Good Thursday evening. The Winter Storm Threat continues for Saturday night into Sunday for much of the state. The latest run of the GFS went crazy with the snowfall forecast and I wanted to throw this piece of eye candy your way.
Here ya go…
Let’s be clear… this is one run of one model and I am in no way endorsing what it’s showing. It’s fun to post and talk about because something like that is, at least, a possibility in a perfect snow world. IF something like that worked out… it wouldn’t be a good thing because that would cause some major issues because of how wet the snow would be.
This thing is a long way from being anywhere close to being a for sure thing for our region. It is all about the exact track of the low. A track too far to the south means a glancing blow of light snow. A track too far to the north and it’s more rain than snow.
Winter Storm Threat continues and we will upgrade or downgrade things as we get closer to the weekend.
Have a great evening and take care.
Well that has Keavy, Kentucky in the 4 – 6″ range if I am reading it right. Now here is what is funny, here is the forecast for Keavy from the Jackson Weather Service:
Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 51. Light and variable wind.
Saturday Night: Rain showers likely before 4am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Light wind becoming northeast between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday: Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all rain after 11am. Cloudy and breezy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers, mainly before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Washington’s Birthday: Sunny, with a high near 46.
Now which is going to happen? Rain and more rain or a snow storm?
THINK SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!
my best is rain and more rain
Thought you were basically saying keep positive and think snow? I can’t since the trends are what they are and we have not had one of these type systems smack central KY in 14 years.
Still, you need to keep the faith for us that do not 😉
Eat a taco instead of a burrito 🙂
Ughhh less than a inch for me!
I am in the 10-12″ inch range. I will trade you because I do not want to be without electricity for days if this snow storm materializes for the simple fact it will be heavy, wet snow that will snap power lines.
i’m on a gas well so i can live without power so trade with me 😉
Hopefully it will go a bit further south
I’ll trade you…..send it to Versailles!!
I would take some snow at this point.
Chris unlike Lucy gives a disclaimer before Charlie Brown kicks the ball. Should say before he tries to kick the ball.
Howdy MikeM!
Hey Patty. That snowfall map is so tight it has Woodford county getting 3 inches in the north, 4 inches in the Middlesbrough and 5 inches south. In hate to be a pessimist but after this year it’s hard to get excited. I did buy a gallon of milk and a loaf of bread last night but only because I was out.
Where did middlesbro come from?
I knew what you meant! I’m being very cautious myself. I think old age has made a pessimist out of me!! Even if we do get a snow it’ll be outta here before we can take pictures! LOL!!
See ya at Kroger! I’ll be the one in the ugly QG uniform!!
You all rock, but I see a lot of bloggers and CB as Charlie Brown, and this system and models as Lucy & the football.
Not once has these systems panned out in over 14 years. They have either been rain makers or shifted east and our far E KY folks got some action.
Can not shake the warm air with this thing, but then again, the dusting of 98 (our last system like this that hit) was a surprise until the minute it started.
I will not try and kick the football, but I will watch you guys 😉
It is not a good thing to be in sweet spot this early. We all know that. The question is how will the band shift. I will go with south which is the opposite of normal. It normally goes north. You see if it went north it would put Louisville in the sweet spot and we all know that aint going to happen. Snow deprived capital of the world. I hope but I have seen this before.
I’m rooting for st a tad northern shift
IF that snowfall map was correct, far north Fayette co. gets 3-4 in. and far south Fayette gets 6-7. I’m in SE Fayette, so at least I’m on the right side of county for more snow 🙂
Will be interesting to compare this map to tomorrow and Saturday for comedic effect 😉
Other weather outlets are showing the same snowfall chart but about 60 miles further north?? This is all about that track, north KY has about the same chance as southern KY for significant snow at this time????
There have been perfect set ups before..Maybe one more time…I say bring it on..Major issues and what else mother nature has to throw at us..
