salt.
The European and Canadian models are still slower and farther south with the closed upper low. They are a little farther to the north and would mean heavy rain changing to snow at some point with accumulations possible.
Again…I think all the models have a few more blinks left to go before they see clearly and through the same eyes.
I will have updates as needed and through out quick thoughts via twitter. Enjoy the rest of your Friday and take care.
The colors..on the maps..they are..BEAUTIFUL. Make our dreams come true CB its been a whole 9 months since I have seen snow!
Thanks for the update Chris!!! So exciting to think about the first snowfall of the season.
AAAH Chris…..couldn’t I just keep these runs??? 🙂
I really do like them alot…..please????
LOL(just kidding)
looks like dayton might be in line for some solid snow totals! i would put i70 as the favored area for the best snows right now.
Assuming this goes awry and ends up being all rain, how much are we talking about? Lexington is getting mighty close to the wettest year ever! What kind of snowfall can be expected after an extremely rainy spring/summer/fall? As I recall, even though we had snow on the ground many days last winter, the liquid totals were lower than normal.
I’m a weather novice, but a snow-lover and Chris Bailey fan! My question may be laughable to you knowledgeable folks, but why do the forecasts from NOAA and Accuweather, and others, say nothing about snow right now? Is it typical for them to hold off/be wrong/be conservative? Just curious. I don’t know anything about the models (trying to learn), but surely all forecasters use them, yet I can’t find any mention of snow for my zip code except CB. And he was definitely correct last year, so I’m a believer.
Because Chris Bailey is God! Only he knows whats really going to happen!
The main reason is that Chris mentions snow when the models say “hey its possible” and also when he feels its slightly possible.. Dont get me wrong i LOVE Chris and read every thing he writes, but this is just an answer to your question. When there’s a better chance the other major providers will use the word snow, but to save being wrong(what people perceive as wrong) they keep the word out until its more of a sure thing. Chris will nearly 100% of the time be the 1st to mention snow when it does happen days later, for that he is the man.. This blog is in my opinion for entertainment as well as usefull info, but the four letter word does get hyped some, but hey we are all snow lovers here(99.9% anyway)!
Cannot answer anything but wanted to say that at times I wonder the same about how Chris can be right, and a few days ahead of most forecasts, yet they seem to only get it at the last minute or a little late in many instances. You would think that the forecasters would see these models as well. Almost seems like their forecasts change as the model/s they use change as where Chris seems to make more inferences.
It’s not a forecast if you wait 6 hours before it starts snowing, to say, hey it’s going to snow. Chris will always stay with he’s gut!
you will also notice with the nws that beyond day 5 they try very hard to stay with climatic norms, if they feel its going to be a colder than normal pattern in the winter for instance they may forecast highs in the mid and low 30s…(normal high 39) even though models may show temps in the 10s and 20s.
Just stay away from accu-weather forecasts during the winter months.
Does anyone know the best link to view the lastest Canadian, European & JMA runs?
Thank you for the replies! It makes sense that actual forecasts (vs discussions), stay as noncommittal as possible. Glad to know to ignore Accuweather- thanks lol. I enjoy the comments on this blog as much as Chris’s analysis.
Why should we avoid Accuweather? Just because they are ‘inaccurate’? Haha