Good Friday evening to one and all. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for much of central and eastern Kentucky for late Saturday night into Sunday for the potential for several inches of heavy, wet snow.
Here’s the watch…
I’m sure the NWS will be monitoring the northern edge of the accumulating snow and will add or subtract some counties. There will probably be an advisory added just north of the watch or eventual warning.
My First Call For Snowfall map isn’t holding a whole lot back…
There is going to be one heck of a sharp cutoff on the northern edge of the accumulating snow. Pinpointing exactly where that will be is going to be a tough call and may not be known until we can actually see the radar Sunday.
Areas across eastern and southeastern Kentucky are in line for the POTENTIAL for a major snowstorm that could bring down trees and power lines. The southern edge of the 6″-12″ swath may be impacted by when rain changes to snow early Sunday. That would have affect totals… especially near the Tennessee and Virginia borders.
I will be updating the snowfall map as we get closer to the storm, so you can be sure there will be some changes to the lines and the forecast totals.
Have a great evening and take care.
Trend North!
Just to put everyone at ease… I am now in Chicago. Let the snowstorm take shape! I’m sure that you guys will get something. It always happens… never fail. Hopefully I didn’t just jinx you guys!
ok CB first dont make excuses as far as well if it does this totyals want be as big. u got a ROUGH JOB ole buddy. us true weather watchers know this.
u dont have to make alternative plans. put it out there and let it ride!!!!
1-3″ for Frankfort. That’s not much to get excited about. Think I’ll give up on snow and get ready for Spring.
If we get more than 1in. in Frankfort thats the biggest snow of the year?? Think Banding to the north 🙂
That’s the truth. I’m hoping for a surprise. 🙂
I posted my First Call in text format earlier…
I just finished the First Call map too….I’m a bit less optimistic for southern totals and a little more bullish for northern totals.
Ugh. This map is so disappointing. I want to see central kentucky (meaning ALL of it — all of Fayette county) out of that 1-3″ area. Every single time the last few years we’ve been in that area we’ve gotten squat. I absolutely hate being in the 1″ range :/
I would love to see the top side of that call (6″) for Madison County. I need to go dig my boots out of the closet now.
Etown to Maysville less than 1”
Shelbyville to Gtown 2-3”
Lexington to Ashland 4-8
Danville to Jackson 8-12”
south east of here 12”+
i think 1-3 in fayette would be quite unlikey looking several angles, but esp the surface track of the low, this is damm near perfect for CKY
this makes me feel much better 🙂
Ugh, no! I’m in northern Fayette. I don’t want to see the 1-3″ over my area! Move that 3-6″ up a lil’ bit! haha
Im in SE Fayette. The good side of the 1-3/3-6 line. Wouldn’t take much, maybe 30 miles, to get the 6-12 line to my area. I’m gonna pull as hard as i can to get it up here, lol 🙂
I’ll try too. Maybe we can get it up here! 😉
1, 2, 3 PULL!
wow..nothing for Louisville….but I’ve waited ALL WEEK! Grrrrrr….
Louisville is still a player Bill…the 2nd call should have us in the 2-4″ Imo
how much for knott co.
I’m hoping CB is too far south with that map, cuz 1-3″ in the LEX metro ain’t much to get excited about! I’m looking for that 6-12″ to move up here!
Nothing for me, but I’m not surprised. I never really had much hope unless the storm went north and the rain changed quickly.
Looking at the lines Chris has drawn on his first call map, is there some potential for the very SE corner (Bell,Letcher,Harlan counties) to stay rain longer and not get as much accumulation?
I hope it trends a little more south, LOL. 6 inches or more of wet heavy snow isn’t my idea of a good time. If it was the fluffy kind of snow, I would be much happier! Granted, snow is snow. Us snow lovers are thrilled to finally get a storm. However, the reality is too much of it will cause power outages and such. Some people may love having no electric. Not me!
That was like Dallas/Ft Worth with their 2010 event. A foot of very wet snow, barely below freezing. Lots of carport roofs collapsed – onto vehicles. Century old trees toppled or maimed. Of course tens of thousands without power (and heat). Yes, one has to be careful what they wish for 😉
So knott will get alot.
I just want to hear those magical words on Monday morning: “There will be no school in….” as our wet-blanket Central Office took President’s Day as the make-up for January 13th. Retribution in the form of uncontrollable, delightful WINTER weather! Bring it ON!
Already chopping away at my 6-12 due to rain. Figues. Jim c. Just gave 2-4. Like I said earlier wet slushy melty snow !
Is there any chance to see a thundersnow out of this?
An occasional clap of thunder perhaps not out of the question with any heavier snows. Probably nothing like the Blizzard of 93, though; at times, we (east Tennessee) had lightning/thunder every few minutes at times. Some distant flashes were likely transformers going belly up.
is Knott getting 4-6 like Jim C said or 6-12 like Chris B said.
Take your pick, you could be getting anywhere from 0-12″
With his snowfall map, has Chris gone into alert mode?
Wave 3 gives 2-4 for our area.
Jim Cantore from The Weather Channel was on NBC Nightly News discussing the snow storm. He had a map showing Jackson, KY with 6-10 inches for Sunday. He also pointed out snow wouldn’t really begin to accumulate until around 9 A.M. It must be something to hear KY and WV mentioned on the national news.
It odd Chris B map is different from Jim C
No its not 2different people they see things differently
Realize, that Jim C is being Conservative and will post more map and likely totals will increase. being two days away there always a chance the Cb’s totals change as well!
Funny how everyone on the blog is forecasting higher totals for their own area, LOL!!
What are your thoughts about the snow around Bristol Tennessee the forecasters here won’t even give an idea of if we’ll even get any snow or if we’ll get a lot of snow?
