Good Super Bowl Sunday to one and all. We have arrived at the day that has basically become a national holiday filled with hot wings, 6 foot subs and pizzas. The weather kinda takes a backseat on a day like this and I can’t argue with that. I mean… it’s hard to compete with all of that AND the possibility of a wardrobe malfunction. But, we will do our best to keep your attention for a bit.
The weather out there today will start out ugly with low clouds, fog and scattered showers hanging on. Conditions will slowly improve into the afternoon hours and we may even see a few rays of sun. Temps today will hit the low and mid 40s for many with a 50 or better in the west and south. That has been a common temp theme this winter.
Monday into Tuesday look pretty good with readings in the upper 40s to near 50.
The mid-week system will need to be watched for the possibility of some overrunning light rain or snow. The models are basically split on this with the European most aggressive.
The end of the week continues to feature a big dip in the jet stream across the eastern half of the country. This will allow for much colder air to pour into our region as temps go below normal into the coming weekend. The setup is also going to try its best to produce a storm across the east coast. The latest GFS is starting to pick up on this…
That’s a nice shot of cold coming in behind whatever storm does develop and is similar to the European Model from a few days ago.
The Canadian Model is looking similar…
We are fighting the seasonal trend with this one, but it should have our attention as it matches up with the time period the indices were hinting at some something wintry.
The overall look from the GFS Ensembles continues to be a cold one next weekend into early the following week…
Happy Super Bowl Sunday and take care.
So if I read all that correctly Lucy justed pulled the ball out from Charlie Brown one more time.
Yep! 🙂 Thats what I’m getting out of it 🙂
Who knows, perhaps winter fans will get one good storm before April. Maybe Charlie Brown will do one successful kick this winter….even if like the time he kicked Lucy’s hand instead, with Lucy afterward leering a mad look and her hand in a cast 😛
Nice some folks still get it 🙂
Thanks CB for the Super update.
We might get the cold, but will the precip train take another route. I am sure as that is just our luck here in Ky. Cold air moves in and surpresses the jet futher to the south and we get a couple clippers that provide us with no real snow. Can’t wait for Summer and 90 degree days. Have a great day everyone. Hope your team wins, unless your team like mine (Cowboys) are watching from home.
THINK SNOW!!
Thanks Chris.
I have patience 🙂
Kentucky winter 2011-12 = Tornado alley, Amazon Rain Forest, & plenty of insects ready to cause havoc like ppl wouldn’t believe!
We are sooo going to pay for these mild temps & wet soil come April-June
We really need,at least some good, cold weather. I agree totally with you., While snow would be ideal, it would help if the temps would just “come on down” and stay in the cellar for a while.
Chris…COME ON –STOP Already. Please . I know you want to promote your blog, but you have to stop this year with the next weekend, next, next, next , next…I know your not giving us a forecast on here, but STOP showing what the models are showing a week away. To be honest , I have no idea why I’m even checking this site this morning.
I’m done for the year! See you all next November
Sweet, so this is the last time we can expect to see a non-contributory, negative, pessimistic post fom you until November? Nice!
I himself hope Chris ban you after that. Completely uncalled for. Go post your negative thoughts on another site. Come November, don’t expect to be able to post again. Jerk.
*honestly
No one is twisting your arm to post on here. If you don’t like what Chris does on here then start your own blog. I have learned more on this site about maps, and all the other things Chris talks about than any other weather blog. Just like a TV or radio, there is an on button and an off button. If you think you know more than Chris, which you think you do, start your own, but until that time, stay away from his blog.
I’ve seen some warm winters in my 45 years, but this one takes the cake. I can sense Chris’ growing frustration with no cold or snow too. I think my area has had one Winter Storm Watch this winter season and it was questionable.
Thanks for the update, Chris. Hope we can get some cold air in here to stay for a bit . This winter has, indeed, been a strange one. Seems like we are having fall right now, instead of winter. Have to agree withc-BIV on the insect thing. They are going to be awful! Have a great Sunday all, and, enjoy the game later. Chris, that goes for you, too! Thanks again for all you do.
