Good afternoon, gang. It’s a windy day out there as we await the arrival of  a Sunday snow system that can cause some travel issues. That system is one of several we will be tracking over the next few weeks as we begin out back loaded winter.

We will likely see snow showers and flurries start to develop late this evening as a disturbance drops in. Some of those can get a little frisky overnight and can put down some local 1″ snows.

The main system arrives as we get deeper into Sunday and lasts through Monday morning. There are some pretty good dynamics at play with this system. Check out this vort max diving into central Kentucky by Sunday afternoon…

NAM

You can get some good rising motion on the nose of that thing and that can sometimes lead to a clap or two of thunder. The NAM actually shows TSSN in the hourly raw data tomorrow afternoon. If that develops, you can get pockets of higher totals.

You can see how that is aimed from northwest to southeast, and I’m trying to key in on that as the best area for accumulations. Here’s the current call…

Special 2

I reserve the right to mix and match lines and totals later tonight as new data comes in. That’s when the Last Call For Snowfall map will be issued.

I would expect Winter Weather Advisories to be issued for just about the entire state.

That system zips through by Monday afternoon as we focus on another system moving in for Tuesday. That can initially produce a rain shower, with colder air and snow showers behind the front. Watch for a swath of light snow and flurries for Wednesday.

Another system then shows up by Friday with potential light snow accumulations. After that, there is a healthy signal for an Ohio/Tennessee Valley winter storm. It’s way to early to determine what, if any, impact it has on our weather in Kentucky, but it bears watching.

It is interesting to look at the 7 day snow map from the GFS as it shows the impact of these multiple systems rolling across our region…

GFS Snow 2

The Canadian has a similar layout in terms of overall presentation…

Canadian 3

For budding meteorologists and model watchers, this is one of the rare times the European Model is out of touch. I blogged about this very thing several days ago and, sure enough, it hasn’t let me down. It was initially showing a blowtorch for the week ahead and now it is showing it to be so cold that the storm track goes to our south. That said, it’s awfully close to showing a huge storm for our region. The model typically has issues when there is so much energy ejecting out of the southwestern part of the country.

Next weekend has a chance, folks. To quote one of the all time philosophical thinkers of our time…

Chance

In the short term, maybe we should get the kiddos and the teachers to fire up their best snow dances…

Happy dance

If that is you this weekend, tweet me some video and I will show ya off. 🙂

If I have any changes, I will update things this evening. If not, I will see you guys back here later tonight. Happy dancing and take care.