Good Thursday everyone. We have a potentially active weather day taking shape across the bluegrass state. A springtime setup will result in the risk for strong and severe thunderstorms today into this evening. All of this is ahead of a strong storm system swinging across the Ohio Valley.
This storm will bring a snowstorm to the Chicago area and severe thunderstorms from the lower Ohio Valley into the deep south. A warm front will be swinging through here early today and should be accompanied by scattered showers and storms. As this warm front lifts to our north… winds are going to crank up from the southwest and our temps will really take off. Readings in the 60s to near 70 will be possible for many.
This will also put the region in a more unstable air mass. Showers and thunderstorms would then develop along and ahead of the cold front that blasts through here tonight. Any storm that develops could produce damaging winds and large hail. Storms that get out on their own may spin up a brief tornado.
If we get severe weather today… the best time looks to be late afternoon into the evening hours. High winds will be possible without storms as we have a nice gradient setting up tonight.
I have this blog setup for your one stop shop to all things severe weather and will be dropping by for updates through the day.
Current Risk
Current Watches
Possible Watch Areas
Don’t forget about the radars, current conditions and cams at the top of the page. I will have more updates as needed and will continue to send out quick updates via twitter.
Take care.
Thundering in Perry County. My lights already blinked. I sure hope our power doesn’t go off again.
Woke up here in Keavy at 3:30 a.m. with hail beating against the windows. 1 1/2 hours later, still can’t get back to sleep. Keep it safe today people and listen to your Noah Weather Radio for updates and keep checking in on the blog for updates too. Keep up the great work Chris!
folks don’t forget to also monitor skywarn nets across the area.
Bring it!!!!
Hard core!
Judging from the migraine I had last night… it’s not only possible, it’s a definite. Meh. Of course, this is Kentucky, we should know this anyway. If there’s rain predicted, it’s a given… but snow – go ahead and plan that outdoor barbecque ’cause it ain’t coming! 😛
I had one of the worst migraine’s I’d ever had yesterday!!..hmmm I never connected the weather change to migraines..something to watch for…
I have had a headache since yesterday…a sure sign a major front is coming through.
Could explain the headache I had yesterday..never thought of this.
I have had a headache since Nov./Dec. This entire season has been a headache.
Yeah, I’ve suffered from migraines for around 15 years now and after doing all of the journaling to try and figure out triggers and such, it’s a definite for me that mine are triggered by changes in the weather and in the atmospheric pressure. This has been an especially horrid winter for it! It’s one of the worst triggers to have too because there is absolutely no avoiding it :/
I also get migraines from weather changes and bright sunny days in Feb. and Oct. (angle of the sun?) However, my migraines are not nearly as bad since I found out I’m allergic to wheat. Changing my diet has been a lifesaver. I never would have suspected wheat but my allergist says it’s a very common trigger.
I have had a horrible headache since I got up this morn, and i hardly ever have bad headaches.
The word SNOW wasn’t mentioned a single time in this post! Wow! Spring is on its way!! 🙂 Or maybe here…….out forecast high for today is 74!!
Jackson says a CHANCE on Friday night with Thunder..lol..
Friday Night: A chance of rain showers before 8pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers between 8pm and 10pm, then a slight chance of snow showers after 10pm. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. West northwest wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%
I was just getting ready to post this very thing….
I LOVE IT!!!!!!!
SPC has upgraded our tornado risk to 10%. Like I mentioned on my blog though, we have to get these clouds out of here. They are killing instability.
Thays fine hope it stayys cloudy. We are dealing with fog atm
I agree. The cloud cover is bad. The CAPE values aren’t too great with the last map I saw. We’ll see. Not too impressed with the tornado risk upgrade. Maybe later.
Clearing out nicely here in Bowling Green!
Indeed.. now that the sun is up, we can switch over to the visible channel and see where the good sunshine is. Looks like rapid clearing is taking place across Kentucky. Most areas are going to see sunshine by lunchtime. I’m sure SPC is taking note of this. Hang on … business is about to pick up.