Loo-oo-cey! You Got Some ‘Splaining To Do!
This site has MORE hype than the Super Bowl….I’ve got to learn to stop sharing my weather thoughts with people after reading this site……JUST THIS WINTER, I MEAN. There hasn’t been any winter weather, but face it, this winter has been brutal for forecasters anyway. Winter of 2012 has made our CB look like Lucy’s CB (Charlie Brown).
Charlie Brown and Chris Bailey…. Coincidence?
Both are CB and both (along with the bloggies) seem to fall for the football trick (in this case, constantly missing/shifting model outlooks). The models appear to be Lucy.
Hmmm. AND it is the Superbowl. Too many coincidences. 😉
I wouldn’t say CB(Bailey) falls for the models, he reports on them. This a blog to discuss weather and he discusses the possibilities. Unfortunately Ol’ man Winter is being whooped by the warmth. One day in the future, we will have a series of Old School winters here. Everything happens in cycles and we are stuck I the cycle of THE DOME!
True, but wild coincidence they have the same initials. 🙂
Wardrobe malfunction…I had to laugh on that one. Most of us appreciate your updates and outlooks, CB, I know I do. Most of us aren’t rude, either. I want to know what the models look like even if it doesn’t pan out. Thanks for the update and for the extra time you put in, it’s appreciated.
Not rude, just Peanuts fans 🙂
Not referring to you, BubbaG, lol. I like Charlie Brown, too. It just bugs me(pun intended) that some seem to blame CB for keeping us informed. That’s why I come to the blog, to read about what the models are saying and what his input on the subject is, and I’ve been a blog fan for more than six years. You are never rude, perhaps comical, but never rude, even when someone is rude to you.
Yes, the model runs change often, but I like seeing those changes, I don’t take it as “hype”. That is not what keeps me coming back to this blog, it’s most of the people and the fact that I feel we get a “heads up” for situations developing…or not.
That’s all I meant, Darth BubbaG 🙂 (Cyber pat on the back included).
Some seem to not appreciate this is a weather blog that CB is posting his thoughts and NOT a forecast.
CB can only post what the data tells him- along with his own intuition of course. He has been clear that the actual trend results have tempered the outlooks.
Still, we need some fun, since snow beyond a mix or a freak event is not likely this winter.
Sorry, if u thought I was being rude…I didn’t think I was, but I’m with u, I get on the blog to c what Chris has to say, i guess I want a cold snow winter,,I should actually start just laughing when I c the models week out,,it’s happened over and over, its just funny, hence the peanuts reference.
Oh well, I guess I should prepare for next weekend, to hear about the next weekend being cold. Haha
OMG, is it November already?
I did not think anybody was rude 🙂 I thought we were all joking, since not much else to do.
Thanks for all the info CB!!
Good thing about the weather…schools won’t be having to make days up. Middle of May fighting insects.
I grew up along the Gulf coast of Texas and it rarely got below freezing. We did not spend any time worrying about bugs. I’ve noticed that we can have weeks of very cold weather here and yet the first sunny day brings flies into my house. Their life spans are pretty short, regardless of the temps. I can swat them now or swat them later. 🙂
Yeal, And Houston Tx. smells like a Raid factory in Jan.
Ah, when Rod Stewart was not a parody of himself and was really good.
Come on now. Ever heard the saying “Don’t shoot the messenger”?? CB just reports the models – he doesn’t promise snow. I’m sure he’s as disappointed and frustrated as the rest of us, but it is what it is. If you don’t want to hear what the current models are saying, then don’t read his blog. I, personally, appreciate the time he puts into this blog (particularly since he’s often posting in the wee hours of the morning) and take it all with a grain of salt (just not the type that we put on snowy roads!!!).
If you can’t take the heat (literally), get off the blog. 😉
I totally agree with you. I would think most that have been with CB since the beginning of this blog know it’s not “hype” it’s excitement! He loves snow as much as the rest of us snow lovers. I appreciate that he keeps us up on the weather from day to day, hour by hour even minute by minute. I don’t remember a time when CB has said severe storms coming that it was “hype” from him when it didn’t happen!
