Good Sunday everyone. Our weekend weather has taken a walk on the wild side of things. We had ice, severe thunderstorms, sleet, flooding, rain, snow, mild air and cold air Friday night into Saturday across the state. Did anyone see locusts? Let’s just go ahead and keep the extreme weather rolling with the possibility of a significant severe weather outbreak later today into tonight.
We have a strong cold front that is plowing into the plains states today and this will roll through here overnight with a squall line of thunderstorms. This line will develop across western Kentucky during the late afternoon and early evening hours and race across the state thereafter. The Storm Prediction Center isn’t holding back on the potential…
That is just crazy to see in the middle of January… especially this far north. Damaging winds will be the primary threat from these storms, with a tornado threat also in the mix. Areas of central and western Kentucky are most at risk, but I would expect that slight risk area to be pushed farther east as the storms progress.
It will be interesting to see how the early day clouds and cold temps play a role in all this.
I will get some storm tracking maps online later today. Don’t forget about the normal tracking tools at the top of the page.
I will have more updates through the day. Your twitter timeline may blow up later today. 😉 Have a great Sunday and take care.
This forecast sounds like April. Hope everyone stays safe. I don’t much care for winds and tornados, would rather have snow
Kentucky winters are pathetic. Enough said.
Obviously you havent seen the 70’s, and the 90’s. And I dont mind having severe weather in January. Seems like we cant buy it in April.
Been there and done that. Why would you want to see destrucive April climate during the winter months.
They are not really pathetic. They are just very interesting. I have always said that KY is a special place. the lack of snow is pathetic, I agree, but, that could be said for a lot ov places this year. (Alaska is getting it all.) 🙂
If you are a snow lover, this is not the place to be. The weather patterns usually keep the snow away when it’s cold enough for it, and that’s just the way it is. This is a great place for weather in general, though, because we get a little bit of everything.
Anyone know how the roads are in the Corbin area? I saw the special weather statement about freezing drizzle and freezing fog was wondering if we actually got a “glaze”
Freezing drizzle at my location just south of Louisville. But, temperature has now risen to 32. That’s up 3 degrees overnight.
Dewpoints and shear will drive the squall line expected to develop after dark for many. Highest dewpoints (near 60 or so) look to be in far west Ky with modest dewpoints central (perhaps low to mid 50’s).
Helicity values (shear) look impressive along the entire squall as it approaches us in Louisville later.
Watch for energy being suppressed if enough tornadic cells develop across MS/TN/AR. Still, west Ky to southcentral look to get in on most of the best chances.
Elsewhere, still expecting a line of 45-50 mph winds on average. With a fairly strong jet just above the surface that exceeds 70mph, wouldn’t be surprised for some of those winds to mix down to the surface.
Also, hail up to 1″ could be an issue for some with this line.
West of 75 needs to be on high alert as we roll into tonight. This thing will be very dangerous, and will likely include destructive widns and isolated tornadoes. The SPC will likely move their moderate risk up into KY just based on the wind field alone. This has prime written all over it.
Amazing that we can go from sub-freezing to severe weather in less than 24 hours. I would prefer some boring sunny days with no wind and temps in the 20’s. (to keep the horses from tearing up the ground)
Well, I would just prefer a big snow andsome cold to go with it. I never have liked roller coasters. And I would like to get off of this one! Thanks, Chris. I know we will be hearing a lot from you later today. Everyone stay safe.
Anyone want to throw out a time they think this squall line will be going through Bowling Green?
Well, looks like E-Town is in the bullseye part again, according to the updated spc this morning, and our local Met.
Wow, I sure don’t feel like going thru this stress today…my whole house is ill including me. Hopefully, this will be the last of these ‘winter’ tornados. 🙁
Good call by the SPC…mod risk extended to west ky. Unfortunately, being at night, this one’s going to need to be watched. Hopefully, it won’t get that bad, but taking no chances. Too many variables in place for a while now for this not to occur.
