Good Thursday afternoon everybody. It’s been a long time coming, but we now have our first Winter Storm THREAT of the season. Threat level means there is an increased risk for a winter storm to have a significant impact on our region. That does not mean it will happen, but does mean the risk is there.
Here’s a breakdown of what I’m thinking…
A storm track from Louisiana to the Carolinas is one that usually delivers accumulating snows across our region. The EXACT track of this storm will be the big determining factor in who will get the heaviest stripe of snow that will fall late Saturday night into early Sunday.
Don’t go running to the store for bread and milk, just yet. Well… unless you are out of both. 🙂 I will have updates as needed, so check back.
Have a great rest of your day and take care.
how close is this track to super storm 93? I know it started in the gulf.
Finally in the bullseye …lol…I just hope it doesnt end up being the other end of the bull when its all said and done…LOL..LOL…ok days without sleep will make you dilerious…lol
IF ONLY !!!
http://grib2.com/gis-snow-overlays3.php3?BASEHR=12Z&STATIONID=JKL
JKL…discussion from earlier
SHOULD THE LATEST
ECMWF VERIFY AS IT CAME IN THEN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY…FURTHER
EAST AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS…WILL PICK UP SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL INCHES TO A SOLID HALF FOOT. THE BULK OF ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NOON
SUNDAY…BUT THE SNOWS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FAR
EAST AS THE MAIN LOW HITS THE EAST COAST AND UPSLOPE/NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTRIBUTE TO THE WRAP AROUND PCPN. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL JUST START
TO INTRODUCE THE IDEA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW BEING A POSSIBILITY AND
WATCH FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED TO FIRM UP THE
DETAILS AND AMOUNTS.
Looks familiar 😉
Looks like a good ole fashioned Rolo-buster.
That would be awesome if it panned out.
I am referring to the link above being awesome, not a busted forecast just to clarify LOL!
….just hope it doesn’t end up being the other end of the bull when its all said and done…
Good one, LOL!
Euro trended south 🙁
since when does the EURO count? =-)
When it misses Lexington LOL:
If this system pans out, it seems most of KY will be bystanders to the main action. The word “stripe” does not suggest wide heavy coverage.
Seems another central KY miss unless some funky monkey shift more NE than it shows now. 1998 did it, but that was a few years ago.
I appreciate it would miss more than just central KY, but no other area has gone 14 years with a miss.
Meant NW and not NE… duh.
Thanks for the translation
Not really from 00z, main axis of snow sunday morning form west tn/southern KY into southeastern KY. These appear to be the favored locations. Now to see if that holds after another set of runs to get an idea of qpf amounts and time of changeover.
First? 🙂 Ive tried all winter not to get my hopes up for a good snow, because deep down I knew it wouldnt happen… Maybe this will change things, or maybe Im wrong, I guess we’ll see.
second…. dang it!!!
tx CB.
Looks promising come on snow….Thanx CB you just made my day….Cant wait to see the latest models….
Now now CB, you know better than to put that line right over E-town. Remember what happened on Valentine’s Day. 😉 There’s a prayin’ woman over here. 😀
Please move NW over the next 48 hrs….
Ok, will do….6-10″ Lou. Metro! Bank it, lol
yes 6-10″ for Lou. Metro and Southern In would be nice.
Wouldn’t that be nice. To early to get to excited. But as of right now Met. Lou. has nothing to get excited about. Time will tell!!
Even I’m looking forward to this potential snow. I’m sure many here are hoping nature doesn’t pull another wild card………,unless it’s a wildcard of even more snow than expected! Must be salt in the wound when even Midland-Odessa, TX of all places has had almost 20 inches of the white stuff this season!
After this snow, then I’ll be pumped for severe wx season 😉
figures since there is all ready no school on Monday due to President’s day!
Depending on where your kids go to school mine according to the district calender are scheduled to go
well it is a OLD SCOOL LOW, only thing is QUICK MOVER nothing to slow it down or it be a BIG DADDY and a true OLD SCHOOL.
noticing BLOG already having trouble loading, i see a CRASH coming because CB new site hasnt seen ANYTHING liker the traffic next 2 days,
THIS MADE MY DAY…..threat mode feels good and its been a long time coming…….JKL even saying this is significant! I’ll be crushed if its not!
A lot of people are hoping this goes a little more northwest, but remember, farther northwest with the low means even warmer air. And it’s already going to be a close call as it is.
