Good Friday to one and all. We continue with a Winter Storm Threat for Saturday night and Sunday for much of the state. The setup continues to point toward the potential for several inches of heavy, wet snow across our part of the world and I imagine an upgrade to an Alert will be coming later today or Saturday. That’s when I should get a better handle on the exact track of the low and have a better idea on accumulations and placement.
Here’s a look at my updated threat map…
A few thoughts…
– The threat is for the potential for a heavy, wet snowfall of 4″ or more inches. The possibility is there for double-digit snowfall totals for some areas if the storm works out according to plan. It is only a possibility as of now.
– Low pressure will develop across Texas and Louisiana Saturday and lift northeastward into the Carolinas by Sunday afternoon.
– Clouds will increase on Saturday and temps will hit the 50s. Yes, we will be in the 50s with the threat of a snowstorm looming.
– Temps will then drop to 32 or below by daybreak Sunday and remain below freezing much of the day. Monday morning may be the coldest of the winter, so far.
– Precipitation will move in from southwest to northeast Saturday night. This may begin as light rain, but will quickly change to heavy, wet snow and continue through Sunday. This snow may be very heavy at times.
– Areas getting in on 5″ or more of snow will face possible power and tree problems.
– There will be a sharp cutoff to the northern extent of the accumulating snowfall.
– The forecast is HIGHLY dependent on the exact track of the low. Once I can get a better handle on the track, I will put out a first call for snowfall map. That should be coming later today.
To illustrate what a small change in the track of the low can mean for snowfall totals… check out these model forecasts…
NAM
GFS
The model picture should become much more clear later today. I will have updates as needed and that will include a First Call For Snowfall map. I suspect Winter Storm Watches will be forthcoming from the NWS offices across the region.
Have a great Friday and take care.
Quite the setup developing. Hoping for a good snow day in Lex!
Can’t wait to see what we end up with here in Madison county. Hopefully enough to sled down the back yard a few times. 🙂
Ah we might get a 1/2 inch at best. It’s been that way the last 14 years. #bubbaGparody
With a half-inch I’ll just push the sled over the hill riderless and watch. I could still call it sledding then. lol
I like your thinking Kathy….
Parody is okay with me, but this system seems far more likely to be a heartbreaker than a big snow maker. Already it seems rather than starting to snow Saturday night, it would be Sunday morning.
Seems a lot of folks have already started to run towards the football.
I’ve been kicking the football for 14 years now. Old habits are hard to break despite the obvious outcomes. Trying to balance you out Bubba. That’s a good thing.
🙂
Understood and needed.
Looks like I am moving from Alabama up to Kentucky Saturday through Monday lol
how about knott co
SE KY is gonna get hammered! Best chance for big snowfall totals!
pfft
🙂
Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 51. Light and variable wind.
Saturday Night: Rain showers likely before 4am, then rain and snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Northeast wind between 3 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday: Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all rain after 10am. Cloudy and breezy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers, mainly before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
NWS in Jackson says that!! :-S
There is now a special weather statement with good chance of accumulating snow. Plus, accuweather.com is giving 5.9 inches of snow for my area in Eastern KY. Things are changing by the minute. Got milk?
For what its worth…After looking at some of the data here are my early thoughts for Lexington to Danville area of central Ky.:
Sunday morning snow developes by 5am and continues thru the day tapering off early evening. Heavy at times and possible mix at times.
Temperatures will cool rapidly to 32 or lower.
Potential accums of 4-7 inches.
Nice call. I think both cky and eky are gonna get hit pretty hard.
I think warm temperatures will win out.
Agreed. There is a reason CB is not even hinting on snow map. The POTENTIAL is there, but how likely is dubious due to the warm air.
Lucy is setting the football. Any kickers?
Hello?
Once I can get a better handle on the track, I will put out a first call for snowfall map. That should be coming later today.
Was referring to no snow map as of now, for a system starting tomorrow, but just noticed CB posted this over six hours ago.
My bad.
no problems have a burrito 😉
By this afternoon models should be converging on a solution but either way, looks like this is the best chance for snow we have had in sometime
Can I hear teachers start to cheer? Can’t wait to see what the next runs show!
Based on how models tend to do, it will trend north a bit. It could dip south but it may be late in the game for that but its Ky. We’ve been shafted before.
In my not so professional opinion I predict for my area…..A BIG BUST!! Just like the last few teasers!! LOL!
Can’t blame you patty. Our luck has not been the Greatest in Versailles but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then. We are due. I work the hospital this weekend so I’ll be close to krogers.