I know someone posted earlier about Jim Cantore putting I-64 in the 6-12″ zone…I have looked on the Weather.com website & just can’t find it. Anyone have the link??
watched it live on the Tele didn’t see it on the website
ahhh….ok, lol.
A writeup on the Snow from WeatherNation TV http://www.facebook.com/weathernation can be found here: http://blogs.hamweather.com/2012/02/16/more-rain-for-texas/
Please monitor this site also for updated weather info. I think they are way better then TWC.
Jim Cantore is the only good thing at TWC. And he makes a valid point. This thing with the gulf moisture and the track being shown isnt too accurate. Look for a slight shift northward with an expanding precip shield on the models.
That’s what I keep saying!! This thing with such a rapid intensification, is bound to pull north & as it does, it will pull the gulf moisture with it…just my amateur opinion. Even if the maps don’t show this tomorrow, I still feel like it will be there & many will be surprised, if this is the case.
If it pulls further north that means all rain for us SE peeps and we would not be surprised
Not if heavy snow and dynamic cooling!…….. Have anymore burritos?
I will let you know Saturday lol
That’s impossible. Everybody knows the power of the fence. It can be south of it or north but never on it. Cantore needs to do his homework. 😉
I know we all want a big snow, but when we get heavy, wet snow (10 inches plus), that means power outage problems due to downed power lines due to the weight of the snow. Give me a few inches of aesthetic snowfall, and I will be fine. This map has me in the 10-12 inch range, and I don’t want to think about a power outage for gosh only knows how long.
I like it, we are on the line between 10 and 12 inches.
ONCE AGAIN THAT GREAT TO LOOK AT FOR SOME BUT IN REALITY THATS not going to happen folks.
THIS STORM RIGHT NOW GOING MOVE TO FAR NORTH imo FOR ALOT IN THE state.
richmond north and ne BEST SHOT AT ANT THING decent OUT THIS, I SAY 4 INCHES WITH LOCVALLY HIGHER FUTHER NORTH U GO, FACT IS THERE AINT GOING BE A big area OF SNOW WHEREVER IT IS, 50-60 MILES SWATH AT BEST.
Very nIce eye candy to look at for sure! Would be nice to see it, for sure. We are due, but I will sit back and see what Chris has to say as it gets closer. Too much can change at this point. Thanks, Chris for the post. Fun to dream about.
Bardstown/Nelson Co here…well, I reckon 4″ looks fine..only about 1/2-2/3″ more than what we got the last time a few wks. ago., and that was freakish, at BEST!
Here’s hoping that we ALL get some GOOD SNOW out of this one! 🙂
Nam anyone?????
18z Nam and 12z ECMWF discarded by HPC due to bad data.
Like ur tweet snowfall
i prefer this one much more
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_84HR.gif
this the latest?
That is one CRAZY map!
Hope this forecast stays true!!
The 0z nam run should start around 9:30p. I hope it moves a little more northwest. I want all of ky to share in the snowfall.
So the one above wasn’t the latest?
The redistribution of snowfall totals is not going to happen.
This is an East KY event.
We will be the 1% in snow totals.
So get over it, take a bath, and buy a snowglobe.
This storm has the look of one from Jan 96, Forecast started as several inches in Seast KY with a dusting in CKY & Louisville area. This storm wrapped up and dumped 12in. plus all the way to the North &west to southern Indiana.
I’ll be in Lexington saturday night and Sunday to do my live cast outside Rupp Arena during the blizzard.
Is this the real Jim Cantore??
Please say you are joking 🙂
Anyone remember the December 2009 storm?
http://digitaljournal.com/article/284322
Yes. We got a foot in eastern Pike county and was without power for a week. I really hope this storm isn’t like that one.
0Z NAM is coming North
How much will knott co get.
i like have a quarter for ever click on here thru tomm.lollllllllllllllllllll
I would take a dime
LOL it’s gonna be crazy. I’m clicking alot tonight haha
New Nam likes KY as a whole with Central KY becoming the sweet spot at least through hour 66
just as predicted in my post way before run.GOODNITE MY FRIENDS it bed time. gotta refresh the brain for another day hard work at the TRACK.
