Good Thursday to all my fellow weather lovers. Our day is off and running on a soggy note across the bluegrass state as a weak system works through. My attention continues to be more focused on what’s ahead for the weekend as we have a developing storm to contend with. This has the potential to become the first “winter storm threat” of the season.
Let’s start with what we have going on out there today. Showers will be rather common into the early afternoon hours… especially across the central and east. These rains will slowly diminish and we may try to break out into a partly cloudy sky before the day is over. Temps should range from the low to mid 50s. Don’t forget the radars and current conditions pages up top.
Friday looks to be a good day with temps in the upper 40s and low 50s with partly sunny skies. Don’t be fooled by this nice looking start to the weekend because things may turn wintry in a hurry by Saturday night and Sunday.
We have been talking about a potential weekend storm for several days now and all the models are falling in line with a similar solution. That is for a storm to develop across the deep south and lift northeastward into the Carolinas by Sunday. That is usually a great track for getting a decent snowfall around our part of the world.
The GFS has been very steady with this track for the past few days. Here’s the latest run…
Taken verbatim… that’s rain Saturday evening with a rapid switch to heavy, wet snow Saturday night into Sunday. The GFS Ensembles mean agrees…
The Canadian Model had been showing this storm missing us to the south. That is no longer the case for Saturday evening into Sunday morning…
This is a setup for us to continue to keep a very close eye on. Don’t get caught up on looking at the rain verses snow maps or the thermal profile because the models won’t catch up to all that until Friday or Saturday.
I will have updates as needed, so check back to see if we have the first upgrade of the winter. Have a great Thursday and take care.
euro has trended a lot further north. all of Kentucky would get snow. Eastern kentucky would get hammered. chris would you be surprised if it cont a jog northward?
sounds good. hope it works out like that
Thanks Chris. From what I understand, as the time gets closer….don’t these tracks usually shift a little west? If so, wouldn’t that bring even more snow than the current model runs suggest? I don’t want West Ky or Central KY to miss out. This is so exciting! I can’t imagine how many times a day I will be checking for updates. Here I go again, getting all excited…please winter, don’t rain on our parade again.
Some school children are going to be disappointed! Already off on Monday for a holiday! Boo!
Bet you’re sweating blood over this threat lol…..this year has been unpredictable at best and you’ve done the best you could given the circumstances. I’m hoping you’re right and we see one last snow and be done with it for the year. As strange as it sounds, I’m ready for spring and ballpark weather 🙂
CB Thanks! I just don’t see this storm materializing for us. The KY snow dome, especially here in the Lou. Metro through central Ky will take effect. I can see the KY/TN boarder and EKY getting in on some of the action, but not the whole state. I like how the two models you have selected look at this point in time, but three days out is not right now and we all know they will change. We are way overdue (Lou) and I just don’t see this low coming far enough to the west to give us any substantial snow fall, if any. This will get even more interesting with lots of hype as the week wears on. Only to be a Debbie downer. Sorry but I just can’t get into this winter!!!!
Thinking of Summer and 90’s….
Shhhhh don’t use the S.D. word… LOL
Looks like this one will be more of EKY than the BG area………right?
I’m beginning to think that those of us in Western KY are gonna miss out 🙁 Hope I’m wrong!! Any input is appreciated 🙂
If it goes tha fat west then i think eastern ky will see mostly if not all rain
We are just right on the edge, Lisa, I guess 🙁
accumulations are most likely from BG into east ky with the highest accumulations of the mountains of southeast KY. So southern and eastern KY.
Thanks, Mitch! BG is always too far west to get much (unless we are talking about last year….haha!)!
As always, we must remember that surface temperatures will be warmer than what these 850mb charts show. So it’s very borderline as it looks right now, and a lot of this would be rain or rain/snow mix as it’s shown right now.
