Good Monday, everyone. I hope you had a great Super Bowl Weekend and enjoyed the unofficial national holiday. The day after the big day is one usually featuring a lot of folks calling in sick. Use ’em if you got ’em. 🙂 It’s shaping up to be a good-looking start to a week that actually features the chance for some… drumroll please… snow!
Our Monday will start off with frost and fog and temps in the upper 20s and low 30s. Readings will rebound into the upper 40s to near 50 for many areas under partly to mostly sunny skies.
Tuesday will feature another nice day with clouds on the increase and temps back into the 40s.
Those clouds are ahead of a weak wave of low pressure passing through the Tennessee Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will cause light rain and light snow to develop across the entire region by early Wednesday. Temps are marginal with this system and that means a mix of rain and snow for Wednesday. The farther north you live… the better the chance for some light accumulations.
Check out the GFS precipitation type forecast…
That is generally light precipitation and the warm ground will assure us of a lot of melting. There is another weak disturbance coming in behind this for Wednesday night and Thursday morning and that should keep some light snow and flurries going.
That takes us into the end of the week and into the coming weekend. The models continue to advertise a big dip in the jet stream across the eastern half of the country. This dip will allow for the coldest air we’ve had in a while to work in here (that’s not saying much). Will it spawn a storm to our south or along the east coast? The seasonal trend says no, but an argument can certainly be made for it based purely on the pattern.
Last night into Today marks the 4 year anniversary of one of the great tornado outbreaks in Kentucky’s history. It’s known as the Super Tuesday outbreak and it spawned 87 tornadoes with the bluegrass state taking a direct hit.
That was a wicked night of weather and one many of you surely remember.
That winter was rather mild and snowless through February and has been similar to this one. Early March of that year then brought a crippling snowstorm to many areas.
Have a great Monday and take care.
sounds like Chris is ready to throw in the towel…… 🙁
Wow, has it been 4 years already? Let’s hope we have nothing in the cards like that for anyone this year.
Even if it doesn’t last due to a warm ground, I’ll take any snow I can get right now. I have S.A.D. from a *lack* of winter rather than from it!
I hope everyone has a better than expected Monday morning.
Was that also the year of the ice storm, or was that three years ago?
All those ankle biter snow years get mixed up to me, but we did have perhaps one decent snow amongst them…. Hard to remember with this “springly” winter we have been having.
That was one of the best nights in my memory. I loved waking up at 1 am to a major squall line. The destruction is brought wasn’t great, but I was excited about the storms anyhow. Then, one month later we had the biggest snowstorm in my memory. Here in Lawrenceburg, we had between 8 and 10 inches depending on where you live in the county. What a year.
?? People died about ten miles (as the crow flies) from where I live and dozens of houses badly damaged or destroyed. Not sure how that would rate a best, but perhpas I am taking it out of context.
I have to agree with you on that one…severe weather of any kind isn’t something we should delight in….I enjoy a good snow as much as the next person, but I also know it creates many problems for many people. At least, though, with snow, most people can prepare somewhat….but I would never take delight in tornados or weather of that nature!
You’re pathetic. How dare you enjoy nature and the power of creation. LOL.
Some people just can’t make the connection that enjoying a healthy thunderstorm has NOTHING to do with wishing for loss of life and property. Sigh.. It’s really starting to get old. REALLY old.
You’re a saint for announcing this revelation to us.
To the rest of you, quit hounding me for being a weather enthusiast. Some of you are the least appreciative of natures wonders I know. Why would someone ever wish for death and destruction? I wish to see natures beauty displayed. Now quit hounding the severe weather lovers.
Who are you to be insulting other people?
How am I insulting others with this? You tell me right now how I am?
LoL
What I remember most were those two tornadoes that hit the Allen and Monroe county area of Kentucky. They had carried debris for over 60 miles. One of the things that was found was a personal check from someone who lived down in southern TN. That check was carried by the storm all the way into Kentucky and when it was found it was still legible. Just wild stuff that night…it was ripping up peoples’ houses constantly.
Did you see the white stuff out there this morning. wow..been a while , it was all over the cars, trees, grounds,,,,wait, that was frost, sorry,
It still was pretty though, it was a heavy frost, reminded me of snow of recent years, having a hard time of even saying the word snow, or even reading chris title of snow???
Oh well, maybe we will see a little flying around middle of the week, but nothing to really see, I think this morning’s frost will look prettier than anything we get this week
Bubba, the ice storm was 2009.
That Super Tuesday outbreak was something else. The Super Outbreak of 2011 was much bigger overall but the Super Tuesday outbreak of ’08 was more impactful to Kentucky and nothing to sneeze at. That squall line was one of two powerful squall lines that blew through Northern Kentucky that winter.
And yes we had a big-time snowstorm a month later that was odd.
The Super Tuesday squall line was indeed impressive; the deadly Muhlenberg County (Central City) twister came from this line. While squall line twisters are generally less intense, bad thing is they are harder to detect on radar and thus can have less warning time that supercell twisters. The Muhlenberg County tornado still managed EF3 strength.
The fatal Monroe County KY tornado was from a supercell – somewhat unusual for the winter months.
Links from NWS Louisville and Paducah about Super Tuesday:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=february5-6,2008outbreak
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=feb0506radarpage
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=monroecountytornadopage
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=Feb508tornadoes
Even Bath and Menifee Counties (within NWS Jackson KY coverage area) were affected by twisters:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=12920&source=2
Thanks, Chris. I do remember the tornadoes and that outbreak. Lets hope that doesn’t happen again. I am glad to hear you say that colder temps are coming though. Hope they get cold enough to do some good in killing out some bugs and viruses!