00Z NAM paints 5-9″ of snow in central KY, if taken literally. That’s interesting, considering the previous run showed literally ZERO for us.
Can you post the link to the snow map please?? We want to see! 🙂
NAM is an absolutely gorgeous hit for most of KY…WOW…
THE 18Z had corrupt data!
New nam not good for eky???
Yes the NAM is north this is a typical correction with the models. Dynamical cooling is really impressive with Kentucky in the sweet spot for snows Sunday. Can’t ask for a better synoptic set-up on the models that what the NAM shows ( of course would like it to be cooler Sat). Keep in mind though this one model run and still 2 days out.
I thought we didn’t want it to be too cold, that would push the storm south, wouldn’t it?
dynamical cooling is precip resulting in cooling not cold air advection which will push the track further southeast.
Sorry, but this is not dynamical cooling. In order to get cooling, you have to have some sort of evaporation and hence, you would need dry air. Given that the vertical soundings show a moist atmosphere, you are not going to get cooling. The banding is due to the coupled jet structure and a tightening of the thermal gradient aloft. This is known as frontogenetical forcing.
Good point, so how is a big snow rationalized for this apparent system for anyone not at higher elevations?
I am sensing Lucy getting her football ready….
Yea andI’ve been the sucker the past 14 years thinking I’ll get to kick it. You think I’d learn.:(
Brian Goode WAVE TV
Latest NAM: seems to have its bugs worked put. Track is back north. This latest run is slower and a bit warmer with crashing temps Sunday. The daytime snow threat may limit snow amounts but accumulation potential remains. Same areas-along and south of the Ohio river. I will update when the gfs comes out.
Can someone post snowfall graph for new nam
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_84HR.gif
that is NOT the new 0z NAM…it is the exact same as last nights. The new one isn’t out just yet. It will be soon. That is why I posted the QPF of current 0z NAM.
Love the 0z nam. May just get to use the snow shovel after all this winter. Was thinking it was just gonna sit in the corner of garage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see winter storm watch out by this time
tomorrow.
man this low moved way north and stronger looking to me..Looks like phasing occured and pulled it further north..Should be interesting looking at further runs..lol
the QPF output for the 0Z NAM is quite impressive:
Here is the map…
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamp24078.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_84HR.gif
snow totals would be nice if we get them
this even gives areas in Lou. Metro 6″ of heavy wet snow…and WOW, central KY over a foot! This map wouldn’t surprise me to verify. As I said, the rapid intensification pulls the low more north and really spreads gulf moisture with it. Wow, I really did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, ha
Are we looking at the same map or am I totally reading it wrong… it says snow totals in inches and Central Kentucky (Lexington and surrounding areas are mainly in the blue, yellow and light green… in other words 2-5 inches. Louisville is in the 1-3 inch area.
Just wondering if I’m seeing the wrong map??
Ah… nm, I see where you posted below! Looking at the wrong map 🙂 Your map looks a LOT better and gives me a little bit of hope 😛
copy and paste this and open in a new window, to see the map. I forget it disables after you post, lol.
Can’t wait until the morning’s post. It will be exciting to read, no doubt. If we are going to get some snow, then let it be a foot deep.
Come on 0z Gfs&Euro!Please have the same solution.
At this point in time I am glad Metro Lou. is in the 1″ zone. Trend north and stay cold. Time will tell
Louisville is no longer in the 1″ zone…It is in the 5-7″ zone. The snow map Andyrose posted was 0z last night. The QPF I posted has Lou. Metro in the .5-.75″= 5-7″ snow, if it verifies.
Thanks!
Have not seen the update on snowfall with the latest Nam. Is Louisville still in the one inch zone.
snow map hasn’t been released. But, that is why i did QPF breakdown…Louisville isn’t in the 1″ anymore. Closer to half a foot.