NWS Morristown is indicating 1-3 inches in your area, at least for now.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/
I was not too far from you, lived in Morristown as a kid.
This will be a Nowcast storm, anyone including METS thinking they can show where the heavy snow sets up this early are only fooling themselves!
In Jan 1996 this same type of storm hammered southern Indiana with 1 foot plus snow when 24 hours before METS called for a dusting in that area!
Yup-just like Jan .’94. Big snowstorm called a week ahead, then by that Sunday evening it was “an inch or less for the L-Ville Metro”-then wake up to 15″+ of thundersnow @ 5:30am next morning. You’d think they’d have learned from that one. Also Feb ’98…I walked to work nearby @ 9am, because it wasn’t suposed to be more than an inch or so all day and by lunchtime, we had about 8″ and our store closed for the day. My hubby had just gotten home from his concrete job so at least I didn’t have to walk home in that heavy wet mess! 🙂
WBKO 13 going with 1-3 inches at this time in Bowling Green.
WTVF 5 calling for an inch in Nashville.
JIM C spot on with 6-10.
fact is if we had a REAL WINTER temp wise we be looking at a MONSTARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.
that said its not OLD SCHOOL but it will be a GOOOOOOD SNOW.
Jim C has been known to scare away storms, so when he endorses a certain area it might not be a good thing??
JIM CAUDWELL not to be JIM CANTORE AKA JIM C i just posted about.
WYMT guy going on alot will melt, the MODELS are not picking up on ground temps.
as far as JIM AT WYMT sayint 4-6 and BAILEY 6-12 well it all same, BAILEY just thinks there more potential for bigger amounts.
CAULDWELL said amounts could be muccccch higher if temps get little colder.
I agree and unless somebody can convince why CB’s totals will be on the high side for anyone beyond higher elevation areas in the east, please explain. Really, since I do not see it, but could be missing something.
Seems will be on the low end due to warm air and ground. By the time things get where they need to be, most of the main moisture could be beating up on VA.
What do you all think?
Somebody posted they were dogging this blog, but they do not seem the smart alack type.
I see knott is in 6-12 I am wrong
Rolo you are a betting man make your predictions for me and let it ride lol!!!!!!!!
I am so excited for whatever Morehead gets! I bought two sleds weeks ago and have yet to take them out of my suburban. Hoping for enough to call off school and get some sledding in with my boys.
Next model run will be the nam around 9:30 correct?
Yep
CRYSTAL i think u will see 8 plus inhes, now it can go alot higher if we hit lottery ticket. i mean im confident on that total but like i said colder air/ slower storm and could go higher.
Thank you Dear.
role my friend what is morgan co getting?????
I don’t think ground temperature will be as big of a player as some are thinking, if it snows fast and accumulates quickly, it will overcome the warmer ground once covered. Then the totals could well exceed a foot in those places.
What amped up the 98 event was dynamic cooling, but MJ stated that was not a factor for this one.
Has this changed?
MJ used the term (frontogenetical forcing). i have no idea what that meant but he did say to have dynamic cooling you need dry air for evaporation which evidently we will not have. I have not seen any forecast for temps that has us (central KY) below freezing sat night and sunday so I am puzzled as well about how this plays out.
It plays out nutin’ to brag about for us MikeM!! I want spring!
I question the sanity of any naysayer at this point.
Not quite naysayers, just needing to see what will cool things down enough to cause the snow to accumulate over a long period without dynamic cooling to support it. It is not just folks here, but actual mets thinking the warm air will be a factor.
Saying the map range will be on the low side is not being a naysayer, but you might not have been referring to all folks posting.
Websters definition of naysayer:
Someone who has been tortured for 14 years while following a weather blog and being consistently dissapointed by close calls, near misses, eastward progression of lows, living to close to I-64 and I-75 a.k.a. the fence, living underneath a freak of nature,i.e.. the snow dome, warm air advection etc.,etc.,etc.
Sounds like somebody i know
well my racin day is thru, tim e to unwind and get readfy for 6am in morning to start again.
ill end in this, ITS GOING TO SNOW!!!!!
This bad boy will be the real deal. Everything is coming together nicely. Hope the folks in the East don’t lose power. Could be a bad situation for them. Another thing is this will be a very pretty snow.
please snow pull north !!!
it always shifts. Why would this storm be any exception? Someone will be surprised. I hope it is louisville but who knows. It will be exciting to watch. I like where louisville sits though. Right now I would rather be out of higher totals then in. They always change. Again I think this storm has the potential to surprise.
I’d rather not be in the model bull’s eye 36 hours away. This will be a nowcast event and could very easily be very different than what the models are saying
Just came in from the road. I cannot believe what has happen in the last 18 to 20hrs. Last nite I like the nam over the gfs. Now the gfs is better for n.central ky. I would be happy with a 3to5″ snowfall here in Louisville. That would be consider a blizzard compare to the amount of snow we have had recently. Hopefully the 12z will have a northwest trend. I feel that we still have a punchers chance.
i really think the totals for southern ky are over exaggerated because of the amount of rain that will fall before the switch to snow. anyone else feel this way?
Please come northwest!!!
Chris is the only one so far to try and pin down totals. For comparison purposes to try and decide whether or not I should cancel plans I had out of town on Sunday, I checked another Lexington website. The other so called weather man says “mostly snow” for Lexington. Gee you think? ‘Mostly snow” could mean anything from a dusting to a blizzard and is just lazy on his part.
I will help with the north pull, if we all chip in I think we can shift this thing just a tad. not enough to take it from the southeast, just enough to move that sharp cutoff about 50 miles!