Good Wednesday, everyone. We have made it to the middle of the week and we are actually seeing some decent weather for a few hours today. That won’t last long as a storm system brings showers back in here later tonight and Thursday. While that is the focus of the near term forecast. I have my eye on the weekend and the potential for wintry weather.
The first system will send some clouds our way today as temps hit the upper 40s and low 50s. Showers will then break out tonight and carry us into Thursday. This is a fast mover, so we should see some a little late day clearing with temps in the 50s for highs. Winds should also be gusty.
A seasonal chill blows in for Friday with near normal temps and a good amount of sunshine.
That brings us to the weekend and the increasing potential for a southern storm to track into the Carolinas late Saturday into Sunday. The exact track and evolution of this system will be crucial in determining what we get around here. The setup and forecast track from the models is usually one that brings accumulating snow to the region. Take a look at the latest track from the various models…
GFS
GFS Ensembles
Canadian
Can this system become the first “Threat” of the season? The seasonal trend says no. The track suggests it is certainly something for us to watch and I will be doing just that and have updates as needed. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
Rain to snow never works out, plus the trend says no.
Unless there is a heavier snow event to offset the warm ground and the fact that Kentucky is the fence for 100% of the regional systems, seems I must agree.
Still, somebody to our north, south. east or west has a good shot 😉 The I64 / I75 fence is an axis of evil for snow fans.
Well it gives us something to track. Would be nice , though.
Lets watch this weekends clouds roll in. Can we get a weekend with some sun and moderate temps. Give it up it is not going to snow this winter. We might get a snowfall during the spring. This winters title should be Watching an Active Rain Pattern.
CB, I never thought I would ever say this, but you are beginning to “sound” like me in your posts 😉
Not sure that is a good thing- so STOP! 😉
True though, since if we regress with the trend of actual results, it kind of puts the models in perspective. Anyhoo, no ice and I am happy with winter, since must grasp on to some positive.
CB a Bubba convert. Lord help us. 😉
Agreed!
gosh even if we get lucky and a foot of snow fell on Sunday, it would all be gone by noon Monday — forecast is 55 degrees for Somerset on Monday, so is it worth getting hyped over something that won’t last one day?
Child – Please…. I’m tellin ya right now about the “chance” for sat. night sunday…If it does push north-40 and rain! hold a “ok” sign up with your right hand, place it over your eye (doran lamb style)..Its good, count it!!!
No snow for us..Done deal! I don’t have to be a meterologist to know what will happen. Trend baby, thats all it is
We need a slogan:
Don’t trend on me
haha!! don’t trend on me. LOL!
Everything I am watching is showing 50″s for Sun. Mon. & Tue. for south central KY I hope their wrong and Chris is right.
Despite all of your comments, I’m still holding out a little hope! I’ts not over yet!
WoW!!! Have you guys sat back a read your post ? have alittle faith that one of these systems might just work out . Ive lived in kentucky long enough to say I dont care what the “seasonal trend ” is ……if you live in ky then the weather can change from one extreme to the next in a matter of hours. Dont be so depressing guys !
Chris
I`m a Louisville transplant, now living just west of Charlotte North Carolina. Do you think we will get snow from the Sunday, Monday system???
Obviously Chris is right and this bears watching. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
I am leaning toward the next few runs taking that low farther south, which would kill precip. chances here. 06Z run already started that trend.. and I bet the 12Z continues it. But it’s definitely a possibility that it could spread some snow closeby.
the 12z run blasts the region pretty good with snow. Old fashioned model madness is on! I would still favor the region not seeing mcuh though.
shoule restate- rain to a period of wet snow.
the 12z has already brought it back further north than it was yesterday and has it wetter here in our little world. a lot of central and eky and western wva would get a thumping from this on sunday followed by the deep freeze sunday night and monday.
folks this storm bears watching more than any storm at all this year due to the pattern that we are in.
12Z run of which model?? GFS doesn’t show this. Are we talking EURO, Canadian?
See Chris’s tweet
Well, the 12Z GFS does bring more precip. into the region than the 06Z run did. However, surface temps. are still shown as upper 40s on Saturday afternoon and low 40s Saturday night, so there wouldn’t be any snowflakes to speak of under that scenario.
See, that’s the fine line.. if you go north (more precip) then you spread the warm air north too. And if you go south to get the cold air more established, then you pull the forcing from the low away, so less precip. We’re darned if we do, and darned if we don’t here in KY.
My bet the seasonal trend will win out again. This year it doesn’t seem to matter where the freezing line is on those models in relation to the moisture. It always ends up being rain here and snows all around us. Or the radar will look like a good snow is coming and all it is is virga.
every single weather station in Lou. Metro has the area being High in the upper 40’s & low 50’s all weekend long. Are they not paying attention to ANY of the models? Don’t all of them have Kentucky in the 30’s? I’m all for tracking this storm. But, what is the point if it’s only rain (not snow).
well im agreeing with MITCH and WXMAN at THIS TIME, but I want to seetonite runs.
that said this type low is were u want it then turn NE that OLD SCHOOL.
SUPRISE is what we need.
If anything significant actually panned out, it would be nothing but a surprise 😉
It only takes one storm to break the pattern, i.e. 1998. I don’t think we’ve seen a storm take the southern route all winter so anything is game. Really liking the setup though; it has a nice, dare I say it, old school look to it.
I love the 12z GFS Ensembles…but considering our luck this year…the Canadian/ECMWF win out and we are left with basically nothing. Anyone else agree out there? The only run I’m truly abiding by now is the 12z ‘I believe it when I see it’ run…
I remember when searching this website was fun. There were multiple updates during the day and winter weather was abound. No chance this weekend storm produces any major snow for Somerset area. Not this year.
Let’s play the what if scenario. What if we get a decent snow Saturday night with this system taking the perfect tract for that to occur, how does that affect temperatures for Sunday and Monday? Wxman, Mitch, Mj, Chris or anyone else who knows a lot about weather, what are your thoughts on this? Thanks!
If a snow were to occur Saturday night, then temperatures on Sunday and possibly into Monday would be cooler. This is because the warming that would have occurred would have gone instead to melting snow instead of raising the air temperature. However, I do not think the GFS…nor its ensembles are correct in their solutions. The GFS track jumped significantly NW last night and none of the other model guidance had significant jumps. Based on this winter and the overall upper level pattern, I think some separation will remain between the waves and this thing will slide to our south and east. Of course, I could be wrong but I hope that some forecast convergence will appear later tonight or tomorrow.
Thanks! When you said south and east that reminded me of a period a couple of years back when we were under a winter storm warning and got nothing but rain because thunderstorms to our south robbed almost all the moisture.
I remember that setup! It is just so hard to get that perfect setup for Kentucky to get blasted with snow! On another note….the new 18z NAM is playing with us & saying look out Kentucky!
You can add the 18z GFS to the snowstorm party!!
12z UKMET did trend north as well and the JMA is even further west than the GFS. Though EC is still to far south.