And stay away from kicking footballs!
I hope this cold air sets up shop for at least a couple weeks. Trends of this season have been for the cold to stay around for a couple days with very little precip. Then WARM/w Rain….Like a freaking broken record. Warm w/rain…..Cold / Warm w/rain …Cold / Warm w/rain / Cold / Warm w/rain…….Bring on Summer I sick of spring…
Has anyone looked at the models today? I think CB’s update was at like 2 am…have they chaneged? Still cold for next weekend?
*changed…sorry
I just took a look at the pathetic12z GFS, and it appears that all the moisture going up the southern & mid atlantic coast will stay in the form of rain. If is not going to snow here I will be grateful for the dry weekend.
The cold this weekend doesn’t appear to stay maybe 2 or 3 days. Midweek system looks to go just north of kentucky with snow. Anyone surprised? Same boat as you bengal fan, done this year. See you next december
Insects and mild winters are a good thing, they are emerging early so when the cold weather gets here in march & april they will be killed.
Four years ago today was the Super Tuesday outbreak.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Super_Tuesday_tornado_outbreak
In Kentucky, coverage areas of NWS Louisville and Paducah were affected:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=february5-6,2008outbreak
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=feb0506radarpage
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=monroecountytornadopage
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=Feb508tornadoes
Twisters continued into the early hours of Feb 6. This hammers in the importance of battery weather alert radios and other devices to convey warnings while you are asleep. Sadly, all seven KY fatalities were in mobile homes. But in Monroe County KY, thirteen people (many of them abandoning their mobile homes after 1am) took shelter in a home with a basement; they were trapped by debris, but later emerged from the wreckage alive.
Well, turns out the territory of NWS Jackson KY was also affected by twisters (Bath and Menifee Counties):
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=12920&source=2
Yes, we need some snow days (and cold temps). The insects are going to be awful, but right now there are so many illnesses going around that some snow days will keep everything from spreading more than it already has.
The last time we had early signs of spring was 2007. Then we had a big April freeze and then basically a two year drought.
oh yea of little faith. the pattern has already began to change, hence the storm in the plains made a beeline for the mid-atlantic coast on a ese projectory over the weekend instead of going for the western great lakes showing that blocking is finally starting to develop and by this time next week we should be in a winter time regime. in fact, i would be really surprised if we do not have snow on the ground by the end of next weekend into the first of next week.
i have asked several times, how about snow on easter? what about mothers day? well mothers day might be stretching it just a bit but u get the picture that i am trying to paint. march and april are going to be cold and wet and that may very well carry into may. no early panting the veggie or flower gardens this season. we had spring in dec. and jan. and part of feb. and now the 2nd half of feb. will feature winter like conditions along with march and april like i said earlier. we shall see. thanks for reading and god bless.
I can route for snow into the first week of April after that I am through with snow until the last week of October.
NWS three month outlook showing above average temps for Feb-May. Normal temps for summer. Just because Dec-January didn’t have cold, doesn’t mean March and April is going to be. Could very well be, but someone is looking at models suggesting otherwise. I really don’t want a cold spring and hoping your prediction is wrong. lol
Some of our local mets in swva/ne tn our beginning to move over to the snow/cold train for the weekend.
Maybe I should of use the word root instead of route.
I agree the weather will turn colder as we progress thru the week. The “brutal” cold looks to last just a couple days. The chances for snow are questionable. However, maybe an outside chance of something on the small side Tues.night into Wed?
March 7th 2008….. Need I say more?
Hey I remember that storm… it was the only time I saw snow in Memphis in the 5 yrs I lived there. We got like 5-6 inches. 🙂
0.5″ snowfall officially in LEX? OK.. what about it?
I think March 8th 2008 is what you’re going for with 4 inches at LEX.
+ NAO means storm unlikely next weekend.
I remember a pretty good snow on the 6th day of April. can’t remember the year, early 80’s I think. it didn’t last long, but we had a snow
If you want to talk weird snow memories…I remember going to the Derby Breakfast (back in the 80s, but don’t remember the year) and it was snowing! That was bizarre.