This is aligning up with my thoughts. I will say, the latest NAM honestly looks the most realistic so far with dynamic cooling being taken into account. Also, the precip shield continues to become larger as we go along with the models, which is also very realistic because this is a gulf system, you’re most likely not going to see a thin strip of heavy snow.
Interesting!
Tg shuck now in winter storm threat mode
very interesting! However, I still find myself on the northern edge of this system receiving 1″. hoping the talk of the precip spreading comes to be!! I will not wish for a large shift north, I want to share the snow, not take it from others, however if it does shift I won’t be complaining:)
So am I reading right with 4-5 for berea
Latest NAM snowfall map…..http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gif
😀
You beat me to it Larkin!! lol…
Just as I said: 5-8″ for Lou Metro…10″ in E-town! even more than a foot east and central. woo hoo…let’s keep this train going!
Haha I gotcha c-BIV. I honestly think that this is the track the storm is taking. NAM is quite accurate on short range.
Whoa! One can only hope 😀
that map sucks i liked mine better if all we are getting is an inch hope it hugs the coast of FL 😉
Hahah, weve got plenty of room in cky if this does happen. Make the trip! haha
Well that put me in the running….
Folks, unless some funky dynamic cooling kicks in, seems the warm air would cut totals in at least half. Just saying.
Need CB to convince otherwise.
Still in the 10 to 12 inch range. Great
Definitely not as good for se ky. Wow what a change 🙁
Remember this is one run. Many mets will tell you that predicting snow accumulations is the hardest thing to do in the field.
I’m an amateur and its still very difficult.
If this happens, we have some open seats here in Lburg for ya to watch it with us! If it hits eky, I may make a trip down there. haha
Haha u know it larkin!!! And yeah I agree predicting snowfall is really difficult
No matter what happens, I dont wanna miss a wet snowstorm, with more than 6″. On my list of things to see before I’m out of high school. And trust me, I’ve had too many busts its not even funny. Don’t be like Bll meck said and take this with a grain of salt, but dont place your money in this just yet.
listen to Jim C at 11.
What a change of feelings!!! I was afraid this system would go too far north, and this just may be the case for us in se ky. Went from 10-12 to 1-3 :'(
oops posted twice
we will be begging for 1-3 inches of rain is whats in store for us JonB 😉
Andy I’m afraid u might be right LOL
Don’t pay attention to the nam until one day out..
Just kidding..Would like to see someone in ky get a good pounding..Hopefully Bubba so he will shut up about the dome..LOL
lol! hahah I agree. I hope bubba gets 28″ at his house. haha
Mother nature has a way of balancing nature. We have been very low on the snow side this winter this may catch us up. But at this time I think it will be mostly rain event.
looks like a wild run starting out on the GFS
No matter what happens on the GFS, I am still stickin to the NAM. GFS isn’t super great within a 3 day time span.
What is it showing right now!
GFS is actually a tad east of the NAM SLP position through 48…otherwise they look similar
Please keep updating!
THE GFS is actually very plain..still most snow in Eastern KY but nothing like the NAM…the slp goes NE than turns due east…it absolutely nails VA though
I know it’s getting close but I think we would all have been better off if this last run was just a little south. That was a pretty big jump to the north during the last runs. If the next few runs trend north then hello snow for the northern section of Kentucky. If past history is any indication then anything out past 18-24 hours is likely to see even more of a northern trend.
Went from 8-10 to less than 3 in one run here on the border. Wouldn’t be suprised if this baby moved twice that amount to the north before this thing is over. Looks like rain down here.
couldn’t agree more Mr T
The storm didn’t actually move that far north. The run before it was a fluke, and from 12z, it has move slightly north. IMO, this is the track. Like it or hate it, but I honestly think that this is the track.
as myself and Tornadolarking have been saying…it isn’t moving THAT much north as much as it is really locking in on the phasing & spreading the gulf moisture north that comes with such a “rapid” intensification.
People wished for it to move north…if it keeps moving north, we may end up with zilch!
