Good Thursday to one and all. Our week is slowly winding down and we’re tracking a couple of systems that can bring some wintry weather to parts of the bluegrass state. The first system arrives later this evening with a glancing shot of light snow and the other may bring more of a mixed bag threat late Friday into Saturday.
Let’s take them one at a time. The first system arrives in the form of a weak cold front this evening. Winds are going to gust our ahead of this bad boy and temps will spike into the 40s before it sweeps in. A band of light snow and flurries will be along and just behind the front and some of this may start out in the form of a rain shower. Here’s the GFS showing the light snow action this evening and overnight…
The best chance for seeing a light accumulation will be in the north and east overnight as temps drop into the upper teens and low 20s. We will get a better idea on how this plays out after seeing the late day radar. You can watch it all day long by clicking on the radar tab up top.
That brings us to the next system that sweeps in late Friday into Saturday. The setup with this is rather complicated as a lot of low level, cold air will be locked in just to our north. The GFS has been insistent on the potential for a HUGE temperature gradient setting up from north to south during this time. Check out what I’m talking about…
The model keep showing that cold air hanging tough as precipitation moves in. The end result is the POTENTIAL for light ice or a mix for some areas…
Here’s the Freezing Rain Accumulation Forecast from that same run…
Many of the other forecast models have been showing a warmer solution with the mix line being farther north. Some of them are looking a little colder as we get closer. It will be interesting to see exactly how this plays out as none of the models do very well in handling shallow cold air masses. I can’t endorse what the GFS is showing, but I can’t say it’s wrong either.
That system pulls away to give us a decent Sunday as milder air moves in. It won’t last very long. Check out the GFS Ensembles by Monday Evening…
I will have more updates later today, so be sure to check back. Have a great Thursday and take care.
Thanks Chris you can keep the Ice lol.
I agree!
Can bring n the cold though, still not seeing it depicted in the short/long range modeling, just saying, where is the disconnect at?
Why is nobody but Chris mentioning tonight’s chance at snow? I believe Chris of course, but not one other person I watch or read has mentioned a chance at snow tonight.
Wondering the same thing….no one else mentioned as much as flurries this morning!
I agree completely. NWS in Jackson doesn’t even mention snow flurries. I hope that Chris does an update this morning to help us out.
I’m with you on the warm up not happening. I think most meteorologists aren’t looking and are living in hope. I’ll defend lmk all day, but you consistently beat em Chris, and that says something!
Why must my area always miss everything?!?! Local weatherman says 50’s and 60’s highs for the next 7 days! Is he right?!?!? haha
Well let’s be honest… Winter 2011/2012 so far has seen the absolute WORST performance from ALL of the weather models that we’ve seen in a LONG time. I mean, it’s pathetic. And if that’s what you’ve got to go on, then the end product (the forecast) is also going to be below standard. GIGO, remember?
Having said that, I still haven’t seen a single published forecast that even mentioned the possibility of mixed precip. here tomorrow night. Heck, WeatherBug is showing Partly Cloudy skies and 42 for Frankfort tomorrow. Apparently they are just throwing darts. NO television mets. that I have watched this week have mentioned the possibility except my friend Brian Goode. And the NWS is dropping temps. with each forecast package to try and gradually keep up.
Was I wrong or did Knoxville weather have us in 1-2 inches tonight?
must have been an old video forecast. Sorry
Anyone know if the clipper system is even in the cards tonight….I’d LOVE a 3 day weekend lol!
Chris has been showing it for days….but not a single TV forecast gave anything this morning…..not that I take much they say for the truth anyway….but just odd no one mentioned it!
NWS in jackson was showing it for the area that I live in and they backed off of it last night. Must be thinking it will not make it that far south or something. I hope they are wrong. 🙂
Ice is a 4 letter word.
It is in my book also…..
OK, so SREF/GFS/NAM are all pretty much coming into agreement now that this ice storm is going to happen.. but it’s going to be to our north. Indy to Cincy and southern Ohio.. basically a swath of ice oriented west-east and laying just to our north. Most KY counties should stay on the cold plain rain side of the system…but it’s going to be close. The temp. gradient that’s going to set up is ridiculous. Ice near Cincy, with 50s downstate closer to TN. Wow.
Is it going to be a Ice storm or just some icing ?
no worries here mr.rose, gonna be in the 50’s for the next 7 days…lol..
drinking the koolaid again eh 😉
Hi WXman. I am located 30 miles south of Indy. How much ice do you think could accumulate? Mets in Indy say only a thin coating of ice possible, and don’t act like it will be a big deal at all. Could there be enough ice for some power outages?
It would seem that the total icing amount will be low. A tenth of an inch perhaps. So this storm isn’t going to totally destroy infrastructure. But, it WILL create a nightmare for travel up there. If I was planning on traveling north out of Cincinnati Friday night, I wouldn’t.
Like MJ said, there are a couple of shots at severe weather coming up for KY soon.
