Good Friday afternoon. My confidence for a major weekend winter storm is increasing. This storm has the potential to cause some major issues across much of the eastern half of the state due to the heavy, wet nature of the snow. We continue to run in Winter Storm Threat mode Saturday night and Sunday… but an upgrade to Alert isn’t too far away.
The midday models show a crushing snowstorm for much of the state…
NAM
GFS
Those maps aren’t very different from one another and you also get an idea of the amazingly sharp cutoff on the northern edge of the snow shield. It’s too early to tell where this sets up, but 50 miles could mean the difference in nothing and 10″ of snow.
If the totals on those maps are realized… power outages would become widespread, roads would be closed and trees would come down. That is IF we actually get that much snow. It might be a good idea for folks across the eastern half of the state to start taking some precautions to be on the safe side.
First Call For Snowfall map comes out later today. Take care.
Blah! It was looking somewhat decent for Scioto County and now..maybe an inch.maybe 3..BLAH!!
Wow. Glad we have oak and apple piled up for the woodstove. Looking more likely.
Boo!! I want some too in Southern Indiana!!
Wow. I just peed my pants.
All I can say is Wow! Looks as if my region in Southeastern, Ky will get slammed! If this all pans out, mind you.
Looking for Chris to go into alert mode and NWS to issue a WSW, both by this evening.
Any gamblers here? Wanna’ take bets on whether or not LMK will issue Winter Storm Watch this afternoon with the 16:00 package?
I say…No, not yet =-)
My money is maybe before bedtime tonight, but not the 1400.
I wager there is going to be more rain than expected.
I hop not as the pretreatment they did would go to waste
well by looking at those snow maps. it would be smart if all 3 offices in the area did…
I see Henry on accuweather showing 8-10 of all of east ky…a cat 3 storm..on his winterstorm chart…
Joe Bastardi insists that the center moves farther north than whats being touted, instead of northern Ga..into east Tn.. (IF)that happens se.ky…my backyard would see more rain than snow…blah…
so im afraid to get on board the snowtrain just yet…although i sure want to… to many past let downs…but the snowfall maps above have me in a 8-10″ zone…I’LL TAKE IT AND RUN FAST WITH IT!!!!!!!!!… LOL… 🙂
Bastardi is my friend right now along with CB’s comment on “50 miles could be the difference in 10″ or 0″”. Louisville currently in the 0-1″. If Bastardi is correct we could see a little more than an inch. Not expecting much here so it won’t be a bust to me if we don’t see snow.
A WSW is generally issued 36 hours before a major event. Therefore, they should issue it today with the 16:00 package. However, I’m betting that we don’t see anything until the 4:00 package Saturday.
With the 12z Euro out now I’d say no.
Looks like I lose. LMK is issuing a Winter Storm Watch for some of the area.
So, what would it take to push the system a bit more north/west? Anything we can look at on the radars or satellites? Just looking at the radar, it seems the whole state would be involved in a good size event.
WOW!!! Wolfe County is really in it. LET IT SNOW… LET IT SNOW… LET IT SNOW….
Based on the composite of the two models, E Ky would get knocked into the dark ages for several days at least. There is even a CHANCE for a Bubba buster in central KY. The wild card is the warm air, so not a given. That said, anyone with 6″ or more snow from this should not be surprised if the power goes out.
E Ky already has a saturated ground and stressed structures and trees from the 2009 event. CB is on the money as far as E KY, if this pans out and warm air does not cut into the totals and or, the system speeds through quicker than expected.
I will be happy to not see a Bubba buster with heavy snow. Me likes power 🙂
Is it time to get excited?
I was just thinking that myself for mercer county. lol
pretreating roads like crazy here in knox county !!!!!!!!
Yup.. just watch those tax dollars fly into the wind!
Either run I would take, but I would prefer the Nam.
I have to go to the grocery either way but for sure I am getting grilling food. No power = grilled food by candle light and a warm fire…..Yum….
Here we go!!!! Can’t wait for CBs first call map!!!!
well folks we waited for a decade for one these bad boys top even be in the possibliies of happening.
and you see ole BAILEY BOY saying TREES DOWN, POWERLINES DOWN ROADS CLOSED and I harbon back to here it comes EASTERN KY!!!