Pretty scary in Memphis that year. 🙁
Hockey fans enjoy blood and violence. Racing fans enjoy fatal crashes and fires. Pilots enjoy accidents that take dozens of lives. People who watch skiing on television enjoy seeing athletes mess up on their stunts and fall on their heads and die in a hospital later on. People who cross-knit enjoy running needles through their hands. People who go to concerts enjoy seeing the pyrotechnics displays malfunction and start fires that kill dozens of people. Boy Scout troop leaders enjoy seeing their scouts mauled by bears in the wilderness and crippled. Women who enjoy shopping hope that a madman will raid the mall and open fire on innocent people. And meteorologists who enjoy storms and watching nature love to see death and loss of property.
And to think… I learned how life works from reading a weather blog.
HA!! Love it. 🙂
Its about time someone laid it all out like that.
Just because a person likes, and hopes to see, extreme weather doesn’t mean– 1.) you actually create it by liking and hoping for it — and — 2.) that you don’t care about the tragedy that sometimes comes along with it.
Being in the path and hit by a couple of tornados has given me a deep hatred for them… but I don’t condemn people who are in awe of the beauty of their form and power.
Yes, it’s the people who enjoy severe weather that end up studying it and learning from it. These are the very men and women who alert the general public of it’s coming, in hopes of PREVENTING loss of life and property. But in the end, death happens. There is nothing we can do to totally stop it. And telling someone who wishes to see a thunderstorm that they are evil for wanting to see people die is not only stupid, but it also makes no logical sense either. I wish for severe weather every day from January 1 to December 31. Call me sick and twisted if you want. But when conditions appear ripe for an outbreak, there are countless people who thank me for alerting them to it ahead of time.
Maybe someday – likely way after our lifetime – we’ll be able to artificially create an F5 tornado inside Rupp Arena, or within Commonwealth Stadium or Neyland Stadium (sorry Cat fans, I grew up in east TN 😉 ). Tens of thousands of wx fans can watch the twister form and do its thing, even drive 2x4s into concrete, toss and crush old junk cars. Yet, some kind of futuristic force field wall will let the crowd see the demonstration in safety.
Otherwise, no matter how much one enjoys the workings of tornadoes, can’t help but fear for lives during an outbreak. Especially for Jeanette and others that have had near misses with twisters, or had relatives that did likewise. Both my parents were only eight miles or so from the path of the monster Ringgold GA/Apison TN tornado last April 27 (they knew two that lost their lives, casually knew anyway). Kind of makes you numb at first, then one can perhaps appreciate life a little more.
That my friend is HILARIOUS
Not really. It just keeps perpetuating foolish arguing between two sides.
that needs to stop, agreed. If people would dog on us for enjoying extreme weather, then none of this would happen.
*wouldn’t
It’s just the truth. I can’t believe people are so stupid as to say “why do you wish death on others?” What a dumb comment to make. Like I said, do NASCAR fans turn on the TV and say “boy I hope someone dies in a fiery crash today.”? Um, NO. It’s called life people. If you don’t like a good t-storm, why the **** are you on a weather blog?
Hmm, seems like everytime I actually decide to take time to post more than one line it does not show up or shows up after we have moved on to another update by CB.
I’m guessing that the board may automatically allow only so much text space from any one user. This may or may not be like your situation, but the other day one of my longer posts was completely blocked (as opposed to awaiting moderator approval). After several failed attempts, I then shortened the post, tried again, and it went through ok.
For some STRANGE reason I don’t remember this outbreak….Why? I dunno. Perhaps my area didn’t get anything much…..The dates that stick out in my mind are May 2004 and Sept 2006? I think when we had HUGE storms here with inches & inches of rain.
In KY, it was mainly western and south central parts of the state that were hit hardest. I was a college senior, we wearily watched the tv reports that evening but Warren County/Bowling Green pretty much escaped any serious damage and had no loss of life. Muhlenberg County and Monroe County weren’t so fortunate.
Tennessee had the highest death toll of any state.
I’m a sucker. Kids already want to know if they will have school wed or thurs. Put the ball out there Lucy, I’m ready to kick it. 🙂
Okay, so if we were betting on this week, how many of you would bet there would be a snowday and if so would it be wed., thurs., or both? Wxman, mitch, mj as well as others, could you give us your thoughts in terms of probabilities? I guess we also need to keep in mind the ground temps are warm so if it does snow and we have a snow day, it will be for ice on the roads.
Mitch said ecmwf was moister this morning. Hope?
Fingers crossed.
The 12z ECMWF seems to be showing something, but not sure how much. The NAM and GFS show nothing at all. Sorry. I know how you feel, I’m needing a snow day here too.
No worries this week. Little snow will accumulate as ground temps to warm as CB had stated. If storm developes this weekend on the east coast it would need to shift really far to the west for us here in Ky to receive anything from it. Cold and dry after that……No snow for you!!!
As for the destruction concern above from severe weather. You can’t stop mother nature/weather from the destruction it causes. We can however prepare to the best of our abilities to be safe during these storms. Bring on the squall lines and supercells nothing like tracking severe storms rolling across the region. I am ready for SUMMER!!!!
I agree…being a weather lover doesn’t solely mean snow. I lived through an F-5 and the aftermath was devastating. Every year on April 3rd I think of the loss and destruction that occurred BUT I am a weather lover and that includes snow as well as severe weather. I think if you truly love severe weather you are well aware of the damaging effects as well as loss of life. That doesn’t mean that you wish it would happen.
Thanks Janette. Although April 3 1974 was before I was born, good to see Brandenburg has been thriving with a booming population, even if this can’t completely heal the hurt.
The fact that chris hasn’t even tweeted basically means the midweek system isn’t much I’m afraid. But, don’t give up hope.