Good Monday to one and all. We are coming off a wintry weekend across the bluegrass state and we have another shot of winter moving in tonight and early Tuesday. This may have an impact on travel conditions for the Tuesday morning commute.
Temps today will only reach the mid and upper 30s with an increase in clouds. Light snow will break out across western Kentucky by early evening and will slowly work eastward into the overnight hours. There isn’t a ton of juice with this system, but it should be able to put down some light accumulation. Here’s a look at the areas most at risk for up to an inch of snow…
It’s the timing of all this that may actually cause some problems for Tuesday morning travelers. Some delays or cancellations are certainly possible.
Thermometers will slowly spike up into the mid and upper 30s by Tuesday afternoon with light snow becoming more of a rain/snow mix of plain rain. You can see this on the GFS forecast…
That’s not the best Valentine’s Day weather forecast we’ve ever seen.
Wednesday looks good with temps in the 40s for highs under partly sunny skies. Another fast-moving storm will bring widespread rain to the region on Thursday. Would a rumble of thunder surprise you? Nah… me either.
Much colder air then works in by Friday as we go back into a pattern conducive for wintry weather. This may carry us through most of next week and I’m starting to wonder if all of this is leading up to a big bang for the closing weeks of winter. Time will tell.
Have a great Monday and check back for updates. Take care.
Small chance for accumulation…no surprise! If it is “bad” for the morning commute and there are school cancellations, this would be local florists’ worst nightmare for Valentine’s Day.
Thank you Chris for the update. I sure missed one yesterday.
This was issued by NWS Paducah:
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY.
* TIMING: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
* MAIN IMPACT: TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED.
PERSONS PLANNING TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS.
Still, not going to amount to much, but the travel impact is there.
Sorry if this is a repeat post (first one did not seem to register). Is the system showing up on radar in Western Ky the one that may cause travel to be impacted in Central Ky this eve? Seems it may be here earlier than that based on radar….unless there in another one coming later. This may be obvious to most of you, but I am still learning. Following the blog for three years but still am trying to figure out KY weather. Actually, I may never figure it out. Thanks Chris, as always!
Wow, I64 is the fence again. Who would have thunk’ it?? 😉
If not I64, it is I75- the fence knows no axis- just Kentucky.
Awesome comment- the fence knows no axis!
Well if your on the fence that means you at least have a chance 😉
We’ve heard the word “impact” used around here from time to time, and that’s exactly what this system is. It’s not going to be a big snow maker, and it’s not going to last very long either. But the timing of it means it will be a big impact to travel tomorrow morning and that’s why the word needs to be spread about this.
Remember that first snow we got in January? NWS issued a WWA after there had already been dozens of crashes statewide and the snow had started to wind down. Looks like that’s how this is going to be… they’re going to wait until the KSP get so covered up in car accidents that they don’t even know what hit them, THEN they’ll put out a WWA based upon “impact”. Sigh…
At least the folks who read the ‘Net know that it’s going to be slippery around here tomorrow morning. Allow more time to get to work and be careful.
Look for them to do something different.
I don’t think so. Looking at the recent data, and I am no professional by all means, look for the Advisory to shift eastward to include Louisville to Frankfort at least. Lexington will have impacts as well. Remember, the Louisville NWS office includes these areas in their CWA. They won’t drop the ball.
You would think the winter weather has a GFS. The way it pinpoints the I-64 and I-75 roads!
I will tell you , Of course I’m a big fan of this blog, read it everyday(more than once for sure during the winter)..But Chris, you are good, real good.. We are all getting pumped for a “chance” of upto 1 inch, and then slip in its will be rain the next one, and then Maybe, maybe, maybe a big band to close it out…Thats good, keep us coming back for more..
BORING! LOL! Hope everyone has a great Monday!!
Why are all the mountain counties off school today? Did they get snow last night?
Pretty sure it was from the snow on Friday night.
Leslie County picked up around 3 inches total from Friday night, and then more saturday evening. Majority of side roads, northern sides of mountain, are still snow and ice covered. Where the sun doesn’t shine, temps are still well below freezing.
I live in Leslie County also. I’m sure that some of the side roads may be slick but all of the roads that I saw this morning were fine. Also I live up in a “holler” and my road did not have anything on it. I feel that we could have had school today but I am glad that I do not have to make those decisions and it is always better safe than sorry. Leslie County done pretty good with close to 3″ near my home also. I like the fact that there is somebody else from LC on here.
Well, the modeling run after run had been showing temps. in the upper-20s at lunchtime today in central KY. Actual surface obs. are running in the low-30s. So the modeling we’ve been watching so far was too cold with surface temps. Not a good sign as we head into tonight…
Meaning?