Considering what will be falling is heavy wet snow, I would be happy with 1-3 inches. Too much more would cause a lot of problems.
Very true!
The last decent storm that had a similar path through here a couple of years ago had a similar look as the earlier run less than a day out. Had southern Kentucky getting nailed about a day out. Models showing 10+ inches for this area. Long story short, Lexington area ended up with 6 inches, farther north more, and southern Kentucky a dusting. This thing is still going to move. This is a Saturday night storm and the models want get a handle on it until after tomorrow night.
Hope someone gets a big one, but I still say this thing trends north.
Well, looks like se ky has went from the bullseye to the outside looking in. Anybody know what the gfs looks like? If this doesn’t pan out, I give up 🙁
Like I said earlier, similar to the storm a few years ago. Southern KY went from bulls eye to a dusting in less than a day. Hopefully the people in snow deprived central Ky can hang on to it. I think the southern portion of the state is out of play on this one. More rain with slow, slow switch over.
Yeah I agree. I thought I may have had a chance with this one, as I have never seen a snow larger than 6 inches. Well I think ill call it quits…
Ok GFS, it really makes sense that a low pressure that is rapidly intensifying just decides to take the normal path of a strengthening low, and then just heads southeast. That doesn’t happen. Get real.
What run?
0z. It makes absolutely now sense whatsoever that a rapidly intensifying low pressure system is taking the normal track it would take and then it just moves southeast. I still think that the NAM has a way better handle on this.
lol…now try to explain that to the next 50 people on here who say “hype” and it will miss us completely, or it will just be rain, yada, yada, yada…I am sticking with the NAM, just the same.
Exactly. You see the GFS? It’s a bit abnormal for a rapidly intensifying low.
Gfs accumulations out yet?
I’m going to bed. I may put a little faith in what CB says on his Saturday afternoon update. Models have pretty much been junk the last couple of years anything more than a day out. I guess we will see when we look out our window. lol
Not yet, but QPF looks bad for all as the GFS has it too warm. I dont think the GFS is right.
When can we see the 0z euro?
It starts around 2am. It is like a west coast game. I will read about it tomorrow in the papers.
Gfs was a better run for eastern ky..Pretty much like the last run of the 18z…Have not compared them yet but looked about the same..So if you’re in Eastern Ky root for the GFS..Seriously hope everyone gets snow but who knows yet,we may get nothing..
Jim C said Eastren kentucky might get 10 inches he doesnt know.
lol…Jim c don’t know or me..I said the GFS lastest run looked similiar to the GFS 18z run..Which in turn looks good for eastern ky..What more do you want..
CB mentions the NAM in his tweets. Key words are crushing and dusting. Not a forecast- just model comments.
It’s so funny watching everyone get themselves all crazy over this “eye candy”.
We shall see…..
That CB is pushing like a candyman 😉
You guys rooting for the NAM need to back down a little. *if* this thing intensifies, it could very well draw too much warm air out of the gulf and spoil the party for all of central and east KY. Then our friends in the Buckeye state will be enjoying the white stuff.
I wouldn’t mind the GFS solution-a bit weaker, more suppressed. It would mean a sharp cutoff line to the north in regards to snow totals, but less warm air advection. That’s just my amateurish opinion though.
Goooo NAM!!
TG can’t say the word snow without using unfortunately in the same sentence. Drives me nuts. The 3 day temps for sat night and Sunday are all above freezing but they keep calling for snow. We shall see.
One thing about the nam it usually over does snow amounts..But with this system having all this moisture and Dynamical cooling,, totals could very well be correct or maybe more IMO..Sure will be interesting tomorrow with the models..We shall see..
NAM will win! hahah jk who knows at this point, I just want at least 3″.
Great the two models have not come to a consensus. Maybe the euro can break the deadlock. If not the 12z tomorrow might sell us on what is likely to happen.
and bam its gone
Does anyone know what Clark County will get? Thanks
@wxman…….what about Bowling Green?