Thanks WX. I’m away from my computer. This phone is all I have right now. Trying to get away from work early in case things start kicking.
get ready everyone….prepare for the worst tonite. it appears all parameters will be met and exceeded and a mod risk will be issuedin the next hour. rapid clearing and sunshine for at least 4-6 hours is going to fuel this fire. cape will exceed 1500 and LI’s should approach -6 to -8 this evening. lots of shear, multiple tornado reports will be common, especially between 6 and 9 this evening.
sunshine and 61* here in Barbourville…only fueling the Fire !!
Really? You guys are wanting clouds to leave so we can have tornados and severe storms that could kill people? Unbelievable.
there not be MULTIPLE TORNADO re[ports, . BAILEY postred a hour ago via tweeter KY in the heart of the SPC TORNADO threat.
low country western ky best shot at a tornado as well.
u see LARGE HAIL and WINDS for east/SE KY
somerset west there MIGHT be 1 or 2 tornados on ground.
gotta love ole WXMAN, WE GOT TO GET THESE CLOUDS OUT OF HERE, they are killing the instibilty.lol
hope u get a TORNADO so u can watch ut then, anybody excited WANTING it to get sunny and hot to feul DEADLY STORMS is, well u a weather nut.
but im sure anybody that loses there home,loved one etc would like to have a word with you.lolll
I totally agree with ya on that one. Pulling for Deadly storms isn’t right, I don’t care if you love weather! I know–we can’t control what the weather is going to do – if we are pulling for it or not, If there are tornado’s – then it will happen, but I don’t understand why, you would Want them to happen?
Kind of like saying if humans someday learn to control the wx, let’s deliberately let the wx do its thing anyway, leave the tornadoes and hurricanes alone so we can see the havoc and people killed. Of course no one would do this.
Perhaps let a controlled EF5 tornado demonstrate its wrath in front of ticket paying wx fans marveling at the storm dynamics but without threat to life and only intentional targets like junk cars, old empty buildings and such being in storm path.
Hey rolo we already had this discussion on the blog a few weeks ago. You must have missed it. 🙂 One example that was used: Are NASCAR fans a bunch of sick evil nuts because they go watch races? NO.. they go to see the race, not to see somebody die. There are lots and lots of things that people enjoy in this world, but a part of it is that occasionally people are hurt or killed. It’s just a sad fact of life. That doesn’t mean that what you are hoping for when you go to a race is that somebody will crash and die. Same thing with weather… YES I hope it storms like h*** this afternoon. Does that mean that I hope people die? Of course not! But it’s a sad fact of life that houses may be lost tonight. That’s just the way it is and nobody can do anything about it. But saying that people who enjoy a good storm are “nuts” is wrong. Now.. bring the storms! woo!
Thanks, WXMan.
Very quick example as I’m at work, the spc has now dropped the tornado potential over northern KY from 10% to 5% (but it’s still relatively early, things remain fluid). Good that there is less threat to life, but the wx person in many of us can’t help feeling a bit deflated.
It’s not like if I come on and say, “Boy, I sure hope there’s no tornadoes today.”, that it will have any effect what so ever on the outcome of events tonight, to believe otherwise indicates a messiah complex at best. People who hope to see severe weather simply enjoy Mother Nature and or God’s beauty at work..or do you truly believe that people wishing for severe weather make it happen?
AMEN to that Chris! My sister says that I am just horrible because I want alot of snow in the winter. she says tht I just want to make it bad on other people and unsafe for her family out on the roads. LIKE I am going to make it happen!!! lol Enjoy what GOD gives us and be prepared for whatever comes our way!!!!!
Wxman, let me preface by saying I do appreciate what you contribute to this site. However, this is one area where I and others disagree. Let’s continue with the NASCAR analogy. In my opinion, your view of hoping for severe weather is like someone going to a race and hoping for a big wreck. Fans of racing should hope to see a good race, not a big wreck risking the lives of the drivers and spectators. If I go to a race and am vocal to everyone around about hoping to see a huge wreck or a wreck from h*** as you put it, I don’t think people at the race would appreciate my opinion.
AMEN
Not this old stale chestnut again….
i agree with rolo anybody who wishes for tornados just aint right, u keep them in your back yard wx man.