LOL at that discussion from JKL. “several inches to a solid half foot”. So, 7-9 inches to as much as 6 inches? Huh? 🙂 Somebody didn’t have their coffee yet this morning.
Catch 22, so if more NW, no snow for anyone, but stays the track, less than 20% of the state gets a good snow and the rest diddly 😉
1998 shifted and the dynamic cooling made the cold air on the fly, so IF heavy snow- not as much an issue.
My last post until more data, since the trends have made me Negative Ned.
I agree BubbaG….If this was January and cold air was already in place then the NW push would be great. NW on this one could put the southern parts in rain and Ohio River North as snow bullseye….More than likely this will track futher to the south before heading up coast or out to sea. Still think South/SouthEastKY will get the good snow.
NCentral Ky looks to miss out again, goodluck south & east but I would not get to fired up just yet! Theme this year has been seasonal trend & 14 year big snow drought?? Lots to over come!
First time in the high risk zone in forever! Don’t change a thing Chris…Let ‘er Rip!
Wow! A threat! Waited all winter to see that! Chris, whatever happens, that is the closest we have been all winter to anything like that. I hope nature will give us some good stuff out of it, and even give us a little snow love would be nice. No, not getting excited, really, but, just amazed that you have finally gotten to use the word “threat.” 😀 Lets hope it becomes “likely.”
Latest from the HPC’s 4+” probability forecast for day 3
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
Looking better…
need more westward movment and hope that doesn’t turn into 4+ inches of rain instead
Forgot to throw in the 8″ probability forecast from the HPC as well…
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif
Slight chance, but looking like a big one to me…
Still, not getting my hopes too high yet, but the upper air data is in.
Trying to figure out how the northern and southern system will get together. Always tough to figure out.
I am officially getting excited. Can’t wait for the next runs.
yea im not sure either, like to live in WV into PA they are in SWEET SPOT.
storm track pretty much set in stone as u see it developing now and it going be a bigf storm.
if i had to forcast right now I say 1-3 inches TOPS in SE KY and e ky with HIGHER ELVATIONS getting most on bporder.
but like I said this morning it was cool just to have a southern storm to look at and dream for few hours anywho.
i go with less based on this winter than what your giving
Rain will cut down on totals…Keeping my fingers crossed.
i’m so sick of this winter! i’m ready for either a HUGE snow, or no snow! i hate 1/2 inch snows!
New run of the Nam pushed the storm well south, surprised I am not.
I’ll betcha we dont get nothing out of it.
Storm is 3 days away and folks are freaking out on models which have been wrong all winter, the blog is fun to just watch folks flip flop hour to hour 🙂 !
Yea the nam has slowed the system down not allowing the northern stream to phase..I would say if we get no phasing then it will be suppressed further south..Still early so next runs could trend back to our favor..
Wow the new nam doesn’t look good at all. Hopefully we don’t get let down this time. THINK PHASE!!!
NWS Louisville says: Have increased POPS Saturday night with likely mention along and south of an Elizabethtown to Lexington line. Further north, will carry a solid chance to along and just north of the Ohio River.
Belski says:
For now, this is nothing to get excited about. A last minute bump to the north in the track is needed for us to get snow. The chance for this to track north of the current forecast is more likely than a track further south. Sometimes, when you get rapid intensification, the storm systems can lift to the north. We will just have to keep an eye on it.
Brian Goode WAVE3 says:
Latest GFS: Track still on for snow for much of KY. Heavy snow potential along and south of the BG/WK Parkways…no real change from earlier. Note: I am just posting model updates this evening. Not our forecasts just yet. Also just learned that the afternoon runs of the NAM/EURO have been discounted by HPC due to bad data. So the trend south is being questioned. Still way early folks. Tomorrow is the day for us to take an official stab at this one. I will have the latest NAM just after 9pm tonight.
2012 & we have no clue if it’s going to snow or not in two days
LOL!! we can send a man to the moon but we can’t figure out if it is going to snow or not.
i am done. i have stuff to do this weekend. i keep getting seed catalogs in the mail. i am ready for spring.
No doubt! I have no less than 20 catalogs on my coffee table.
I still want a good snow before I start my seedlings though 🙂
Don’t give up hope just yet people. 🙂
WOW the GFS 18z run SLAMS southeast Ky with heavy snow….much colder than most all the previous runs. The storm track is nearly perfect for a major snowfall. It is just one run tho, and Chris said not to look too much into the temp profiles this early. Man I wish it would verify, cause the 18z NAM was depressing.
