Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks. Flurries and a few snow showers have been dotting the skyline across the region today. These flakes didn’t show up on most models, with only a few picking up on them less than 24 hours ago. There’s a much bigger system the models didn’t pick up on across the south and east.

This is a system that is ready to bring accumulating snow from the Gulf Coast to New England. Look at the snowfall forecast for the deep south…

Again, that wasn’t even a thought on the operational models until a few days ago. The Ensembles suggested snow to the Gulf Coast more than a week ago, and I talked about that very thing here on this blog.

I’m talking and showing you this to try and get everyone to stop worrying about each and every operational model run and focus on pattern recognition and trends. 🙂

As far as the clipper diving in here this weekend is concerned, I have no changes to my ideas. The Hi-Res NAM future radar shows our system diving in here, with snow showers filling in behind it on a northwest flow from Lake Michigan…

That’s likely underdone with the coverage and it only goes through 7pm Saturday evening. Northwesterly wind coming off Lake Michigan tend to be underdone on models, especially from a few days out.

Some light accumulations are possible across parts of the state. Here’s the area with the best chance…

Light is the operative word, with that potential during the afternoon and evening. Winds will be VERY gusty with a full blown flizzard breaking out at times. 🙂 Wind chills by Sunday morning hit the single digits at times.

Clipper mania kicks in next week with additional snow threats showing up as early as Monday night. It’s also a VERY cold week shaping up.

I will touch on all that with my next update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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14 Responses to Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris! I’ve already bought the chili makings for the weekend! Sounds like just the thing! The worst thing about the cold weather is that I’ve gotten spoiled with all the lower electric bills. So colderweather means higher electric bills. Oh well. Have a great afternoon everyone. After all, it is Friday Eve! 😉

  2. Conner McCracken says:

    What in the world is a full blown flizzard?

  3. BubbaG says:

    Snow globe snow. Pretty to look at anyway 🙂

  4. THE ROOSTER says:

    We just might have our first “Bread & Milk Alert’ issued next week…

    • Andy Rose says:

      I wouldn’t hold my breath

    • BubbaG says:

      My guess we might mainly be getting those alerts in later January and early February when Kentucky could be the fence for cold & warm air battles. Still sticking with us having more of a chance for big mix/ice than snow this winter. Spring-like storms as well.

      • Terry says:

        We might later if the southern branch wakes up….for now, you can forget about ice/mix chances with this dry, cold and fairly boring pattern

  5. Prelude says:

    Par for the course… places that usually don’t get snow like Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama will get there first decent snowfall of the season possibly several inches. While we get maybe some very light snow or flurries on Saturday if we’re lucky. Just another case of cold air and no moisture for us.

    • Rodger in Dodger says:

      Yep, either too warm and wet or too cold and dry in Rodger’s neck of the woods. A big waste of cold air over the next week. Rodger in Dodger

  6. Bjenks says:

    Best chance at a December snow in several years and everyone is already given up on a winter that hasn’t even started. Just a thought, the week leading up to Xmas may get very interesting around here. Oh! And anything is better than last year….lol

  7. Russell says:

    West Ky misses out again…..

  8. Cold Rain says:

    System to the south on the GFS got more amped..More moisture..NW also..Just need another 150 mile NW shift in you’re in SE

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