People will say it’s bad to wish for snow or storms……saying how much destruction it would cause. But it’s equally as bad to wish for rain to go away….if you would prefer to have the weather your way, I would advise you to pack your bags and move to the Atacama desert….it never rains there, and there’s no way for human life to sustain itself there.
I get upset when it doesn’t snow, or when there’s non-events…then there’s people who go ballistic if it rains. You can’t win. Take the good with the bad, and move on. It’s weather, folks. Whatever happens is not because you did or didn’t want it to.
New SPC outlook actually backed down somewhat…My guess would be they are looking at moisture return right now and reason not for the moderate risk…My local mets in Louisville sound more concerned then the SPC and a few of them think we should go moderate risk
another thing this going be a SCATTERED EVENT at best, there not a real JICY ATMOSSP0HERE IMO.
not alot of moisture around, yea up NW arround low, but there not a majior gulf influence here.
u see QUICK popping indvisual storms that will not be long lasting.
but the storms like that can get FUNKY in short period of time, but as i look at things more IM NOT real worried about the storm threat.
67* sunny degrees!!
Sunny and 64 in Lawrenceburg. Dewpoint still not real high.
Well, at least no insane outlooks using the NAM for snow 😉
Lucy (NAM) had her final laugh for winter. Any other discussion will not be footbal worthy, though perhaps one of those little tiny plastic foitballs they throw out at games. If any of you folks try to kick one of those, you really are gullible like Charlie Brown 😉
I seem kickdrunk too with my typos.
Perhaps an active day for us spotters. I would love to participate in a net. Listening to the Skywarn net is quite informative and dramatic, though. But, if severe weather is occurring near my location, I’ll be out at my storm spotting location (I actually have 3 possible locations).
Keep those weather radios in alert mode. S.A.M.E code technology is a plus. It’s easy to program those codes for counties in your immediate vicinity. The NWS Louisville has a list of all 6-digit codes for Kentucky.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/CntyCov/nwrKY.htm
You guys need to use the wicked witch theme from Wizard of Oz. The one where she is rifding the bike in the tornado 🙂
are the storms for this eve or has the chance already moved out? The green on the radar is moving away from us!
Sue, Rain on current radar is the warm front that moved through over night into this morning. What we are waiting for is the cold front. Should come in this evening around sunset or after. Dewpoints on there way up and the sun shining bright can’t be a good thing. Unless of course if you like severe storms.
thank you! My house is on top of a hill on our farm just out of Flatwoods and we have alot of 100 year old trees around and i always worry about high winds especially with 3 young kids in my house! We may have a bed full of kids tonight! Thanks again!!!!!!!
Sunny in Frankfort, 66 degrees, Spring is here 🙂 !
71* here in Barbourville, sunshine and winds have increased dramatically over the past hour or so…
mid 70’s along the ky/border to my west !! wow…hard to believe I was shoveling 6″ of snow monday…
Only 55* in Campbell County at 3:00pm. 🙁
My first possible severe weather event since becoming a SKYWARN spotter, hoping for some decent storms this evening. Stay safe everyone.
Severe Storm lookout…
As of 3pm… Dewpoint 40’s east of I65, 50’s west. Mid 30’s dewpoints in central MO and AR.
Barometric pressure at 992 mb, down from 1002 mb five hours earlier here in Louisville (or at my location in Valley Station). That’s an average of 2 mb/hr, indicative of an intensifying storm system (why winds are increasing). Pressure at 988 mb in central MO right now.
Helicity vals above 500 in western KY, western IN, eastern IL. Lot of twist above.
Cap is currently in effect, limiting any t’storm development. Give it about 2 or 3 hours.
Shear vals look high across west Ky and west Indiana…Will cap erode in time for storm initiation?
Strong jet punching into southern MO into west KY.
Storms could initiate in west IN and west KY in a couple of hours depending on the cap in place. Any storms that can develop will race eastward and may prove to be strong in a hurry. Hard to say how things will unfold. No Mesoscale discussions in place yet. I expect to change within a couple of hours.
