An Action Packed Pattern For Christmas

Good Sunday, folks. Light showers are working across the state today, kicking off a very active setup for the coming few weeks. This action packed pattern is likely to really kick it up a few notches as we head into Christmas Weekend and Christmas week, with winter weather very possible.

Let’s begin with today’s showers, then begin our look ahead. This isn’t a lot of rain working across Kentucky, and it may only dampen the ground for some areas. Still, it’s likely to be a rather gloomy Sunday…

The threat for showers continues for the next few days, with temps at or a little above normal. There’s a stronger system across the south by the middle of the week, and the European Model brings this right into our region…

That looks a little too wound up for my taste, and may be a product of the European being too slow with energy ejecting from the southwest.

The pattern after that will feature a strong cold front rolling into the region on Friday. This will unleash a pattern that can feature waves of low pressure developing and rolling northeastward along a stalled out boundary. Exactly where that boundary sets up is still a mystery.

That scenario can bring rain, snow, ice or a combination of the three from Friday through Christmas Day. I’m going to continue to ride this map I put out last Monday…

I’m hopeful to be able to get a little more specific with that map later today or Monday.

The GFS wobbles from run to run on exactly how everything shakes out, but it continues to bring a significant winter weather threat to our region. The model is settling on two waves of low pressure. The first coming along the front on Friday with rain to some snow. The next wave comes Christmas eve and Day, with the current run showing snow across the east…

Here’s the snow map from that run…

The ice map is significantly lower with this run…

The European Model is similar to the GFS with the Friday system, but can’t seem to find the Christmas Eve and Christmas Day system. The setup on the model appears ripe for much more moisture than it’s currently showing. Just look at the bitter cold coming in, with the mild air across the southeast…

I highlighted the area where the Euro should be showing more precipitation.

Regardless, The European and GFS show the bitter cold taking control of much of the country Christmas week.

The Canadian Model continues to be on its own and has no idea what to do with any of this…

Again, these models will continue to flip and flop with each run for the next few days. One run may show a foot of snow, followed by the next run showing all rain or vice versa. I still cant tell you if your Christmas will be white, wet or both

Updates come your way later today. Have a great Sunday and take care.


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55 Responses to An Action Packed Pattern For Christmas

  1. Beka Williamson says:

    Chris, what you do is so appreciated! I truly enjoy reading your blog everyday (and multiple times during the winter)! I’m also learning a lot as well. My co-workers have started asking me for weather updates! You’ve nailed every cold shot we’ve had so far. I would love to see a white Christmas but we know we just have to go with the flow. Keep up the great work!!

  2. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, Looks like you have your hands full with all those undecided weather models. Well, this time next week we will know for sure what the weather will be and then you can relax and enjoy Christmas with your family.

  3. Coffeelady says:

    Thank you Chris. Seems there are going to be some surprises for Christmas somewhere. I would love to see an inch or two for Christmas ( simply because so many are traveling). Don’t want any Christmas disappointments for families. Also hope the ice part stays away from everybody. Know you’ll keep an eye on it so I’ll keep an eye on the blog! Happy Sunday everyone.

  4. TennMark says:

    Thanks, Mr Bailey. While the wife is eagerly wishing for some snow, just about all of us are of course wary of any possible ice. Experiencing the 2009 ice storm in Evansville Indiana was bad enough for me, although places further south in Kentucky like Madisonville were even harder hit by the same storm. My wife as a kid in Bowling Green lived through the nasty 1994 ice event (which also crippled places like Nashville and Memphis).

    Some light rain is just starting to fall in Nashville.

  5. c-BIV says:

    Well, The Weather Channel just came on and gave all of Kentucky a less than 5% chance of a white Christmas ( at least 1″ of snow on ground by Christmas morning). That wraps it up everyone. See you next year…same time, same bat channel.

    • which way is the wind blowing says:

      It is not over until the festive flakes sings from the fallen sky.

    • Jimbo says:

      That’s depressing. If anyone out there wants to read more depressing white Christmas predictions. Look up your extended forecast on Accuweather or read the channel 8 weather blog if you are in the Huntington WV viewing area.

  6. Ecmwf says:

    The 6z gfs comes dangerously close of phasing 2 pieces of energy. The euro does not develop moisture along the front and has the smaller piece of energy hang back quite some time. Could be playing towards the euro bias of holding back energy

  7. Andy Rose says:

    33 and rain. Hopefully not a sign of things to come

  8. Cold Rain says:

    Wicked cold lurking to our north..Guess it’s that thingamajig called the Polar Vortex trying to stretch it’s muscle..Out there in time so we shall see..

  9. Prelude says:

    Oddly enough Louisville area getting sleet mixing in with the rain in the past few minutes with a temperature of 44 degrees.

  10. Cold Rain says:

    Still believe with this setup there’s a good chance when the rain hit’s the ground it get’s slippery..Model’s should start coming to agreement in a few days hopefully..