Having said that, dynamic cooling is always the wildcard with systems such as this one. And, as Chris noted we are still waiting on this storm to get onto the playing field. So I guess the moral of the story is.. we still don’t know what’s going to happen! *fingers crossed for a blizzard*
Seems that were it not for the trend this winter, CB would already be more on this potential event. CB is being very cautious. Smart move.
yea you r right about the temps but 1 thing we must remember is it does not have to be 32 degrees for snow to stick. i have seen a foot or more fall in 35 degrees. every one keeps talking about the temp profile upstairs but if it snows hard enough and according to the models it will be a heavy rain event over to a very heavy wet snow event, it can stick. down side to all of it would be power outages galore.
i am sensing a winter storm threat later today if models are still honing in on this. i do think the gfs made a correction last night to the south some what because yesterday it had the storm going way to far north. the euro did correct it self over night and it now has the storm coming further north than right out to sea.
SPOT ON TONy
Once again as I have noted a few times on the blog, this is now taking the shape as the March 1993 storm. Coming in from the south, riding the Carolina’s, and because the winter was how it was..many was talking rain when in fact a BLIZZARD of historic proportions slammed SE and Eastern Kentucky. Personally, I have seen temps in the 60’s and 70’s and end having up having major snowfall. It is not all about how warm the ground is but how fast snow falls to begin with. IF this becomes a snow storm and the snow falls at a fast rate per hour, the ground will cover with little melting taking effect. How could Corbin, Ky pick up 30″ of snow in March when the ground is so warm? Because of the rate per hour of the snowfall. THINK SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The differecne being the mets were calling for a blizzard several days ahead of the event and the air was colder.
I can see maybe east & NE Kentucky geting some heavy wet snow, but not even going to guess on how much. IMO, too much warm air and when the cold air grabs hold, most of the action will be heading on a NE path. Need more info to suggest colder air will be part of the mix.
CB did say some models will not catch up with correct thermal info until Friday or Saturday, so hope is still within reason.
My spellin’ aint so gooood.
You make an excellent point, but the models seem way overdone on temps, and with strengthening storms like this, dynamic cooling is a big factor as well. Think snow!!!!
first I been saying we would see a storm around this time period,
2nd WXMAN is correct about temops and such, BUT some of the biggest snows IVE EVER SEEN here u had above freezing temps. hence HEAVY WET SNOW that falls so hard it HAS TO LAY.
now as far as the storm goes, im afraid that the NW trend could bite us hard in EASTERN KY and give LEX NORTH sum snow.
I think it a wait see till evening and maybe morning runs tomm for any excitment.
but it just cool to even see a SOUTHERN STORTM in a winter that has sucked. becausae us hardcore and old enough to rememer wx freaks know that WERE DREAMS ARE MADE.
now im not saying a MONSTER cause everything points against it, but a REAL WSW is going to hit somewhere in KY.
but like ive said when many give UP!! the ole BIGEM can bite u in the rear.
lets stay tuned!!!!!!
Maybe this does not happen at all but I will say that at least one of the Lex meteorologist on the 11:00pm news mention the possibility of this last night and that it bears watching and also check out the forecast discussion on the NWS site. It seems like there are at least others giving this some additional credence. If it does develop remember CB was the first to start discussing this possibility.
LMK this AM:
…winter storm threat Inceasing for portions of the Ohio valley saturday night into Sunday…
I haven’t seem LMK be this unconservaive in a while. BOTS
Yeah, but later they keep it real.
“Thermal profiles
with this system are still in question. However, the general
consensus is that the lower-levels of the atmosphere will remain
significantly warm on Saturday and Saturday night for the initial
precipitation to fall in the form of rain. As the system heads into
the Carolinas, colder air will work in from the north resulting in a
quick change over to wet snow late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning. Depending on how much cold air works in and the eventual
track of the system, some snow accumulation will be possible over
parts of the region. “
Fwiw Euro caved to the Gfs on last nights run..On the GFS Looks like more energy feeding in from the northern stream..This thing may become a monster for someone if it slows down..Still up in the air as far as ky..Sure looks iffy though..May have too make a trip to WV to actually see a decent snow this year..
