Good evening, gang. Showers continue to increase across the bluegrass state this evening and that trend carries us into the overnight. This is a fast-moving system that should be done with us by the time we roll into Thursday afternoon.
The main focus of this update is to monitor a possible storm for the weekend. This is one of the few southern storms we have had to keep an eye on this winter and the models suggest this has a shot at becoming a big event from the Ohio Valley into the northeast. Doesn’t mean it will work out that way… but the pattern suggests this one has more than a fighting chance.
The GFS model continues to be the most aggressive with this bad boy…
A storm track from Alabama to Virginia is one that usually delivers accumulating snow around here. I would like to see a stronger high pressure to the north of this system, but there is a lot of time for the models to jump around with things.
The clear trend on the GFS is for a much stronger storm that rides up the east coast. A few other models are in a similar camp and the GFS Ensembles mean has something similar…
There are some models that have a much flatter look and keep this storm just to our south. Nothing is set in stone, but this one is looking very interesting to say the least.
Keep an eye on this one!
Enjoy your evening and take care.
Crossing my fingers as hard as they can be crossed Chris for this one! This is the one of the few times that I am rooting for the GFS!!!!
Would this be a mainly south/southeastern KY storm or does western Kentucky have a chance, IF, it were to occur? Any input is appreciated. As always, thanks Chris for all you do!!
I would like to know the same thing!
That track has me going, that is a phenomenal track, and is the best we’ve seen consistently all winter. Just one, please Lord, please.
While it may be a great track, the lower atmosphere is still too warm to support a full snow event. Simply taken as is, that solution would be a rain to snow event with the precipitation exiting the region just as the colder air gets here. Hmmm…sounds like this winter. Hence, Chris’s suggestion of a stronger high to the north would help us out. Again, I don’t think the GFS is correct in its forecast with things aloft. Perhaps something closer to the combo of the GFS ensemble and Euro looks more meteorologically correct with the current data.
This seems similar to the Dec 19-20, 2009 storm except warmer.
Agreed. About 90% of the moisture for most of Kentucky will probably be rain and the tail end a little snow. Same MO as the last 14 years for systems like this- plus this one has warmer air along with it (more than usual).
Getting hopes up on this one will be like doing it for a Powerball ticket, that is won by a person in West Virginia (they would get the snow too).
I feel bad posting this, since some seem to be getting their hopes up. Hey, what do I know? Not much 🙂
don’t feel bad. you are a realist. you and i sit in the dead zone. we have the super dome above us.
don’t get your hopes up folks. history, this winter’s trend, and rain to snow senarios are not on our side.
I see snowpeople…..
I believe you also said it would rain on the backside when a blast of artic air came rolling thru ky..Believe Eastern ky got about 2 inches then..LOL…If you live in eastern ky don’t give up hope yet….Don’t listen to the nay sayers..Let the debbie downers stay on there side of the fence or that magicial 50 50 line or whatever some call it..It may not snow a flake but at least we got something to watch..
Nope, I was referring to central Kentucky on the last one (usually do) and mentioned the east and north had a shot of the mini system prior to that.
Every system that with this flow and is not a clipper has performed this way for 14 years. Not an exaggeration. 33/32 rule has held firm and has only let up to give us ice.
With the storm exploding like it does, you cannot rule out dynamic cooling. Not doubt that this is a system to watch.
Also, the GFS is WAY to warm. NAM for approximately same time frame has the freezing line way further south, with the low in the same position.
I just wish we could hope for our snow without some one saying its not goin to happen Chris hopefully it will work out…….
Me too Marsha!
i agree, every one is so negative on here any more. heck i think if it was 10 below zero some one would try to study up a way for a snow storm to completely miss us. just remember 1 thing it does not have to be below freezing to get a good snow fall.
You call it being negative. It’s actually seeing history for what it is until proven otherwise, aka realism.
Okay I am going to fabricate a snowstorm for next Tuesday. I think it is going to happen. Does anybody else have any takes on how many inches we are going to receive.
Hoping will not make it happen on Sunday, it is up to mother earth. People should be allowed to make a quasi-education guess on what they think will become of the event. That what makes this site interesting. I like to listen to all opinions pro or con.
This seems awesome….I’m on board the Snow Hope Express! Punch my ticket and let the models roll….
I am still apprehensive. Too many hurdles to overcome.
the gfs is usually the 1 that is the very last to come aboard and usualyy the forecast will go with the gfs at the last minute and now the gfs has been all over this 1 since monday and instead of getting weaker it has the storm actually getting stronger. has any one noticed the isobars, the way the storm is wrapping up as it plows through virginia on sunday? presidents day weekends are notorious for big snow storms in the eastern half of the country and this 1 may be no exception.
Its only 3 days out so that has to count for something……I’m clearly not putting all of my faith in the models this year but this seems to be somewhat consistent….seasonal trends are keeping me apprehensive but hopeful!
The GFS is way too warm, IMO. With a storm strengthening like the GFS shows it, first of all dynamic cooling would occur, secondly, it would most likely wrap the cold air into it. No way the GFS is even remotely close to being accurate on the temps.
I have given up hope for seeing any great snow for this year. Maybe next year the snow dome will break in a million pieces! 🙂