  11. TeachLou says:

    Thought I saw a few pellets of sleet mixing in with rain drops here in the east end of Louisville. Temp reading here is 42.

  12. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Hope you all get what you want under the tree for Christmas because it won’t be white outside. Rodger in Dodger

  13. BubbaG says:

    It looks like the models are trending more east, north east with the expected system for frozen stuff as time progresses. Look at CB’s maps in previous posts. It has gone from ice and snow over most of Kentucky to more east and north east today.

    • BengalFan says:

      Flipity Flopity the models go

      I guess it’s fun to look at models this far out and to say this could happen, that could happen? But I’m not sure why! I don’t even have to look at models to say that. This week leading to christmas is going to be 40’s 50’s..shoot I bet some low 60’s.
      …..few weeks back we were saying this week could be interesting????
      I do like chris map with the big circle…instead of saying winter weather potential..it would be cool to see daily percentages on the type of precipitation that he thought would happen. Of course it would change everyday leading up to christmas.
      Like today on the map , he draw lines on diffetent regions of KY and have 20% chance of snow, 25%ice, 55% rain…

      • BubbaG says:

        Based on the east model trend, I am surprised that CB is not pointing this out yet. Seems obvious it’s more east and north of us. The average progression over the past few days is striking. The closer in, the more east it seems to be. I would side with more recent models than ones that showed more favorable for the state a day or more ago.

        Then again I ain’t a met and CB might think is going to shift east in spite of the models?

  14. bgbecky says:

    I’m not being a Negative Nancy, but I would be in complete and total shock if Bowling Green ended up with anything other than 1. rainy and mild or 2. cold and sunny. These maps have been all over the place, but I truly suspect that when the big day gets here, my neck of the woods will have 1 of these 2 things! I guess we shall see!

  15. Cold Rain says:

    This run of the GFS looks like puke so far..It’s totally lost like the Canadian..

  16. Tyler says:

    12z GFS blowtorch!

  17. Tyler says:

    CMC is now bringing a snowfall into Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Northwest Ohio. so it will interesting to see what the CMC does on it’s 00z run later tonight. is this the start of a trend on the Canadian model?

  18. Schroeder says:

    Weather models ???

    • Prelude says:

      Yes Schroeder weather models. You said you learn from the best so you of all people should know what a weather model is. You should also know what a App runner is (yet you don’t) especially a person like yourself with all your weather wisdom. I hope that the person who you learn from and say is the best did not charge you or I would ask for a refund.

  19. Prelude says:

    Meanwhile the WPC is aggressive with the system for the upcoming Christmas weekend. WPC is going with a 10-30% chance of snow/sleet 2.5 inches for Kentucky Friday night, and a 30-50% chance of snow/sleet 2.5 inches on Saturday for Kentucky.

  20. Cold Rain says:

    Looking at the GFS map’s it’s looks like the EPO ridge is all messed up..Therefore the energy is being held back..Just my take on trying to understand these maps..

    • Ecmwf says:

      Agreed. With the EPO forecasted to be as negative as it is it argues that cold should have no problem pushing through ridge. I could be wrong but agree with your take

  21. Schroeder says:

    Just look at the water vapor loop and at the current it’s showing the subtropical high pressure ridge in the southeast and into the Gulf of Mexico and looks to be pushing north, northwest. On the west coast it is showing a deep trough from Oregon to southern California with a lot of dry air aloft. In central plains and into the Ohio valley the rain showers are being push out by a dry slot of air from the southwest. At the present it doesn’t show any Arctic air entering the US.

  22. Troy says:

    Chris said it best yesterday…the GFS is only good for entertainment at this far out, yet we build hype or despair from its every run. Until we all learn the lessons of putting faith in this delusional ( totally schizophrenic if it were human) piece of software (from even a few hours out) there will always be rampant disappointment.

  23. corey says:

    Well all know the models are trash up u til 2 days or less leading up to the system! Lol So let’s just sit back and enjoy the ride!

    • Terry says:

      True…I think it is sad we are nearing 2020 and computer output is no better than pre-2000 regarding forecast modeling until about 24 to 36 hours out, my opinion. At least we should finally have something to track, regardless if it is rain, ice, combo or snow…beats nothing to discuss anyways.

  24. Russell says:

    West KY snow still awol.

  25. Tyler says:

    12z EURO showing quite a bit more moisture…..but it’s quite a bit warmer as well!

  26. Schroeder says:

    I have never had a course in meteorology. I learned it from watching a weather caster back in the 1950’s and 60’s. Back then you never heard of computer models and you only got a three day forecast and no weather forecast over the weekend. I really liked it when they would forecast a snowstorm and no school. When that happened we would all go out and play in the snow. I better stop typing about the good old days before I start crying.

  27. Cold Rain says:

    All hail the Euro King..

  28. Cold Rain says:

    Man..That looks like a ton of rain on the Euro..lol

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