OLD SCHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL!!!
disclaimer i dont want lose power and dont think I will, but man that gives me the hibby geepbjies, or however u speel it.
now it not mattwer if it going hit, but just how much and track as that could cause sizures from many.lol that said im pretty confident models are spot on and this evening will just have to get a EXACT AMOUNT down.
ok im 38 years old and folks I LOVE THIS CRAP, its a NATURAL HIGH!!! ok ill shut up, but listen if this misses now WE WILL NEVER GET A BIG SNOW AGAIN,
in closing I wish I own a GROCERY STORE, I BE SPIKING PRICES AND GETTING RICH!!!
Woooooooo Rolo! Like your excitement. I’m right there with ya brother. Bring it on! 🙂
Rolo Dont you live in Anderson county? I am in south mercer
ROLO I am pumped and thats putting it lightly….hoping this one goes Old School and then some!
not going to happen.
Winter is coming…(finally)!
no im in CLAY CO, JOYCE.
ok ill bet 100-80 WSW are issued by midnite, i think NWS and others are still to scred to pull the triiger.
36 hours out though they got issue something dont they.
ahh heck TIM and ANDY get aboard, what the heck can happen is we be p offed if we dont get it.
fact is just look at winter and tracks, areas that in drought getting heavy rain with this, the FLIP HAS SWITCHED.
I really hope Powell County gets in on the higher totals. I would love for my kids to experience snow “old school” as I did growing up.
Rolo you will be weeks getting out of Clay county…..lol
god western KY totals went down a lot they were up to a foot now barely 4 inches where i live but i looked at one model and it still has 10+ inches where i live hopefully the whole state or 90% of the state gets hit with 10+ inches.
Yeah! The other 10% ( Louisville ) gets 1″….
If I get 8′-10′ I will go CRAZY,,If we get nothing, I will go CRAZY…just two different types of CRAZY…..I think we will, even though it has been on the radar this week, nobody has been building it up really that much..just saying keep an eye out,,,we have said the BIG SNOW will come when nobody is calling for it…well, were are almost 36 hrs out and still no definite forecast as of yet!!! SO COME ON BIG SNOW
At least with one crazy you have power 😉
This post is sooooo true….crazy either way but I prefer crazy with snow 🙂
So no. Snow. For Louisville. Figures.
If pans out, the cut-off will break more than Louisville hearts, since the band is tight and will likely move. Seems the only constant is E Ky so far.
The maps are interesting, but the only thing that has really been accurate by default are the actual results. The models have been bad for snow projections. Still, the models have tended to blow up around now, but if they stay the course later tomorrow….
The other issue is warm air has been understated all winter, so what makes this different? I do not know (I do know that).
Bubba, You think Mercer county will receive anything?
Seems “sane” to take the average of the maps above as a best case and then ding the result by 50% due to the trend and that would be the more likely case. Except for higher elevations, of course.
I honestly have no clue, since the rolling trend this winter suggests the models understate the warm air, but are the main data we have. Hence my guesstimate.
IF the trend is not a factor, some people could get thumped real hard.
For Mercer, looks like the range of the maps would be 4″ to 7″, but the trend would knock it down to 2″ to 4″. This can and probably will change, so wondering what CB does for his snow map- will the trend come into play?
Wondering the same Joyce. We are right on the line for some major totals.
So, everybody still thinking 4-6 inches for Lexington?
Current composite of the models say yes, but if we offset for actual trend- about half of that. Ditto for the whole map, except for higher elevations.
This could be the most darned if you do, or don’t snow map calls for mets in a long time. Models say “yes”, but the trend says “Oh, really?!”.
Still, if the warm air trend is not a factor, some should be careful what they ask for 😉
hows it looking for clark co rolo??
Looks like Laurel County ius in for a big snow too. If I am looking right…isn’t it showing somewhere from 8″ to as high as 15″ when putting both models together? Someone help me out. Come on Blizzard Tim, we are practically neighbors here. LOL Bring it on!!