If this were to pan out, WV and VA would have the best shot and parts of E KY getting something (not sure what).
My crystal ball shows one of them sharp cut-offs somewhere east of I75 (yes, that is vague). My error tolerance is anywhere from all of KY to not at all 😉
I like the word Possibility…Kinda of like “Next week there is a storm to watch”. Rolo is correct by stating that this is a dream setup with a storm coming out of the south. Over the past several years these storms have been know to jog to the NW and put down some pretty good snow totals for parts of KY. I still think the Lou. Area will miss out unless the cold air arrives on Sat. and the low tracks up the west side of the Apps.(Talk about Dreaming) as for now best shot at sig. snow would be South and SE KY. I can see 8-12 for those of you on the WVA/KY Border. This will be one to watch, but don’t get your hopes up to soon as it could be a big bust for the entire state.
Well, Weatherbug has changed the forecast on Sunday to 50% chance of frozen mix..high of 43. Maybe that’s a start.
Wow!!! Look at the 12z NAM. 6-12 inches for southeastern kentucky
http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/3274/usaasnowi24sfc084n.gif
And for folks further west……… GO Cats! 😉
…and a big goose egg for Louisville..sigh…
The 12z nam is coming around to a snow lovers dream. I bet Chris goes into threat mode later this evening if the 18z runs confirm this. May be getting my hopes up to soon, but I say “bring it on”!
If we do not see a shifting trend west, it is iffy, even for a lot of east KY. Need more of KY to be in the presumed path, else more chance for letdown city.
I still think warm air will crash the party for this area and a more easterly event for big snow (if pans out), but again, I aint’ no met-by any stretch and the trend does not help.
With no strong HP in the great lakes region and no blocking this could stay further south and go out to sea..I believe some of the models were still showing this..Still believe if it snows will be a quick hit..Just nothing to slow it down..Would be nice to see it go up the carolina’s an bomb out..Hurricane blizzard..lol
I was talking to a guy earlier from Jackson and a Winter Storm Watch *may* be issued with this evenings forecast package, depending on how the model runs look.
Looky what I just saw http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/watching-east-coast-weekend_2012-02-14
Is there any chance that this storm jogs a little to the west & north! I like to see all of Ky get into the action.
Of course there’s a chance..Models are not set in stone yet of the exact track..Tomorrow models should know more..
I tell yea I got over under on blog hits now thru MONDAY 2 million.
but no jumping all in as I wait till tomm morn before I go all in. but somebody in KY looking good for a SNOW. SE KY in sweet spot as opf now.
u got all TV mets in area talking bout it, also saying will no by tomm what exactly going to happen.
when do the next models come out?
It is normally a given that the models take a N to NW jog immediately before the potential storm hits but this year is far from a conventional year here in KY. I’m not getting my hopes up until tomorrow and possibly until I see snow because rain to snow events in Ky disappoint more than they deliver…..it seems like this winter has hardened my hopefulness for winter weather but we shall see……think snow and THREAT!!
the new gfs at 12z is fresh off the press and it is showing most of ky and wva with a colder and a very wet look. folks this is going to be a 12 hour very heavy wet snow with power outages becoming very likely. i sense a “THREAT MODE” with the next update and possibly a winter storm alert coming on friday.
man i hope you’re right..Would love to try out my new generator thats been collecting dust for 3 years..Just love the sound of limbs and trees splitting and cracking with the sparks of blue,red,orange in the distance as another transformer bites the dust…
BOTS!!! just move abt 50-75 miles further northward.
Feel it, the exciment building, potential is VERY REAL AND BIG!!!!!!!!!!!
FEEL IT, THIS WILL BE IT BABY, THE ONly problem is that what we will be feeling is a BIG disappointment!!!!!!!
Prove me wrong weather, I would love to be wrong
chris just tweeted a WINTER STORM THREAT, first 1 of the season!!!!!
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F16%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=072&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=S
50s Saturday night? Dropping to 40? It’s going to make a lot of people cry when they look out the window and see that heavy rain coming down if this is what pans out.
