A Wild Ride Next Week

Good Friday, folks. The month of December is off and running with temps all over the place out there today. While the weekend weather looks nice, things are about to take a turn toward the wintry side of life. The pattern over the next few weeks has a lot of potential, so buckle up.

Before we  get to all that, let me say a few words about today’s weather. Fog may be quite thick this morning into parts of central and eastern Kentucky. This fog may be awfully slow to burn away today. If that’s the case, temps would be much chillier for areas keeping the fog and low clouds.

Something similar may try to play out on Saturday, but a southwesterly wind will certainly stir the atmosphere up some. Highs should hit the 50s for most, with a 60 for the west.

Sunday’s forecast: See Saturday. 🙂

The fun begins early next week as a strong cold front works toward Kentucky. Ahead of this front, winds will crank and temps will spike deep into the 60s. Showers and thunderstorms will then develop and work across Kentucky Monday night into Tuesday. As the front moves through, temps will then tank Tuesday night and Wednesday…

Some heavy rain totals are a possibility…

The GFS continues to indicate the potential for a change to light snow right behind the front Tuesday night and early Wednesday…

Again, I’m still not completely sold on that scenario playing out, but the odds of that are increasing.

Flakes or not right behind the front, the cold takes hold and we will be watching the potential for several systems to drop in from the northwest. The GFS brings a couple of clippers into town from Friday into next weekend…

A few days later, it tries to round the bend of the trough with a deeper system…

The GFS has been very consistent in a general sense with the individual systems showing up over the next week or two. The normally reliable European Model gives me a different solution with each run. While it has the cold setup, the individual systems are totally different with each run. The Euro appears to be having trouble with the initial trough coming from the west early next week, throwing the rest of its run off.

I’m not saying the GFS is spot on with everything (it’s not at all), but it’s steady and probably closer to reality.

Just watch those arctic shots showing up over the next few weeks…

We will likely see several snow chances during this time, but that’s about all I can say. Those will be handled on a case by case basis as we get closer to each system.

That said, the Ensembles continue to like our snow chances over the next 2 weeks. Check out the last few runs…


I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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16 Responses to A Wild Ride Next Week

  1. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, Does not look as impressive as it did earlier this week. Snowfall map hasn’t changed since the last run however. Look forward to your updates.

  2. Damaged Goods says:

    ♫ I’m dreaming of a white Christmas…. ♫

    Too soon??

    • Schroeder says:

      Never too soon to dream of a beautiful White Christmas. Last one for me was in 2004 in Vanderburgh County, Indiana. Twenty-two inches of snow. The best winter that I ever saw was in 1969-70. It snowed from December through March 1970. A White Christmas and New Year. Now that’s rare.

  3. Lotsasnow says:

    Looks like mostly rain

    • corey says:

      Dude…seriously…dont become the new Schroeder…he is actually doing well now…so please save yourself The ridicule and humiliation… Thanks

  4. Blizzardtim says:

    I’d say with the pattern like we are headed into, the odds of getting a white Christmas this year is the best we’ve seen since the white Christmas Of 2010 ! Time will tell …

    • TennMark says:

      I was also thinking of Christmas 2010. Bowling Green KY, Chattanooga and Nashville TN, Huntsville AL among many places had good snow cover on the ground that Dec 25th. Even Auburn AL had an inch of snow….. only the second “official” white Christmas in Auburn’s recorded history.

      I’m more of a warm wx person, but that Christmas was extra special because of the snow.

  5. Jamie says:

    What’s the bottom line here folks? Easy… we don’t yet know how the system(s) are going to play out with regard to snow, but confidence is very high on significant cold coming. So use this weekend’s nice weather to winterize your house and your car, if you haven’t yet, and make sure you and your family are ready for it next week when it arrives. Thanks to Chris for keeping us on top of the changes.

  6. Mike S says:

    Uh, the GFS has a polar vortex visiting the U.S. in later runs, Euro not so much. Still cold, but does not favor a strong and lasting Greenland block, shunting bulk of coldest air to the northeast of our region…at least after day 10, instead of that Arctic Bowl look that would guarantee us the coldest air.

    • Schroeder says:

      Mike if you look on the Ventusky winds you will notice that Greenland has warmed up in the last couple of weeks and all the cold Arctic air has shifted and is pouring into Asia and northeastern Europe. The question I have has the Polar Low strengthen and will delay the Arctic air from coming into the United States next weekend and how cold will it be ?

    • Jeff Kidd says:

      The Euro is having all sorts of problems with this front. Every run it shows something different, so it may not fix it self until the system makes land fall and it can sample it better.

  7. Lotsasnow says:

    That’s why with the bigger storms warmer air will override and be train possibly frezz rain.

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