THINK SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Beware the rain if we get no rain we get half of what those maps are showing if it rains we get a Quarter or less IMO been burned to many times
AKA “the trend” 😉
Looks like Laurel County is in for a big snow too. If I am looking right…isn’t it showing somewhere from 8″ to as high as 15″ when putting both models together? Someone help me out. Come on Blizzard Tim, we are practically neighbors here. LOL Bring it on!!
THINK SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’m with you think SNOW!!!
sad NWS in JKL says rain for us
Sunday: Rain, possibly mixed with snow showers. High near 40. North northeast wind between 8 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Brian Goode WAVE TV
JUST IN- NWS is considering a Winter Storm WATCH for portions of our viewing area (southern-most counties) for this weekend event. We do NOT know which counties would be included just yet. We will know by 4pm.
I don’t why cause we aren’t getting any. 🙁
Start taking precautions? Now that gives me the heebie jeebies! However, in 1993 I was out of electric for 12 days! TWC is showing it missing us here in southern Ky. Thank you Chris!
I would guess that Jackson will probably issue a winter storm watch for most if not all of their coverage area, I would suspect other NWS such as Louisville will issue a winter storm watch for some of their counties as it appears snow with a accumulation of more than 4 inches will stretch to around Bowling green. Just a opinion, I am not a met, just speaking from past experiences.
Just noticed the alert from NWS LMK
Thinking about getting an extra tank for the grill and doing a practice run on the emergency heater. I am waiting to see what Mercer Co. gets projected to be. Seems like it is about time to have the models start coming into more agreement….definately going to be a wild ride for a lot of folks. Interesting that most people I talk to have no idea about this possibility. We don’t watch TV much. Are the local mets talking about it yet? Thanks!
… ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY…
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ON SATURDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL KENTUCKY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DESPITE INITIALLY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT… SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THE HIGHEST TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER… THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW.
THIS SNOW MAY LEAD TO TRAVEL PROBLEMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BE SURE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AND USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND.
12z ECMWF much further south a miss for all but far southeastern KY. Bah humbug.
Models go boom, once again when it counts? Who would have thunk it!! 😉
i knew it would that’s why i didn’t get exicited oh well didn’t want to be without power anyways…..
My feelings too 🙂
for some reason I dont think you gotta worry about it going south…if anything probably alittle north…
I hope you’re right, BlizzardTim. I really hope we get a decent amount of snow here in LEX.
That’s great news. That means it’s time to hit the grocery store, and dig out the snow shovel from the back of the garage. Then log onto Google and learn how to make a snowman.. because the big one is coming.
LOL! Good one for what’s it worth I hope this makes two big misses for the EC this week.
Bring it on!!!!
I think we should all jump on the JMA bandwagon..at least it shares the wealth to all of KY, lol
http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif
That would be nice. Not sure how accurate the JMA has been this year on precip totals, but this, and Bastardi saying Low to move futher north gives us here in Lousiville something to hope for. I am just glad we are not in the sweetspot at the moment. Won’t be as much as a let down when it doesn’t happen
Major bust? 12Z euro says yes
Was the model ever on board? I though it had the event far east in the first place?
Well Chris is being quoted onn Accu Weather in this link it showed the Blog his pic and quoted him Chris you are in the big time lol
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/weekend-snowstorm-to-target-oh/61704
Wave 3 appears to be suggesting a more SE KY event for most of the action. It is a good read (their blog), but not what most will want to see (if a snow fan).
Five different models all showing a different track for the low. HHHMMM…No wonder everyone is confused. GFS has been in line for a few days. I am not sure about the others.
This winter, they always do that when it comes to “go time” for snow events.
Best of luck to CB posting a snow map for this. My “take the composite of the maps and knock off 50% for trend” seems to make more sense for now.
50%really i think thats a bit much imo
I love how one model has one bad run and everyone flips out. Has everyone already forgotten about how the NAM threw a shoe yesterday and did something similar? If the majority of the models show bust at 18z or maybe even 00z then go cry about another Bust. Until then, just chill out a bit.
Joe Bastardi taylors to his audience up north..He does have a pay site..LOL…Euro is wrong on this one…It caved in to the GFS 2 days ago and will cave again…
Oh please…let Laurel County get some snow! Our sleds are ready to go!!
server overload !! lol
XNAX for marsha and several other, stay calm peeps. lolllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
rolo i dont it i’m am calm it would just melt off in a day or too anyway….