True dat
That said, CB mentioned the models might not be catching up as far as thermal data. This would suggest the current outlooks are overstated with temps. Of course, if only a degree or two, would make little to no difference.
Sorry, the trends have beat me, so anything I see is offset by our actual results so far. Not to mention these type of systems have been a bust for 14 years- except when in the form of ice.
Almost all (all for central KY) of our several inch or more snows have been from clipper systems.
Trend buster? Just like the 80s group Asia said: “Only time will tell”.
Yes, the BIG wildcard is Dynamic Cooling. This storm is eerily similar to the February 1998 storm. That was a storm that prompted a lot of 1-3″ forecasts, and the infamous “dusting” forecast from the late Brian Collins. If you remember, we woke up to 8″ in Bowling Green, and as much as two feet of snow in central Kentucky. Why? Dynamic Cooling. The storm generated it’s old cold air pool from aloft and pushed it down to the surface, so the model data ended up being too warm. There is a small possibility that could happen again. Small… this will be fun to watch.
It also was proceeded by mid 40 temps.
now Bubba…the 18″plus that landed in 1998 was in March and the city of Lex was shut down for a few days…..can not have your cake and eat it too…lol…;)
That was 14 years ago. There has been no big southern fed event besides ice for central KY. All snow beyond a few inches have been northern fed clippers.
My gut says more rain than snow for se ky of course it could be that burrito 😉
Trends support your burrito 😉
Hopfully its just the burrito and it will actually snow this time around
You’ve been waiting for it all season and here it is. Winter Storm THREAT for Saturday night and Sunday…Gotta love it..
Hey wxman,this is ky, were use to disappointment and tears..But i would agree,this one still looks iffy to me..
New GFS just in and MUCH WETTER and COLDER. Shows most of ky in the 4-8″ range especially south of Louisville to Lexington line
i think u took the words right out of my mouth except for the accumalations. i did not want to give any specifics on accumalations until later.
The pattern and path makes sense. Wild card of course is temps and snow rate (to offset and help factor in the dynamic cooling). Fine line between rain and snow.
I’m a NAM man. 36 hours out and we’ll be about set to post possible amounts IF this thing can happen. Looking at those generic meteograms does give some idea about what to expect but I don’t trust those things this far out. Look at them as we get closer to the event.
Would someone please post a link to the latest GFS?
I posted a link to the height of the storm above.
It’s not really colder or wetter with this run. Not sure where some see that from.
A bunch of folks sticking the necks out on this storm already, this winters snow Ax is to sharp for me to even go their this early????
We could hope
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_84HR.gif
Dang that totally gives Oldham County Nothing….
I’ll take a guess and say the heaviest amount of precip will be NE tenn through parts of SE ky and southern WV with 8-12 possible…Of course any shift north or south things will change…This is my opinion only an could be totally wrong..This is only a test..lol
Chris says: WINTER STORM THREAT MODE…Sounds good to me, I’ll take that and run with it…since its the first one all winter season!!!
Oh goodness, be patient folks! 🙂
COME ON SNOW!!! Even if my whole household is sick– I still want to see it fall!
I’m just gonna say… I’m headed to Chicago tomorrow. Every time that there has been a decent storm threat (ice or snow) in the last decade that has panned out… guess where my family and I have been? Both big ice storms and the last 5″+ snow for Central Kentucky… oh and not to mention something that happened in 1998! Best of luck to you guys. It’s suppossed to be nice and sunny in the good’ole Windy City.
Well my pictures in the reader photo section finally posted from Valentine’s Day— ya’ll go see my heart snowflake 🙂
What are the chance this storm moves further northwest? I know that when the storm turns it typically turns further north. Hopefully this storm can deepen a little more and bring colder air into it.
Being from Met. Lou all the latest data/models suck. Needs to shift more northwest and cold air needs to be in place before we can get into any action besides rain. Time will tell! Still predicting South and SEKY to get the brunt of the snow. Should be interesting to track over the next 24 – 48 hours.