So Wxman, do you think most of central and eastern ky. will be above freezing by the time this stuff gets here? thanks
Well, the modeling showed our surface temps. being borderline already for snow accumulation in the LEX area. Now, with the models being too cold, it looks like what we will actually see is more above freezing surface air farther north. So I’m thinking that northern KY is the only place where you’ll find a good shot at accumulating snow. For the LEX area, just an aesthetic snow. And for the southern KY counties a rainy mix.
It’s odd. I’d have guessed the modeling to be too warm if it goofed up, not too cold. Strange..
Makes sense. Above freezing now and temps tend to spike a tad with moisture moving in. The snow theory works if below freezing and enough spread to handle the spike (not go above freezing).
Midnight is when the stuff is suppsoed to start- I think.
What about areas just north of 64 like Paris, Georgetown, etc?
I get the feeling Chris has his eye on something next week, just does not want to mention it due to the track record we have had a week out. Maybe we will see one decent snow before all hope is lost. but the clock is ticking..
tic-toc
tic-toc
thats funny!!!!!!!!! R U serious, I’m sorry, but I even mentioned earlier…Sorry Chris, think you do a great job, but this year, it has been a constant..NEXT WEEK THING! Its funny, String and Carrot routine! Maybe its not chris doing it, but its the models and we and Chris has to look at the carrot week in and week out and say…interesting next week lookssssnnnnooooowwwwwccccoollllddddddd..it hasn’t yet. Again, week in and week out, so, it doesnt suprise me to see a post with the very end again saying, next week could end winter with a bang,,
The poster is “ohioSPIN” 😉 This whole winter has been that way and based on the reduction in posts, most folks that looked here for chances of a good snow have caught on to the trend and do not bother to post with hopes. They already know the likely answer.
The models this year have been about as smart as people models- mainly not too much.
it’s all part of the mourning process, you know, DENIAL!
this winter can not suck this bad!
Next week it is going to happen!
March is my cut off, after that no denial, until then I will continue to blindly put my hopes on next week!
Dewpoints are still low, so IF this precip makes it to Central KY the temps should drop below freezing most of the night I64 North. Verga storm looks like a possibility over Central KY?? SURPRISE!
the gfs shows a big rain maker around the 27th. Maybe the cold flexs it’s muscle one last time and we get an old school snow. I’ll pin my hopes on that time frame, if nothing pans out I will finally write this winter off and be ready for spring. Until then, I’m holding out!!
If you are in Ohio, I would say you do have a decent shot for a good snow then.
i’m in southeast ohio, our weather tends to follow central or north central kentucky, The fence seems to run on a bit of a northeast slant, usually leaving me in the same boat as kentucky. Maybe tonight will be different and I will see enough for the kids to at least get a snow day, but the sole skimmers don’t do much for me, I want a shut things down kinda snow. I know, good luck with that this year!
Anyone notice how the precip currently coming out of WKY disapates as it closes in on I65. As Todd said above the low dewpoints are going to eat up most of the precip. before it even reaches the ground. I am ready for Summer and 90 degree weather. We have had a week of winter this Spring and I don’t see anything in the coming weeks, except rain, to get excited about.
Bring on Summer as I am through thinking about snow!!!!
your just like me, if we see a chance in the future, we will get exicted, and can’t let it go until we get to the middle of march.
Feelin u brother
every weather predicting center has a different forecast, no one will know unitl this one is over. Could be a wash out or a significant ice/snow event. No way to tell.
Kentucky IS the fence
Seems like the eastern half of the US has not gotten anywhere near their normal snowfall so i guess I shouldnt feel so bad. When Kentucky does get it’s piddly amounts I64 and I75 have always been the fence. This is where the central ky dome theory originated. A trend working into it’s 2nd decade and still going strong.
The blue line on the map below shows the approximate 32* wet bulb as of 1:30pm. Areas north have best chance of some accum tonight. Areas south unlikely.
Map link http://img.thoughts.com/3fnb9v500ho2juc.jpg
Wow, we can’t even get a 1″ snow this year along the Ohio River. Too warm it rains. Gets cold and we get virga. Bring on the warm weather if snow isn’t possible!!!
Interesting run of the Euro for the 19th …not excited yet but something to keep an eye on..Go west…
sorry again, but Funny! Its funny
Isnt that a week away!!!!!!! , theme, theme, theme, theme..
40 degrees, DewPoint of 18 degrees with a 41% humidity @ 3:42 PM EST. Not looking good for anything but rain here. Hope I’m wrong.
18z nam is terrible. Virga city.
I won’t say that the NWS Louisville is dropping the ball, but I think it was not wise to shift the advisory ‘slightly east’ and not include areas like Louisville and Frankfort in the WWAdvisory. Timing and impacts could still be realized. School kids? Rush hour? Main roads should be okay but getting to and from there? Too many variables that may turn negative. Wet-bulbing, surface temperatures, timing of changeover…I don’t know.