We r calm never expected anything much so no disappointment
andy i agree i just never got my hopes up anyway…..
trust in the NAM as it best this close in,
the same NAM that was supposedly drunk a couple hours ago? lol =-)
the nws in charleston is not playing around this go around and true to form a WINTER STORM WATCH is now out from sunday morning through sunday evening for the counties in their forecast region for the potential for at least 4 to 8 inches of heavy wet snow. this was issued at 3pm
Well, if we’re going to call them “models,” I think I’ll pick the one that was on the runway last night. She had a real colorful dress on and she had a lot of light blue and pink painted over east central and eastern Kentucky. Those are some pretty colors. She goes by Car”nam” Electra, but I think she has the power to take electricity and drain it all for herself. Interesting ability. The good news is that even if that were to happen, the rescue crews would jump in and have power rightly restored within a couple of days, given how it’s going to warm up right after the main event.
In other words, I’ll take the foot snowfall if we can get it. Losing power wouldn’t be the best situation in the world, but I got plenty of food to make it. Would be something to talk about for years to come, I’m sure.
Especially if you have a model to share it! Tahee….. 🙂
U got me roflmbo Aaron
WINTER STORM WATCH just issued for SE KY including Laurel/Whitley counties until Sunday 7:00 p.m.
Winter Storm Watches will be posted within the hour.
If any electricity goes out Sunday, hopefully it’ll be the electricity that powers the Euro model servers.. because that thing is trash.
Isn’t it the Euro that normally has problems with southwest systems?
Yeah that is what I understand as well, that the Euro holds the system to the southwest to long which can create timing and phasing issues, I believe I have seen Chris refer to this bias on more than one occasion.
Think it had this system in the Atlantic at one time.
Maybe Rolo meant to say the EURO was drunk then..ha
Winter Storm Watch out of Jackson KY NWS office for nearly all of its warning area.
What about us other folks? Aint we got any watches? 🙂
And NOT the wimpy wimpy advisory type.
Madison County is under a Winter Storm Watch now. 🙂
Well, even if it misses or downgrades, this is our first winter storm watch in three years, I do believe, that is not a thunder or wind storm.
Bebba, what are your thoughts on Columbia? Do we have a good chance of snow? If so how much do you think? What are the rest of you thinking for my area?? Would love some feedback.
Go nam!!!!!
yea i meant NAM, if u read my post today ALL DAY i said NAM was best within 48 hours. yea i sure did say that.
i dids say the SNOWFGALL MAP from NAM last nite was off, bailey posted it at 2 or so this morning, but as we get closer the NAM will be ur friend.
as far as drunk, im working on it!!!
WSW OUT FOR PART OF LMK COVERAGE AREA AS WELL…
within 48 hours the NAM IS UR FRIEND, watch it POP tonite, if it shows last nite run tonite then u better RUN,RUN,RUN.
New Nam likes a nice snow for most of KY, south east ky is still the favorite of all.
Not most. I still say that the storm will shift northwest on 0z runs, but who knows. I just want at least 3″.
Any link to provide us with a look?
Here is total QPF but keep in mind some of this will be rain, but it demonstrates where the heaviest amounts of moisture will fall.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F17%2F2012+18UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p36&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=069&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
LMK needs to bump those watched west…. Louisville will get at least an advisory
Did you see Larkin? The NAM just pulled a GFS! AT hours 36-42 the Low is headed due northeast & at hours 42-48 it desides to do a 180 & head due southeast??? Am I missing some sort of northern piece of energy influence?!! lol
What does that; sorry im not a weather guru lol.
in my personal opinion it means the 18z NAM is junk. Throw it out.
Yeah I saw that. That isnt going to happen. The 0z NAM is still king in my mind, because it takes the low more north than the average, but also continues to keep it moving northeast as the new surface low develops up there.
agreed…0z is what I am really interested to see tonight.
I am praying super hard that we get a lot of snow
NWSL forecast calling for about 4 inches in russell county however no mention of accumulation in neighboring pulaski. whats up with that.
