Good Sunday afternoon. Our air mass is slowly becoming more conducive to severe weather this evening into the overnight hours. It’s really an amazing transformation to go from freezing drizzle and fog to severe weather within a few hours of one another.
Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are possible across the state later today into tonight. The best risk is across central and western Kentucky and the SPC has upgraded much of that area to a Moderate Risk.
I have this blog setup for your one stop shop to all things severe weather and will be dropping by for updates through the day.
Current Risk
Current Watches
Possible Watch Areas
Don’t forget about the radars, current conditions and cams at the top of the page. I will have more updates as needed and will continue to send out quick updates via twitter.
Take care.
DISLIKE!!!!
Will the tornado threat carry over into EKY late tonight?
Needless to say, one needs to be prepared for anything with this upcoming storm. The NWS Jackson KY can give you good info for your area.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/
But if past history plays out, eastern KY may have more of a damaging wind threat, less of twisters.
I chatted with a met at NWS Jackson a few years ago. He said eastern KY had somewhat uneven coverage until the mid-1990s, so many tornadoes could have been missed. Still, eastern KY has had very few twisters over the last 120 years or so. Even since Jackson’s Doppler radar came online in 1996 or so, only a few F0/F1 twisters have been recorded, like:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=66274&source=2
In a nutshell, he and others say a combination of a rising elevation, and terrain that is rugged, widespread, and irregular makes ground level conditions somewhat less conducive for tornadoes; eastern KY and most of WV of course have this kind of topography. Even the huge 1974 Super Outbreak stopped producing tornadoes for most part once east of I-75/south of Richmond KY, although a big exception was southern WV; numerous twisters ransacked the Beckley area. The WV twisters went up and down ridges with little trouble, two tornadoes even crossed the New River Gorge.
http://stormhighway.com/wvstorms.shtml
It helps to distinguish between how rugged terrain effects tornado genesis vs rugged terrain effecting already formed twisters. Contrary to popular misconception, ridges have little effect on tornadoes.
Unlike eastern KY, other places have flat and rugged terrain more adjacent to each other; tornadic storms over flat areas can have lag time to spawn twisters in nearby ridges. Mountainous areas of Missouri, Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma have seen plenty of tornadoes the last century, like this 2008 tornado in the Ozarks:
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/103/index.html
The April 27 2011 outbreak saw many twisters crossing rugged terrain in Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee; here’s video of damage path in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park near Knoxville:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlnGMxBGk6I
Every time I spend a day reading about an impending severe weather outbreak, I am reminded that we need to build a storm shelter in our house. We have contacted various out of state companies that offer such services but they want to send us a pre-made room and let us do the work, sight unseen. Does anybody know of a local company that would come out and look at our house, help us decide on a good location, and then build the dang thing?? By local, I mean somebody that would travel to the Paris area. Thanks!!
I work for a company that would, but you better be prepared to pay… An underground cement room isn’t exactly cheap lol
I want an above ground safe room like they make for people in Texas who can’t build anything underground. The room is attached to the foundation with steel rods. We have a cistern we don’t use and if we pulled it out, we’d have a big hole with limestone all around. Very solid limestone! Does your company have any ideas for that sort of thing? Thanks!
LMK mentions that the “models” are slowing down the timing on the squall line. They are talking about the 3-6 AM timeframe for the LEX area. Funny thing is.. days ago the GFS was bringing the line through here at 4AM and I even was using that exact hour in my comments. I suppose the “models” they are using are any of them other than GFS. 😉
In any case.. the important thing here is to keep people safe. Early on a Monday morning is a horrible time for a severe weather outbreak. People will not be paying attention unless they know about this ahead of time. Hopefully, if the forecast verifies… SPC will get a watch box in place before 10PM tonight. That way at least persons will be aware of what is coming during the night.
I agree. They need to put out a watch before everyone goes to bed. Even if nothing comes of it better save than sorry.
Seen a post on FB from News Channel 14 they had posted a map and r calling for only rain in WKY and the strong storms will stay in MO. They r the only weather ppl I’ve seen calling for just rain for our area. Everyone else is calling for strong storms for us extreme wky folks. But as of right now its very cloudy, foggy, with a slight wind, and its still pretty cold. I figured the wind is having to do with the southern winds r starting to come in.
Live Chasers:
Here are a couple links to storm chasers live streams. As the storms become more active more chasers will start streaming. As of 4pm most chasers are congregated in NW Mississippi north to Memphis and westward. As the evening progresses chasers will follow the storms.
http://www.severestudios.com/livechase
http://www.chasertv.com/
These are not the only groups but a good place to start.
Hope it’s before 3 or after 6 in Lexington. Not cool for those of us out throwing newspapers at that time of morning-or the District Manager in charge of them.
Well, since this winter so far has been a bust in terms of snow, it is at least interesting. Having this develop overnight should not be a surprise considering Ky weather the last year. For those of you who know what you are doing meteorological wise—-is forecasting for this region of the US more challenging than most other areas? Also, like I posted the other day- the Feb. 2008 night-time storm in Mercer was awful. Same kind of set up with this storm. Our tree line will never be the same.
Creepin up on mid 60’s down in south KY. Incredible.
SPC considering issuance of a Tornado Watch for parts of LA, west TN, AR, and west MS by 6pm cst.
I expect additional watches to be issued in quick order for west KY, west central parts of TN, MO, southern IL, and central MS.
Well, it’s 53 here with fog and mist. I am really dreading the severe storms and the fact that they will come overnight. I agree with those who have stated that watches should be posted before people go to bed. Half of my family didn’t know storms were even a possibility until I told them.
Temp is now up to 56.
This weather makes working in a chemical factory interesting.
I hate this winter. I guess it will be summer time in late April. How about that snow coming next weekend.lol If this trend continues over the next few years we will have to except that the earth’s atmosphere is going thru some changes.
This weekends forecast: partly cloudy, temps in mid 40s
Tornado watch just issued for part of MO, TN, AR, MS. PDS along with it. SPC is not messing around this evening…
Probabilities are quite disturbing…
High risk (90%)of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod risk(60%) of 1 or more ef2-ef5 tornadoes
High risk(90%) of 10 events where winds exceed 58mph
Mod risk(60%) of at least 1 event where winds exceed 74mph
Ouch. That first watch is a PDS watch, and daughter is in it at Ole Miss.
I hope all stays well with your daughter. It’s scary when your kids are away from you, especially in severe weather conditions.
Thanks. She lives in a corner room 8 stories up in a 12 story freshman dorm. She’s smart, so I’m not gonna go helicopter parent about it.
Tornado Watch coming soon for west KY
I still think moderate risk should be all the way to I-65 corridor. I-75 and west should be in at least 30% risk of wind damage. Guys, this thing means business.
What is expected in Lexington when this system comes thru?
Will it be winding down by then??
Tornado Watch for us until 2:00am