New Meso out for western/central KY roughly running along the river and 30-50 miles to the south
Saying watch is “possible”; think they are looking at moisture return to see if storms can fire within next few hours
Come join in the action are my chat room. Storm chasers are already gathering around the country. Got 2 now in SW Kentucky waiting for the storms to develop. Come on over and lets chat and watch together..
http://www.keavysroom.chatango.com/
Clouding and cooler in the metro. Not good for stormage.
Dude, its 70 in louisville. Also, these clouds aren’t that thick either. should be gone soon. Cumulus are forming in behind it too. It’s gonna be a n interesting and fun night though.
SPC has taken the meso down. Wonder if that means anything.
Nope, usually its been up too long. They dont keep those things up forever haha.
temp: 70 Hum: 48%….. NW wind @ 10mph with gusting
well its been a SUMMER like day here in the south today my back yard thermometer said 74* earlier, while parts no south central ky along the border is flirting with 80* !!!! wow…one of my twins actually got a bit of sun burn on her arms outside today…SPRING FLING IN FULL FORCE!!!
These clouds zoomed through western KY, should do the same in cky.
Ok….who is ready for some exciting weather…ANY exciting weather! And I hate tornados…but I love a good boomer 🙂
http://www.keavysroom.chatango.com/ Chatting and watching chasers. Got 1 chaser located in Elizabethtown and another just West of Louisville.
73 in Keavy and sunny skies. Reckon this will fuel our atmosphere.
Wow hard to believe there’s even the inkling of a chance of storms here in Corbin! 🙂 Nice breeze, low-mid 70s sunny.
I think the cap is just to strong right now for anything severe to break out. Guess we’ll see later this evening if it breaks through it.
The cap literally just broke.
Well, in CKY at least
Not-so-good timing for NWS Jackson KY radar to go tech.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/
Won’t be back up until Friday. During the storms, NWS Jackson will rely on other adjacent NWS radar sites.
Ever notice how the radars go offline when a severe storm approaches? 😀
Rain in Lawrenceburg. Should stabilize the atmosphere in this area, hopefully preventing severe weather later. I have no problem with that.
Wow…the local mets made this seem like a sure bet ALL day..armagedon was approaching and now…nothing….really? I’m glad to know that there will be no property damage etc, but a little thinder and wind was a welcome friend….
This does not seem to be developing as planned. Stuff fired near Lex. Just rain. No wind, no lightning.
Had hail here. These fired on the warm front when they broke the cap.
It’s raining in Bourbon County. Nothing more than regular ol’ rain.
Just had about a 20 minute shower (BIG raindrops) in Bardstown. No wind to speak of since around 2pm(but they were gusting up well prior to that time), wild-looking clouds since about that time, as well. Just like every other forecast this Winter, I think this is a huge bust, as well. Then again, who knows? It might decide to ‘fire up’ a tad later?! (Hope not..if I can’t have a surprise SNOWSTORM, I sure as heck don’t want a shocker of a t-storm/tornado!) 🙂
I TOLD U SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, oh i told u asooo that today song..
NO JUICE FOLKS as i stated this moen, yea WARM AND SUN but that means nothing with low HUMIDITY/ mositure in air.
better call WXMAN he might hurt himself with no torjnadossssss to watch.lol
Well pat your self on the back a little more there rolo
Hold the phone.. that storm in Spencer Co. could drop a twister in my hometown in 30 minutes.. who knows? 🙂
It is currently 68 degrees here with a dew point of 56. We went from a possible tornado watch to only a 30% chance of rain (which is okay with me). It is a beautiful evening here; even grilled some hamburgers and hotdogs!!
Appears to be wimpy like our snows, so at least good news in this case. Big snow is usually better than a big storm.
another bust! unreal these computer models this year suck!
Heavy rain & lightning in Frankfort.
Rainin’ laptops and unemployment checks here in Frankfort.
Storms firing up, arm chair mets on here jumped the gun 🙂
Well, I said earlier in a post, “unless they fire up later?”…seems like they are trying to do just that, but the likelihood of tornadic storms has diminished quite a bit. But hey-this IS the OV! We might be “arm-chair met’s” as you say, but that’s about what it takes anymore to get an accurate forecast…just lay back in the recliner, look out the window every 10 min’s or so…
The stars are sure bright tonight.