I believe Pulaski county is covered by Jackson NWS
Personally I think anyone wanting snow, be it 1″ or 15″, is a bit on the disturbed side.
Fayette county is in the winter weather watch. Just saw on the weather ch.
Guys these models have pretty much stayed the same for over a day now. Odd as it may seem, not much of a shift at all. Old school coming for someone. Looks like models are settling in on track. Rolo it’s coming your way.
This might be a Bread Milk and Egg run lol.
East Frankfort on the edge of WSW, At this point hoping for a northern banded area of snow to give Frankfort more than 2in.
Every potential large event, Lexington is always on a line (except ’98) but we were not really even in the game then, based on the forecast.
Birds is dancin n im goin to put out my perlimary call for snow. Louisville-6 in
Lex-17in
GTown-2 in
London-22.25 in
Hazard-27in
Owen co-0
Frankfort-1.5in
Lawrenceburg- 2.5 in
WYMT Mountain News is making fun of this blog. Saying we are all to hyped for getting 4″ of snow. He said no one in Kentucky is going to see 12″ or more. Most he says is going to fall is maybe 8″ and that is in the mountain area. I can’t believe he laughed at how much snow this blog is showing. Hope the whole state gets 21″ LOL Would do him good. Hahaha
Pretty stupid to say what he did. Nobody on here is claiming we are definitely going to get a foot or two of snow. People are just getting excited about what the models are showing. If anything, there are more people on here downplaying the models that say big snow is on the way than people who actually believe we are going to get hammered. CB’s first call totals will be out soon!
Hope they eat their words with a huge helping of hot sauce!
For those that want to see the latest forecasted snowfall maps:
18z NAM snowfall map here: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
18z GFS snowfall map here: http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_84HR.gif
For those that want to see the latest weather model snowfall maps here are the links.
18z NAM snowfall map: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
18z GFS snowfall map: http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_84HR.gif
Oops…double post.
Well I don’t like either… a dusting for me!
My ‘official’ First Call is out. It’s normally my last call as well. Text only. Map coming soon…I’m not much of an artist, taking a little longer than I would like.
i would say a general 4-8″ of slushly wet, melty snow will be the common theme..start out with 6 or 7 inches and cause its so wet,slushy it just compacts into 3 or 4 inches…
BlizzardTim, did the ky chat room close?
Okay Wxman, you know what I’m gonna ask. How much are we looking for?
Any one want to give me a for fun guess on snow amounts in berea??? I am praying for big snow ….come on rolo….help a lady out here ….lol
berea looks good i’d say its in my current bullseye, 12”+
nws in wilmington says 1-3 inches even into nky for areas south of the ohio river, this is good news for cKY folks wanting a biggie
listen if we had a OLDER SCHOOL last couple weks TEMP wise we be talking EPIC as to last decade with this storm.
man dam warm weather..
that said we can get close or below freezing we might yet get a OLD SCHOOL.
right now im looking at 5-10 inches area wide as far as on ground.
some u might say what else u want, I say OLD SCOOL is much bigger and colder.
fact is model dont take in affect the warem air we have had and ground temp folks, only way we get a MONSTER is it slows down,,
but hey 5-10 incxhes is GREEEEERRRREEEEAAAATTTTTTTT!! and listen u never know when it put breas on, fact is 2 days ago they said it be moved out sunday morning. it now aLL DAY SUNDAY.
IM EXCITED!!!
snow don’t stay too long….too close to spring break!!!
Just saw Chris on WSAZ. His first call map has a lot of Eastern KY in the 6-12 inch range and further south in the 8-14 inch range. Lx was in the 3-6, Gryson 3-6, Portsmouth, Oh 1-3…Athens, OH pretty much nothing
No watch or even advisory so far by NWS Nashville, just a SWS. They are indicating the Cumberland Plateau could get a couple of inches.
If the recent NAM has it’s way Nashville could get a little something, but the GSF would leave maybe a trace. Nashville hasn’t had a big snow in a while. Even last year only had a lot of little to moderate snows – including a white Christmas. It was south central TN along the Alabama line that got up to 16 inches from same storm that shut down Atlanta.