I’d like to say it again.. we just had the most prolific tornado outbreak in KY history (for the month of January) and it all unfolded with NO severe weather watch boxes in place. People NEED to be using NOAA weather radios and you need to be keeping an eye on things. SPC is apparently not going to be very vigilant again this year.
Yeah, the threat of ice seems to be concentrated across the far north. Of more concern is the threat for the possibility of strong storms across the south Friday night/Saturday morning. Severe weather threat is increasing for sure for Sunday night as the models are stronger with the jet dynamics and instability. Something to watch for sure.
After looking at the weather channel, accuweather and NOAA, not to mention WYMT’s forecast, it seems that any snow scheduled for tonight is NOT going to happen. This makes me sad.
Thanks, Chris. guess we will all play the waiting game on the second one. Everyone stay tuned, and have a great Thursday!
Well, I guess the NWS says the arctic air will stay bottled up in Canada, with mild temps in the 50’s for the next week and beyond.
Wxman– I have also noticed that the NWS’s temp forecast has been getting colder by the day by a couple of degrees. I remember last week they were touting mid sixties and even a day in the 70’s.
That sounded ridiculous even to me, a weather newbie. But hey… waht ya gonna do? This year has a crazy insane winter. Only Chris seems to be getting the majority of it right these days. Actually its kind of fun to see everything Mets forecast get blown out of the water, lets us know there are no weather Gods. Only one God, who can’t be boxed. 🙂
Yeah see the problem with the NWS is that they have to try and blend their forecast in with the surrounding offices. So, let’s just make an example here.. even if MJ looks over the model data and it’s clear as a bell that we won’t get out of the 40s on Saturday… he still can’t put that in his forecast if all the surrounding offices are going with 60s. It would cause a break in consistency that messes with everything else. So.. in my opinion it creates poor forecasting, because the guy/girl who knows what they are doing ends up getting sort of “over-ruled” by the neighboring office that is using a junk forecast. They can’t just tell it like they see it, in other words. They have to instead make everything pretty and consistent. I think it’s a shame. That is why you end up seeing them play catch-up a lot as we get closer to events. So it’s not that the NWS folks are all idiots. It’s really just the system they have to work with. They are confined to the rules.
GFS has been screaming ICE nearby for a solid WEEK now.. but we didn’t see published forecasts here reflect that until today. Sigh..
Thats nuts… but I get it.
anyone seeing any flurries along I-75? seems like some showing up on radar, probably virga though.
NWS seems to think long term warm will hold here in southern ky…the models are all over the place as they have been all winter long.. this has got to be getting close to the top #1 SNOWLESS winter ever here in ky…with the exceptions of those who have gotten lucky during the clippers..
Seattle is really under the gun, had close to 7″ of snow yesterday, Now since last night they have been getting FREEZING RAIN temp. at 28* with ICE STORM WARNINGS..over 20,000 people without electricity, on road Jimcantore said has 28 trees across it and more still falling…ice accumulations today up to half inch !!.. what a mess!! the snow is one thing but ice is an entirely different beast to be reconed with…
that radar is looking promising for a little snow tonight in my neck of the woods in southeast ohio, keeping my fingers crossed. Very curious about the saturday system, heading up to akron canton area, should be a fun road trip!
Man this has been a cold spring- er, warm winter so far 😉
Got to laugh, since what else is there?
The gfs has lost its mind, completely.
1in of snow so far this winter in my backyard (east Frankfort). What a difference a year makes, last year we had about 20in up to this point. Some folks with the clipper bands this year have had 5in plus in some areas. Still think Feb/March will bring some snow lover smiles to KY.
Any chance there is enough snow for a snow day tomorrow????
Wow, this Winter is quickly turning into the worst winters ever for snow and cold lovers. Starting to resemble the Winter of 1988-89, when Louisville picked up less than 1″ of snow for the entire season. Not much to look forward to either, just more of the same-heavy rain and mild temps.
Winter is half and a week over. We still have plenty of winter left so lets not give up hope. As mentioned in NOV/DEC/JAN it looks as though the NAO / AO / PNA are all alligning to give the East a substainable cold pattern with numerous storms. Let us enjoy the last couple of warm weeks here in January, dodge a few more tornadoes, watch the early spring flowers show there faces. Then in February all will change. I just don’t see the cold hanging out up North all winter. We could be in for a rude awaking come Spring.
tx WXMAN and MJ for ur thoughts and updates etc. yea temp GRAD look crazy.
it was alot colder than i thought this morning, had sum teens.
as far as the redneck outlook, mainly warmer with those 1 -2 days shot of shallow cold, meaning juysat cant hang around for no time.
well IMO its time to look ahead to next winter as far as winter weather goes. back tpo present im getting in the fishing mood and tournement basketball!!!!wooooooooooooooo
Winter? sorry closed!
I’ll be looking at data long term, like 2 weeks away, but indications are hinting at another run for favorable conditions supporting a block. Yeah, we’ll see…
Chris, I seen were you tweeted about snow in the north and east tonight. Are you thinking more north east, say ashland for example or does this include areas like pike, lee, owsley and some of those areas?
Wake me when winter starts!