Good afternoon, gang. It’s a windy day out there as we await the arrival of a Sunday snow system that can cause some travel issues. That system is one of several we will be tracking over the next few weeks as we begin out back loaded winter.
We will likely see snow showers and flurries start to develop late this evening as a disturbance drops in. Some of those can get a little frisky overnight and can put down some local 1″ snows.
The main system arrives as we get deeper into Sunday and lasts through Monday morning. There are some pretty good dynamics at play with this system. Check out this vort max diving into central Kentucky by Sunday afternoon…
You can get some good rising motion on the nose of that thing and that can sometimes lead to a clap or two of thunder. The NAM actually shows TSSN in the hourly raw data tomorrow afternoon. If that develops, you can get pockets of higher totals.
You can see how that is aimed from northwest to southeast, and I’m trying to key in on that as the best area for accumulations. Here’s the current call…
I reserve the right to mix and match lines and totals later tonight as new data comes in. That’s when the Last Call For Snowfall map will be issued.
I would expect Winter Weather Advisories to be issued for just about the entire state.
That system zips through by Monday afternoon as we focus on another system moving in for Tuesday. That can initially produce a rain shower, with colder air and snow showers behind the front. Watch for a swath of light snow and flurries for Wednesday.
Another system then shows up by Friday with potential light snow accumulations. After that, there is a healthy signal for an Ohio/Tennessee Valley winter storm. It’s way to early to determine what, if any, impact it has on our weather in Kentucky, but it bears watching.
It is interesting to look at the 7 day snow map from the GFS as it shows the impact of these multiple systems rolling across our region…
The Canadian has a similar layout in terms of overall presentation…
For budding meteorologists and model watchers, this is one of the rare times the European Model is out of touch. I blogged about this very thing several days ago and, sure enough, it hasn’t let me down. It was initially showing a blowtorch for the week ahead and now it is showing it to be so cold that the storm track goes to our south. That said, it’s awfully close to showing a huge storm for our region. The model typically has issues when there is so much energy ejecting out of the southwestern part of the country.
Next weekend has a chance, folks. To quote one of the all time philosophical thinkers of our time…
In the short term, maybe we should get the kiddos and the teachers to fire up their best snow dances…
If that is you this weekend, tweet me some video and I will show ya off. 🙂
If I have any changes, I will update things this evening. If not, I will see you guys back here later tonight. Happy dancing and take care.
I’m really hoping for a snow storm
Thanks Chris! Here`s hoping. We have nothin` to lose at this point. 😉
That is one very positive way of looking at this winter. Here is another positive take: Our season-to-date totals can’t go down from where they are right now…kinda like the absolute value law in math;)
😉
I just left this on your last post, right before you updated totals.
“We’re getting close to the NAM’s sweet spot for accuracy with the 12z run. Up to an inch for Louisville; 1-2″ Lexington; 2-4″ Eastern Ky…this is just general, not focusing on potential for heavier bands.” This is my opinion, not CB’s…but still not too far off.
Looks good…if that Vort max holds true, Louisville will be closer to the 2-3″ range.
We will have to see if this happens and where the possible “thundersnow” develops.
Could some isloted area get close to 6 inches?? I have seen this happens many times with this type of clipper!
…happen many times.
I notice that about the Euro…a complete about face. Teleconnection patterns favor a system similar to early January. EPO- and a neutral AO wanting to trend more positive. I like how the Climate Prediction Center has in their 8-14 day outlook labeled ‘heavy precipitation’ for the 4th and 5th of February
Only 30+ more runs of the GFS…
but at least we’re in the chance category, which is much more than we’ve had most of winter, looking like the clipper before might over perform as well. a win win
What a happy post!
Chris might be coming back from Darth Bubba and the dark side.
🙂
Hoping we get that snow!! 😀
What a great post Chris! Answer the negative vibe of some folks with some good fun and stats to back it up. This might be one of our best weeks of winter watching this season. Getting nervous about the ballgame. Yikes!
Hey Chris Bailey. I just want you to know that’s it’s refreshing to hear you help out the budding meteorologists and model watchers, and not bash them like a certain Louisville met does. Thank you for that. your blog is THE go to place, whether a weather lover is in Louisville (like me) or anywhere in the state of KY.
Yes thank you CB, sincerely Marc with a C Weinberg.
We will take what we get❄️⛄️
The 50 degree temp and sun doesn’t make me very hopeful for accumulation tomorrow for my area.
I was thinking the exact thing. Gonna have to get a lot colder.
NWS in Charleston is not saying there’s going to be a lot of snow for us in Southern Ohio Sunday and Monday. Maybe that will change.
Andy you burst the positive thinking of all the positive posts we had so far. Lol
I’m really a person who likes to see it snow. When I was a kid we would take an old car hood and ride it down the hill. You could get several people on it. And it would fly.
Sorry…
By the way this kid is 66 years old now.
We better hope 18z GFS new doesn’t come true for next weekend. Shows major ice storm.
For a positive no ice situation, next weekend’s storm doesn’t favor ice as we will not have overrunning due to lack of arctic air…rain/snow mix and (hopefully) more snow looks more likely..though a wet snow can be destructive if that happens!
Honestly, the models can’t forecast ice very well. The last few runs showed minimal ice. I am hoping for snow, though
Another big *sigh* for me. What kind of conditions have to happen for NKY to get it on the snow y’all get in central/eastern KY?
You have a short memory. 🙂 A few years ago the same sort of comments were being made from CKY about NKY.
If you want the half inch of snow i have gotten so far you can have it
Unfortunately, this is going to be a nail-biter. Where the rain/snow line next Sunday will decide who gets 4″ of snow vs 0.1″ of ice or just rain. Honestly, I’m hoping I get the snow part, in Owensboro, and I have a better shot than places like BG. Good luck to all of you snow-lovers!!
Seems a handful of Cats may be more concerned with dwelling on the NBA draft rankings than the season. Hopefully Cal can get them back on topic 🙂
Disappointing game to say the least
One and done sucks IMO..Got to have a big man in the middle..Look what happen when Davis was around..Bam is Okay but no Davis..Winter weather wise sucks like Ky Basketball..
What are your alls thoughts on the storm for next weekend? I am very interested in it. Will be looking at 00z GFS at 10:30.