It’s still only 33 in Lexington. So what happens tonight if it does what did yesterday and doesn’t get anywhere near as warm as the mets and weather centers called for? That much rain at 32 or 33 degrees could be a real mess!
Temps are now climbing like a home sick angel, Lexington is now at 47, and Somerset 58!
NWS is having a conference call with media at 2pm today. Tres interestante……
38 degrees @ 11:30…..better get a move on to “top out @ 60″…. It has been a terrible winter to forecast…everyone forecasts something different and are all right at some point during that day….weird, wild stuff as Johnny Carson would say.
36 here now (windchill 28) – though our home therm says 34. It has a long way to go to get to the upper 50’s!
Storm is slowing down. Don’t think it will be as bad as anticipated. That’s a good thing.
Slowing down is not really a good thing. That could allow much better moisture getting up into the region. Regardless, everyone should have a plan of action for tonight. Know what you are going to do if a warning is issued for your county.
No reason to think this is a good thing. Typically, storms would lose their punch later during the night, but this is different…much different.
Okay, I’ve asked this before and nobody answered. Is there still a chance for squall lines and the such tonight? Could we see some flurries? Just wondering.
There is a huge change that severe weather could become a good player within this storm.
Dont be fooled, this system will be VERY dangerous. Temps will surge this afternoon, and the wind fields with this thing are unreal. Please, PLEASE be alert tonight, especially if you live in the louisville and paducah warning areas.
surface helicity values up to 1000 m2/s2 tonight!!! anythign over 600 is EXTREME! Even locations along i65 have a decent chance at seeing multiple tornadoes! the shear is UNREAL!
That what Im saying man. ANYONE , and I do mean anyone who lives west of I-75 absolutely NEEDS to be prepared for a severe weather outbreak.
Will there be a threat here in Eastern KY, say Floyd Co, or will it have weakened by the time it reaches our parts. Its 55 here now and sunny.
I’m wondering the same about Johnson….I think we can rest easier if we see more tornadic storms in the Mo/Tn areas seeing as how it will take some of the energy away before it gets here. I could be wrong though. Praying for safety for all areas though 🙂
I chatted with a met at NWS Jackson KY a few years ago. He said eastern Ky had somewhat uneven coverage until the mid-1990s, so many tornadoes could have been missed. Still, over the last 120 years or so, eastern KY has had very few twisters. Even since Jackson’s Doppler radar came online in 1996 or so, only a few F0/F1 twisters have been recorded, like:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=66274&source=2
In a nutshell, he and others say a combination of a rising elevation, and terrain that is rugged, widespread, and irregular makes ground level conditions somewhat less conducive for tornadoes; eastern KY and most of WV of course have this kind of topography. Even the huge Super Outbreak of 1974 stopped producing tornadoes for most part once east of I-75 (south of Richmond) although one big exception to this was southern WV; numerous twisters ransacked the Beckley area. The WV twisters went up and down ridges with little trouble, two tornadoes even crossed the New River Gorge.
http://stormhighway.com/wvstorms.shtml
Needless to say, one needs to be prepared for anything with this upcoming storm. However, if past history plays out, eastern KY may have more of a damaging wind threat, less of twisters.
Thanks so much for the info!
Happy to help. The NWS Jackson KY has just put out a web briefing on its site regarding the storm’s likely effect on eastern KY:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/
Do not like the thought of sever weather and hope everyone remains safe.
How much cold do we get with this front?
The timing of this is going to stink.
Eastern Boyle County: Breaks in clouds, winds picking up, temp beginning to spike up. Now at 55*
Storm Chasers:
Here is a live link to one of many chasers out in the thick of things.
http://www.severestudios.com/livechase
These provide live streams from the storms. The streams are more active in the spring than winter but there will be some out there today and tonight.
Metro Memphis TN expecting line to reach them between 7 and 10pm cst.
Looks like main line won’t approach region until after midnight for Louisville and I65 corridor.
Multiple storm chasers from various organizations are presently positioned in the area of NW Mississippi to Memphis, Tn.