Looks like eastern KY gets the majority accoring to this
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif
not SE KY 🙁
that wad the 06z run….18z shifts to west & has the low deeper in intensity. With such rapid intensification, I really do expect this to continue trending north!
I just want snow in Berea. I am not gonna be greedy just decent snow, let’s say three inches so kids can sled will be first real sledding for my 5 yr old if we get it ..
Anyone see the 18z gfs?
However, the New GFS coming in still likes a storm for KY, I hate that when the NAM and GFS are apart on the storm track less than 72 hours out.
LoL TGs map looked identical to Chris’s somebody is cheating LOL
Yea just read about the HPC saying the runs didn’t initialize correctly..Hug the 18 GFS is sure is pretty..Just wish it was saturday all ready..
Yes, this is indeed fact…so, everyone relax about.EURO.& NAM 18Z runs. His GFS is on to something & more of KY may be in line for accumulating snow then what is expected.
MISS KATE im not sure we EVER WENT TO THE MOON, why havnt we went back then. i know why the hell go in first place. but I question we ever went to the actual moon.
i think they was out in arizona desert myself.lollllllllllllllllll
Well it seems there is no good track for central KY. It seems if it’s east of the apps, there’s a sharp cut off for central KY (Lou would get nothing Lex would be on the edge of the precip) and if it’s west of the apps (good for Lou), bad for cky………..Did eastern KY even get anything in feb 1998? I know Lex, Lou and Cincy did, but I can’t remember if eastern KY got anything from that storm. It makes me wonder if it’s even possible for the entire state to get huge snow from the same storm. It seems like it’s always one region or the other for each storm.
You are correct, large snowstorms never hit statewide for some reason in KY, in Jan 1994 Frankfort had 20in plus, but most of Lexington measured about 10in. 20 miles difference 10in. difference?? Narrow Banding makes a big spread over a short distance! March 1993 south east KY had 25in or more in some areas, Frankfort had 1-2 in.
So Mr Cantore’s interpertation of the gfs anybody south of London get the same ole 1-3 north of that 3-6 and I64 area gets 6-12 and the euro is bout the same
LIKE 🙂
and i will add a dislike if its 1-3 it will end up being what all other snows have been this yr which is a dusting at best
So the 6-12 included Lexington?
according to twc yes
This from NWS Paducah’s 3pm CST discussion:
BIGGEST CONCERN IS WITH SAT NIGHT…AS ANOTHER SOUTHERN BRANCH MID
LEVEL TROF EJECTS ENE FROM TX. WILL INITIATE A SFC LOW…WHICH
SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE TREND FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS BEEN TO BRING PRECIP SHIELD FURTHER AND FURTHER
NORTH/EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM…ESP OVER SE MO AND WRN KY. BIGGER
QUESTION WILL BE WITH PRECIP TYPE. 12Z OP NAM SUGGESTS A 4 TO 6
INCH SNOW EVENT ALONG SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KY PARKWAY…BUT MOST
OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE WARMER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUGGEST
LIGHT RAIN…POSSIBLY CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATER SAT NIGHT. WITH
ALL OF THE DIFFERENCES…OPTED TO JUST MENTION RAIN OR SNOW FOR
NOW. BOTH MAY END UP OCCURRING. WILL NOT MENTION ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION NUMBERS AT THIS TIME.
Local mets are wondering if there will be enough cold air, but says it’s one to watch.
yea ricmond north and ne best shot at snow on ground.
South Central Ohio/NE KY area would be wonderful..I just want to see some snow on the ground and streets..even if it is the weekend…
I miss winter!
I always been told that the 6z&18z runs are not as good as the 0&12z. I hope that all the models will come into a near agreement on the next run. Come on 0z move this system more west!
What do you guys think about Harrison County? What if any accumulation can we expect?
Snow nerd fight!!!! Reverse civil war, east v. west!!!
Seriously, if TWC is pegging Lex for 6-12, I need to cash in some FFM’s and head south. Probably means we’ll get snow tornadoes.
LOL!! I was thinking the same thing! TWC NEVER has central KY in the sweet spot for any kind of weather event.
Can someone pl ease post to the link to the new nam and it’s accumulations when it comes out? Tx
Is there a link for this twc report or did he say on tv? Just want to read or see where he’s saying this