Thanks CB….I am not taking up to much stock in the NAM. It has only been on board with its snow totals for one day. The GFS and others have been more consistant with bringing the big snow to South and SEKY. Lou. Metro off to the west will only see light amounts out of this. Although I am excited for most of you snow lovers out there, here in Louisville I am not getting my hopes up. It has been a while since we have seen over a 4″ snow and I don’t see it happening this weekend. It will be fun to track over the next day two days and I will hold out hope for a NW shift of the current track, but not counting on it.
Have a great day, I sure it will be as busy as yesterday.
0z NAM makes the shift northwestward, and I expect to see the same with the 12z runs. Northwest shift, I think, will happen.
yes, the 0z & 12z runs tend to be the best data outputs. 6z & 18z are historically not near as accurate . When I see a 12z run of the NAM that doesn’t include Lou Metro in the 5″+ area, then I will concede.
What time do the next runs come out?
starts at 9:30..stay tuned, lol
well lets hope not
NAM says BAM!!!! I selfishly hope that one verifies. Best part is it hits on Weekend so no missed school. I want to be out BEFORE Memorial Day and I want all of my remaining days off as scheduled.
looks like this morning runs of the GFS wallops eastern ky..Just don’t see it with temps in the 50’s for sat then start snowing sunday morning..Just as well see it do nothing if all were going to see is 4 inches..
Thanks for keeping us updated Chris! If we get this storm, I’m afraid a lot of people might be without power. Not good. Everyone be safe.
SE E KY better get ready for HAMMER TIME. models are coming back to yesterday morning thoughts and BAILEY threat MAP SPOT ON.
that said who really wants to lose power, but they clean alot of tree lines out over years.
READY FOR SNOW i take it u a youngsters? cause EVER DECENT SNOW
Baileys Moderate Threat map also expanded North & West. I expect that trend to continue the next 24hrs. Everyone as far west as the Ohio River is still players in this far from set in stone Map.
LOL..No youngster rolo,seen some big snow’s in my times..Lets just say i can remember a few in the 60’s in my youngster yrs..
let me finish,lol
ever good snow i remember was start with rain WARM air then quick switch and BOOM, u dont get big snows with regular systems, the WARM AIR what makes the STORM. the ATMOSPHERE is JUICED, the cold air wraps in and its on.
how much, well it all bout how fast it moves any slow down of system and it could go BIG DADDY.
I just REALLY hope the Bowling Green area doesn’t get missed entirely by this one!! I said I was done hoping for snow, but I’m not going to lie……..this is getting me excited! If trend continues though…………it will either miss us completely or just be all RAIN!! Curious as to how it will all pan out!
This fellow resident of Warren County feels likewise. Not as much of a winter lover as others – I’m more toward severe spring wx, but even I’m getting a bit pumped.
Can’t help remembering the incredible Blizzard of 93 as a kid in east TN, what an adventure that was, but what a disruption! Hoping this weekend snow will get us a pretty scene without too many problems.
my first call for snow being in southeast ky is… dusting! to much warm air will get in this system and by the time the cold air wraps in the moisture will be gone!!!
Be careful saying “dusting”. Just may get a Brian Collins dusting 😉
Local met here is giving a trace amount for me 🙁 A trace…really!! Boo!!
The reason the NAM has higher snow totals is because it’s temp. profile is a little colder, keeping the precip. as all snow rather than a rain changing to snow like the GFS shows.
Since we do not know the exact path of the low yet.. it is impossible to say that one model is correct and one isn’t. A little more time.. probably by tonight we’ll know for certain.
Wxman….I totally agree. It is fun to trend the models, see the new posts and read all the comments, but reality will set in over the next 48 hours when this system really gets moving and everyone has a better handle on the exact track. Not getting my hopes up here in Louisville as we are always on the northern or southern side of the heavy snow. Time will tell. Have a great day.
I dont know where in Louisville you are but we have had some good snows here the last 15 years. 2 winters ago we had 3, 6+ inch snows that winter.
Yes sir you are correct. 2010 we had three snows of 4″ or more. I am talking 6-8 or 8-12. Last big one besides ICE Storm was pre Christmas 2004(I thinks). We got seven inches 2″ snow and 5″ sleet. Talk about just missing out on a huge snow storm, that was the one. We would have had over 30 inches of snow in Louisville.
March 0f 10 we got 10-12 inches in one storm.
Good summary, since everything is relative.
WX man I read your update yesterday on your site and wondered if your thoughts are the same. I know you said 1-3 for central Ky but I wondered what you thought was possible for EKY? Thanks for the updates as well on your site….they are appreciated!