Thank goodness no severe weather
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
NORTHEASTERN BULLITT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
NORTHERN NELSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
SOUTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
SPENCER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
* UNTIL 845 PM EST
These storms had been behaving pretty well until just now.. that one moving into Taylorsville has a pretty good hail signature in it.
This is the Ky weather center, not just the south east Ky weather center, some folks get all fired up down that way if the forecast is not a perfect fit for their area?
Glad that I am not the only one who has noticed this, Todd. What gets me most is all the complaining about never getting “any’ snow…granted, it’s been a tough Winter wx season for ALL of us, but if it’s going to snow big-time, you can bet your…well…hahaha!-that it’s going to do it in E/SE KY. about 88% of the time.
btw: So far this winter, we’ve had 3 1/4” snow here in Bardstown. All one “storm”, and I’m even throwing in the 14 flakes I saw on the big rock in my backyard flower/rock garden last week, I think it was?! 😉
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
SOUTHEASTERN OWEN COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
* UNTIL 900 PM EST.
Seems Lucy is branching out to warmer storm event 😉
Thankfully, these storms are not real bad, but probably not the case in the coming weeks.
I’ve “heard” that there might be something wintry for us brewing late next week, Bubba…keep the faith. I know it’s hard, but coming from a die-hard snow bunny for 49 yrs…I don’t give up until we get a whole week of 85-90° wx…then I know we’re ‘done for’ far as Winter! 🙂
There needs to be some light from folks like you amongst the darkness 😉
Well, Bubba, it’s like a comment I made earlier to someone…and I am just sorry if I “offend”, but why sugar-coat..?! 😉
I get too sick of all the E/SE KY peeps whining and moaning about how they “never” get any worthwhile snowfalls. I get too sick of all the Louisville/S. IN peeps who whine and moan about how THEY “never” get any worthwhile snowfalls. Apathetic, or WHUT?! 😉 I mean, you can almost bet the house, the farm, the kids, the pets, the wife or hubby, the freakin’ pedophile next door, that, by gosh, if it’s gonna come a decent snowfall, 88% of the time, it will be in one of those area’s! I live smack in the middle of Bardstown and all we have gotten this winter is a whoppin’ 3 1/4″..all in one storm, countin’ those 14 flakes I THINK I saw on a rock out back last week or whenever it was?! 😉 (I may have been so hopeful that it was ‘the biggin'” for the year, possible I could have had the ‘early morning fuzzies’ not quite yet out of my eyes..?!) For instance, back in Dec ’04, they predicted the big snowfall here-we here got a crippling ice storm…but just 15-18 miles N/NW of me, in Bullitt Co, and on into L-Ville, they had anywhere from 8-12″…
I also find it hilarious how they “claim” to never get any big snow, but yet, they all seem to know up to the day of the most recent (and talk abou)t ‘their last big snow’…hmmm…;) (Our last “Biggin” was back in March ’08…13″…btw)
So I wanted to share something that all weather geeks would appreciate. if you want to post the temperature and want to us the degree sign. type the temperature and then press and hold the alt key and type the number 0176 and that will display the degree symbol……..so 67 + alt0176 = 67°
Umm..also, “Number Lock” has to be ‘ON’ to realize this feature.:)
Hold up here, another wave developing west of Louisville. That might be the actual wave. who knows.
Might be, but doubtful. If I actually thought it was going to be bad, I wouldn’t have a Red Baron in the oven and pretty much nodding off while the oven is on. I’d be wide-eyed and hyper, not so much chillaxin’…;)
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
EASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
EDMONSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
SOUTHERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
SOUTHWESTERN HART COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
* UNTIL 1015 PM CST
SPC about to issue a mesoscale discussion regarding convection firing in West Central Kentucky. Would personally be surprised if a watch is issued given eroding and already marginal instability. Nevertheless, very high shear, but betting small hail and isolated high winds are main threats.