Good Sunday everyone. We are just about to wrap up the month of January and it has been a huge disappointment for snow and cold lovers. It’s the time of year when your friendly weatherdude begins to start getting into spring mode. I’m more of a first half of winter snow lover and I like when we can get in on an early start to spring. The problem with this is… It’s looking more like winter may want to crash that early spring party.
Let’s talk about the short-term weather before getting into all that.
We have another front crossing the region today and this will bring another round of gusty winds. The time of the front is into the afternoon hours and this should allow for temps to spike in front of it. Clouds will increase and some flurries or a light snow shower may graze parts of the north and northeast later today.
Temps into the first half of the new week will head toward the 50s… again. Clouds and some showers will be on the increase by Wednesday as we start to see some of those changes showing up for early February. A big ridge of high pressure is going to go up along the west coast and this forces the jet stream to dig into the eastern half of the country. The latest GFS shows this well…
Exactly where that trough digs in is yet to be determined. I still think we could be looking at an upper level low cutting off somewhere nearby. If we assume that the GFS is playing the trough right (that’s a stretch)… then it should produce a storm in the eastern half of the country.
Both the GFS and GFS Ensembles like the idea of a storm later Friday…
The models will all show something different with each run over the next few days, so take them with a grain of salt. It gives us something to watch in the week ahead.
Looking farther down the road into February… the indices I keep tabs on are all pointing toward a wintry look for the first time this season.
A combination of a positive PNA… Negative NAO, EPO and AO is a look we have not had since last winter. Now, let’s see if February can salvage some cold and snow for winter lovers.
Have a great Sunday and take care.
tx CB. I been getting all kinds hate for my thoughts last couple weeks. good to see u posting about winter returning.
going get interesting folks by end next week on thru FEB.
Rolo, I hope that both of you are right. I am still wanting to see a good snow and some cold temps. When Chris, and you both say “interesting” it peaks my curiousity, and my fingers find themselves wanting to “cross”. I still say we need a good snow and some cold weather. Maybe we will get it yet!
Thanks, Chris. So we are on the seesaw again with the temps. Temps today in the forties ahead of the front? Are we talking wind chill factors today with gusty winds? Just wondering. As far as your 7 PM udate last night, ITs alright. Even the “puppetmaster” has to have some rest at some point! 😉 Thanks for all you do, andhave a GREAT day!
chris, you better not be so quick this year to go into spring mode cause if u do i am afraid u r going to be as dissapointed as all the snow lovers have been this year, so far. our winter is far from over. snow on easter, anyone? how about mothers day? well mothers day might be stretching it but u get the picture. we have had spring in dec. and jan. now we are going to have winter in feb. and march and april and possibly going into may. no early planting this year in the veggie gardens or the flower gardens.
I dont doubt it, at least that is my gut feeling; I would feel better about it if I could get the models to lock onto a relatively similiar solution for more than one run; cold on Easter is not out of the question since it is so early
Fall to Spring……Spring to Winter….Winter to Summer….Let us hope so anyhow. As I stated back in early Jan. the cold can’t hang out up North the entire season. It has to drop down at some point in time. I just hope it is not to late in the season to provide us with some decent snow.
THINK COLD!!! and the snow will follow.
CB, thanks for the update as always.
The Kentucky football season and Kentucky winter season have a lot in common.
1) at the beginning of the season your excited and hopeful for the possibilities knowing in the back of your mind your more than likely going to be disappointed.
2) each week you anticipate a new game and victory, or the 7 day out gfs forecast. At the end of the week your probably disappointed.
3) at the end of winter or the football season you look forward to another season of great hopes and possibilities, knowing you will probably be disappointed.
One outlier with this analogy is that Kentucky did beat Tennessee at the end of the season which in weather comparison would be the equivalent of an 18 in inch snowstorm/blizzard.
In that respect I will continue to hope and dream, knowing I’ll probably be disappointed.
Ha, that is so true!!
The same applies to owning a thoroughbred. The trainer always finds something to get you excited enough to keep paying the day rate, even though he probably knows that there is no purse money in your future. The next race is always the one that will be the breakthrough, and yet you know that you will most likely be disappointed.
I just walked three miles around my farm and somehow I was always walking INTO the wind. Good grief, I am so sick of wind!!!!
Test , nothing more disappointing than writing a paragraph at this site and not being posted. Kind of some sums up the winter here in Louisville.
Sightings of ‘signs’ of winter remind me of a search for unicorns this year. Our mythological winter remains elusive. I’ll believe the season has decided to visit when I have a snowball gripped tightly in my hand.
Stil 7 to 10 days out…It could be sunny and 70 by that time…lol
I cannot believe all you people do not have any confidence in all these wonderful forecast models. I do think it might snow next week some where besides Ky.
Some nice pics of Morristown’s radar upgrade.
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Morristown.gov
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/?n=dual_pol
Other NWS offices in/near Kentucky aren’t scheduled for upgrade until this fall, but KY counties near Nashville (and soon Morristown) now have dual pol coverage. Many tv stations have already upgraded their wx radars.
Models need some fine tuning. Re-programming may be a better term.
latest from the guys at Snow day!!
This is the first snow map they have put out all winter that involves the entire Ohio Valley potentially getting dumped on.
http://snowday.community.officelive.com/default.aspx
BG from Wave3 gave Snow Day a plug. Like them on FB & you can follow the discussion & their thoughts on a potential “major” snowfall next wknd. As of now, Snow Day has Louisville right in the crosshairs (their wording, not mine).
we shall see!
I have patience 😉
Crosshairs….Hmmm…Is that the dreaded fence…or…smack in the middle of the heavy stuff. Could be cold rain for most. It should be interesting to follow anyhow.
well i tell ya’, the “warm” winter has definitely had an impact on our remote starter business. Usually our busiest times are January thru the middle of February. But being a snow lover, I have been extremely disappointed this year. Tryin’ not to get my hopes up on this one, but everytime CB says it might be “interesting”, a little child somewhere inside my persona starts to get excited and chants “snow day, snow day, snow day”…….