I want to look at the 12Z suite of models before I make a firm call, but here’s what I’m thinking right now: The NAM model looks like it’s taking into account more cold air advection with the low. You can even see it in the 2M charts. The 0 line dips directly behind the low pressure pretty good. Also, you have the possibility of dynamic cooling in the heavier precip. bands. NAM looks to be picking up on this better than GFS right now.
Having said that, GFS has a better track record so far this season. So… what’s a guy to do?
Based upon what I’m seeing right now, I would go for 2-4″ in the Frankfort area, 3-5″ in Lexington area, and 6-12″ in the Corbin/London area. Pikeville is about to get hammered. Now, let’s see what the 12Z and 18Z runs do today before we make a firm call…
What about Bowling Green?
Thanks, I appreciate your input for sure…..look forward to your update and hope more people check out your blog….its awesome 🙂
Nothing in weather is “For Certain”!!!
I’m hoping for the Euro’s placement. More of a southern and eastern Kentucky snow, with lighter amounts near the Ohio River.
snowfall accumulation maps are rarely accurate as they can give a lot of false hope..But who knows with this system..Remember the Halloween party back in oct for the folks in the north east..
I just want snow…….wait I said that a few times this year. Oh well I am thinking snow ,praying for snow and will eat snow if it just snows good ….what’s a girl have to do to get some snow love in berea….it can miss all of berea and hit just my house if that pleases non snow lovers lol
first I dont think either those snow maps are right from models as far as the HIGH END goes.
this storm to fast to produce foot of snow as far as NAM goes its drunk. GFS closer to what CAN FALL.
read what WXMAN said above, rolo …The NAM isn’t necessarily drunk this time around & the update last night showed the models all slowing the system down some. With this storm being only 36hrs away and nobody wanting to brand a definite forecast, that shows that anything is game here. (even the high end)
Just take the composite of both. In that case, the NAM is off by 17%, so still a crippling heavy snow for a large part of KY.
If these maps were to hold up this time tomorrow, even I would have to try to kick the football.
lol Bubba….How far you gonna kick it!?
Whether kicking the ball….. or Lucy’s hand, you win either way 😉
I think I married Lucy….
Agreed
What time does the next GFS come out???
Don’t worry about the temps today and Saturday. I remember on January 1st of 84 it being in the 70s and two days later had over a foot. Then in April of 87 I think it was in the 80s in EKY and snowing starting to snow in Cincy and we ended up with nearly 16 inches by Monday morning. I’m with ROLO on this the temps bring the juice. Party ON!.
I read how Dallas/Ft Worth was once in the low 80s, then had a near-blizzard dumping several inches snow. The dynamics may have to be just right, but it can and does happen.
Sure hope you’re right Snowcat. I love the way the NAM looks, but I realize that probably won’t be close to what really happens. OH well……This girl has pretty much given up on a good snowfall for this year……So if it happens I will be estatic!
12Z NAM looks very similar.. completely hammers Pikeville with over a foot of snow. Leaves the Corbin/London areas in 8-12″ of snow, LEX in up to 6″ of snow. Very sharp cutoff to the snow along I-64 corridor. Hmm.. let’s check out GFS now…
Care to share a link to a new snowfall prediction map?
If the NAM verifies, Bowling Green could see as much as 6″ of snow. I posted a new blog entry to discuss it a little further.
I still want to see what GFS does with this around 11:30 this morning when the run is available. It has been doing much lighter amounts than NAM so far.
IF big word, but IF Lexington were to get anything over 3″ I would be ecstatic. 5 or 6 inches would be even better. I would love to see at least one good snow cover this winter. Anything more than that at this late date would just be gravy.
well, NAM is siding with GFS….puts I-64 & points North&west of 64/75 out on the bench. Thx for playing, lol. Have fun in the snow east & south ky!
I am in Paintsville. I look at these maps, and it makes my bladder very aggressive. Man, alive. If this pans out..
Corydon IN area if you guys can help?
right now, grab some bench….will let you know if the coach desides we are worthy of being let back in the game.
Unless this low shifts way North and West Corydon IN. will get nothing. Flurries if that. Louisville won’t get but an inch. KY/TN and KY/WV Borders are the sweet spots as of now. As C-Biv said above NAM came north last night, but has since backed off. Still time for shift, but not counting on it.
Its just not our year here in Louisville. Even last year we miss some golden opportunities. It would be funny although if the gfs switch to the nam solution.
I guess the 0z will be out last hope to scrap a 3″ snowfall out of this.
