Good Sunday everyone. We are putting the wraps on a wintry weekend across the bluegrass state with another day of cold temps. A weekend like this has been a long time coming for those who love spending time cuddled in front of the fireplace. It is Valentine’s Weekend, ya know. 😉
Temps today will start frigid with readings near 10 degrees in several areas. Some high single digits will be likely in the traditional cold spots across our region. Partly sunny skies will then boost our temps into the upper 20s and low 30s for highs. This is well below normal for this time of year. I’ve been waiting a while to say that sentence. 🙂
Our next weather maker will quickly move in late Monday into Tuesday. This will bring light snow and a mix during this time and it could cause some issues for the Tuesday Morning commute. The temp profile with this next system suggests light snow to start Monday night with snow north and a mix south by Tuesday Morning with a mix and light rain by Tuesday afternoon.
You can get the sense of what I’m talking about here on the GFS…
Wednesday will find our region in between storms with the next one arriving Thursday. This one looks to cut right across the Ohio Valley and should primarily be a rain maker…
That will probably end up being a strong system than the GFS is showing and it may be able carve out a nice little trough behind it by Friday…
That cold air may also be able to produce some wraparound snows if our storm is a bit stronger. If not… some snow showers and flurries would be possible.
A third storm continues to show up on the models for the end of next weekend into early the following week. The Canadian Model is teasing you with this one…
Have a great Sunday and take care.
Saturday I over estimated snow accums I observed in Danville and Harrodsburg. It was closer to less than a half inch. My own yard was just frosty. Watching Mon/Tue…I am on board with there being a good precip shield of mostly snow and mix for central Ky. The up side is the ground initially will be colder than this last round. The downside is SREF keeps surface above freezing thru entire event except for right along the Ohio River. SREF in my view has been pretty reliable.
So, for central Ky. maybe a quick small accum Monday night. There is still hope in this one, just not a lot.
The system could’ve done much better for itself if our ground temperatures hadn’t been as high I think….at least we can say we saw a tiny bit of snow. Where does this month seem to go from here as far as temperatures and precipitation chances?
YEAH, more rain,,I can’t wait, I’m so excited, We need rain so bad.
Scarasm
I keep holding out hope for a winter storm, but I guess, honestly, I probably will give up! BUT, I DO appreciate Chris and his blog, and I will continue to read every morning as I have my coffee! Going to enjoy the sunshine today! Was hoping that rain/snow line would drop farther south for Monday, but it looks instead like it has gone north! Everyone have a blessed Sunday!
I just wish it would dry up. Seems like every weekend has been either rain or cold. All the nice days seem to be happening during the middle of the week. Can’t wait for the cycle to end. I remember one year while in college that it rained every weekend during April and May. Hopefully that’s not the case this year.
Average temps for Southern Kentucky move to 50 degrees this week. Old man winter better get here fast if any snow is going to stick around.
12z nam looks better for a lot of folks, particularly western, northern, and central kentucky!
The GFS run is better than the Nam if you want snow. Which model will end up being more correct probably the Nam. Always bet on the liquid side here in Ky.
A more promising look of SREF at 4am run. It comes in a little colder dropping the surface 32 line roughly along and north of 64 and for the eastern most 2 tiers of counties. If this trend continues today things could get real interesting Monday night.
Maybe, what usually happens is that we have the white snow carpet pulled from underneath our boots.
10am SREF..Has not changed a lot but its gonna be close so I would expect some type of advisory to be placed for much of Ky. for Monday night.
Does anybody besides w.ky have a chance to receive more than an inch.
Starting to look like another miss for Kentucky. Of course, a few inches of possible snow wasn’t a big deal in the first place but pretty much qualifies as a “blizzard” this sad winter season!
If we aren’t going to have a winter, I’d just as soon get on with it and go into a long spring.
Winter storm watch for western tenn, 2to3 in. of snow then Ice on top. Funny how it turns lighter and warmer as it heads into KY! Snow gods do not like this area?? CKY
Yeah I was reading the same thing as well. Dyersburg Tn forecast is for 100 percent heavy snow monday. Winter storm watch for. All of NW tn. Along the ky/tn border. Most of the midwest is under a winter weather advisory for snow/ice. Then it gets to ky and ,and. Drum roll please!!!!! It runs outta gas !!!LOL
It is the fence (some call dome) I have been harping about for nearly eight years. Folks panned me in the past, but now get it, after the results (or lack of).
well its sunny out.
Funny enough, the NWS has already issued a weather statement. Unusual to have them making these type of predictions before we hear much from Chris. Hmmm…..
Only time will tell (but I’m sure not holding my breath). 😉
.. WINTRY WEATHER LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY…
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM HEADS INTO OUR REGION… WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM… THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY EVENING. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING… SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE SNOW CHANGING OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN… SLEET AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS THIS TIME… THE BEST CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BEAVER DAM KENTUCKY TO NEAR BEREA KENTUCKY. NORTH OF THAT LINE… COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE FREEZING MARK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING… SO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE… MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME… AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES… ANTECEDENT ROAD CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL ALL PLAY IN ROLE IN HOW NEGATIVELY IMPACTED THINGS COULD BECOME.
This morning, NWS Paducah gave a 100% chance of snow for Monday night. Their initial discussion this morning even said they may issue either a Watch, Warning, or Advisory. Now, they are still giving a 100% chance of snow, but it has changed to include a mix of sleet with it all turning to rain by Tuesday. At this rate, it’ll be all rain.
Quick learner 🙂
Hahahaha..Thanks BubbaG. It takes me a while, but I get there 🙂
Can folks in the media and bloggers stop with the term “Wintry”. It is already winter. Perhaps a better way to word is “The spring-like weather has taken a break for a few days”.
I wonder if the area will finally bust the 3″ barrier for snow after this week? If we count the salt, we already did 😉
Well, Lexington KY anyway got .6 inch on Sat, is now up to 2.3 for season, just enough for 1931-32 to remain the least snowiest winter.
Even Memphis TN is forecasting an inch of snow Mon, but as others have touched on, this perhaps means just a trace, or icing 🙁 . The worst freezing rain forecast I see so so far is for west-central Arkansas to get up to .2 of an inch of ice; even if not enough to effect power lines and tree limbs too much, they can still keep it!
METS are sleeping on this one. I take the dogs out every evening aat 10 pm. I rarely wear footwear. Both the dogs and I were physically aware of the cold ground. I live in Louisville and cannot speak for areas other than my ecosystem. This latest cold blast will deter warm moisture for a tad. May not be alot but bring on the snow day for kids of all ages on Tuesday. Sled baby, sled!
Absolutely! I’m stealing that call- ” Sled baby, sled!”
Thought we have a update by now, oh well, it tells me Chris is busy, don’t really know what it well do Monday night, or most likely……….little snow more rain!
I just want one more snow day in February–well, ONE snow day in February. lol Then bring on spring and sunshine. Spring break isn’t too far in the future!
A menacing snow beast lurks to our west. The other mets say it comes to Kentucky to die….hope not! What does Chris say?