Well thats not the response I wanted lol but thanks for the honesty, but any chance the storm will shift North, Henry on Accuweather thinks so.
always a chance…the storm is JUST getting fired up over Texas…I do notice quite a precipitation shield building well north of the Low pressure . I think if this does shift, it has a better chance going north, because of such a rapid intensification, which is usually an indicator of storms turning more north than east. But, we shall see.
Okay I will keep my fingers crossed and continue to pray to the snow gods.
Any thoughts on Harrison County? Can a brother get 2-3 inches?
You know how snow works in KY. It is too early to be in the starting lineup. You get benched just when you thought you were going to get playing time. I would rather not be in the sweet spot just yet. How many times do these storms stray a good 60 – 100 mile last day North – North West movement. Wait and see. I think it might not be until later today early tomorrow until we know for sure. I just feel a big surprise coming for someone.
If you live out of state please stress that point. There are many counties in Indiana & Ky that share the same names. Is Harrison county in Ohio,In,Ky,Wv.orTn?
Teach, I apologize if you live in Ky. The only Harrison counties I know about is In&Ohio.
have to say with ever run as we get closer the models are going towards snow rather than a miss.
look for ALERT FULL MODE for e/se ky by BAILEY soon.
Hey Rolo, or anyone else that wants to chime in, which models are you watching? Are there any models showing accumulation amounts besides what CB has showing?
I would say this one is set in stone..To many consistent model runs showing the same thing..Look out parts of Eastern ky..Slammer time..lol
I hope NKY can get in on the SNOW LOVE!
I still think that the low will move northwest ever so slightly. I honestly do. Also, I really don’t think that the precip shield is going to be as slim as is shown on the models. This is a gulf storm and it will likely have a significant precip shield to the northwest.
FWIW: Henry at Accu does agree about a more northern shift potential:
his snowfall map gives almost all of KY something. Puts Lou Metro on 2-44″ range. this is updated as of 9:30am today.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/latest-snow-map-on-the-storm-this-weekend/61717
2-4″ lol
The thing that would cause a northwest shift would be if the low deepens and wraps up tighter. And so far this morning, the model runs have been showing a slightly weaker low. So that’s why so far we aren’t seeing a NW shift in the track on the models.
The cutoff looks VERY sharp. You go from nothing in Loserville to a half-foot in Danville to a foot or more in Corbin. It’s a REALLY sharp cutoff.
Based on recent storms… the precip. shield in the modeling is over-done and we’ll see more spotty precip. actually occur. That’s just based on recent history. But.. you could be correct. This storm could suck up more moisture. Your thoughts may be spot-on when this is said and done.
First time I’ve ever believed an accuweatger forecast. He literally may be right.
80 percent of snow storms that are forecast to hit Louisville end up missing or being all rain….
100% of snow storms that are not forcast to hit Louisville end up NOT HITTING LOUISVILLE. So be it…I just don’t feel it.
1 inch at best…..
The NAM is still working the data; in my opinion, has shifted a little bit south with 12z run. Still looking like the ‘big one’ for many.
My ‘official’ first call comes out after 4pm today.
Prelim First Call for what it’s worth right now…
Louisville 2-3″
Lexington 4-6″
E’town 3-5″
Jackson KY 5-7″
Pikeville 7-11″
This will be a very wet snow, mostly occurring during the daylight hours on Sunday. Some of this snow could be subjected to melting. That’s why some of my amounts may appear conservative.
Thank You!
Hey I’ll take 3 in E-Town. I’m not greedy 😉
Would someone care to make a wild guess at the Lake Cumberland Area’s snow totals? More specifically Monticello…Thelma Lou & myself have a hot date lined up 🙂 Please & thank you!
i think u see evening runs shw COLDER air working in. man if temps was right we be talking 12 plus easy. stay tuned.
TX MIKE S!!!
Rolo, what can we expect for Harlan County?
Hrs 54 on the GFS Eastern Ky still gets slammed..
Just walked outside here in Wolfe Co. and they have just treated the roads?!?!?! Not sure what they are thinking but bring on the snow!!
They have in Knox as well i’m afraid it wil be all washed away by the rain
Wonder if there’s a chance any of this can fall as freezing rain before it turns into snow..Would make for a bad scenaro..
If you look at what Jim Cantore is saying on his tweets and remember March of 1993 this sounds very similiar.
Not really a good trend in the models right now for Central and Western Kentucky right now…Eastern KY still looks decent but is a little warm on the 12z GFS
Warmer?..Looks a little colder to me..
12Z GFS is slightly less than NAM with totals, but it is a little colder than yesterday. 2-4″ for LEX area, 7-12″ for eastern KY.
Bring it.. just bring something.
would you care to take a guess at lc area totals please?
I still am convinced this will trend northwest with a larger precip shield is gonna be much larger than shown. Here’s my thoughts:
Lou: 2-4″
From etown to lburg to lex: 4-8″
Most of Jackson warning area: 8-12″
Ill have a map out later.
I live in E’town and need to be in Lexington for a 2 p.m. meeting. I am thinking that I may need to leave Saturday and go on up. What time is the snow portion supposed to start/
My meeting is Sunday at 2 p.m.
hey WES u going get a good one my friend.
hmm didnt i say models will go colder,hmmmmmmmmmm
Already got my plans to get some bread and milk…gonna make sure we have our candles and stuff out. Heavy wet snow can be bad. We’ve been asking for this…so here we go!!!
Right now I’m thiking most of eastern KY has a great shot at 6 or more inches. Lexington and Bowling green should be in a buffer zone of 2-6 with nothing in Louisville and Covington. The upper low track is critical, I Think it’s a hair to far south on the GFS. Also convection over the south should be a concern since it could cut off the mositure coming north.
True about the convection. The SPC is giving the Gulf Coast a slight risk for severe wx on Sat.
Of course, much of January had severe t-storms/tornadoes in KY, now a big snow for us in late Feb. Nature is as fickle as ever.
Good point about the convection issue blocking moisture transport.
Nevertheless, a deformation zone should still set up over some part of Kentucky, probably east central, east, southeast, hard to say right now. That’s where I would expect the greatest accumulation to occur, as long as warm air does not get sucked up too much into the system. The colder air should win out. If convection does occur, look for dry slot to occur that could impact totals. Good point Mitch.
To rolo, Wxman, or anyone who wants to chime in: could this switch over from rain to snow give us a false hope for a big snow storm and we end up with more rain then a little dusting of the white stuff?
Local Mets in Louisville say the models have shifted south… Looks like nothing for us….
Good.
this is perfect for central ky when the low takes its north shift it will turn a heavy snow to a bigtime snow for central areas. NEVER underestimate the nw trend! even without it i think the lex area will get a nice 4-7 inch snow
Wonder when we can expect Winter Storm Watches to come out?
I’d say as early as this evening or at the latest tomorrow morning.
National weather service will likely issue one by 4 pm. A winter storm watch is issued 24-36 hrs in advance of a snowfall 4 inches or more. They will likely be going back and forth on what counties to include this afternoon within the offices then corrdinate with other offices. My best guess on watches ( subject to 12z euro) would be a line from Bowling Green and Lexington southeast. Marginal 4 inch criteria on the northwest side.
Hey guys in Pikeville I hope I finally see some snow,well I hope we all do.
Guys any predictions on snow fall for Pikeville???? Wxman Mitch Rollo bubba?
If the stars align for this event, you folks have a chance to get thumped with 12+ inches. Based on the trees, hollers, power lines, etc- I think you might not want the stars to align 😉
I still can not shake the warm air, so look forward to clarification by CB. I can see totals knocked in half of current models, but have not seen the newest NAM and GFS yet.
CRYSTAL looking like 8-12 possible.
acccuweather has us in good spot for snow http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/latest-snow-map-on-the-storm-this-weekend/61717
weather.com doesnt looks as promising for central and southeastern ky , but northeastern part of ky and west virginia does good http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/exclusive-winter-weather-watch_2011-11-15
IF the 12z NAM verified parts of EKY would see well over 12” more like 18”. the cutoff to the nw is a sharp one, but my call is for pikeville to win with 16-20 inches jackson 10-16 Lexington 5-10 Richmond 8-12 Georgetown 3-5
Put the pipe down 😉
Don’t like the look of Todds’s map
Why no tweets yet from CB? Does he have another job besides the blog?? 😉
Seeing the SPC giving parts of the Gulf Coast the possibility of severe weather with convection screams 1993……this is taking on the look but not as extreme….I’m guessing this is what we’ve been waiting on for a couple of years. Hopefully!
Thanks guys I love snow but love power too.It will change I guess like always.
Love the blog, but I’m not buying the big totals at all. Just by looking outside my window and feeling the ground outside my house, I’m gonna say a dusting to 1″.
I also want to make it clear that I’m a teacher and I’m using reverse psychology to try and coax a large snow. Come on snow. Oops, I mean, we’re not going to get any snow.
Just saw Chris on WSAZ. His first call map has a lot of Eastern KY in the 6-12 inch range and further south in the 8-14 inch range.