Good Monday, everyone. It’s hard to believe we are one week away from Christmas. As we get closer to the big day, the complicated weather pattern should start to become much more clear. As of now, it’s still loaded with a ton of potential and a ton of question marks.
In the run up to Christmas weekend, the pattern is very active. We have lots of clouds out there today, with a scattering of showers a good bet. Temps will be a little higher than what we had on Sunday, but not by much.
Tuesday’s weather may look and feel a lot like what we have out there today. Gloomy is the word of the week, apparently.
Our possible Wednesday rain maker comes from an increasingly strong southern system. It’s a system the models really didn’t start picking up on fully until the past few days. We have been seeing a split with some models bringing good rains into Kentucky, with others keeping the rains to our south.
The new NAM continues to show southern Kentucky getting in on the rain…
The GFS has now given in and joined the party…
There’s the chance we could see a touch of sleet with that setup on Wednesday, especially on the northern edge of the rain.
This brings us to the pattern for Christmas weekend, and it’s one that’s quite potent and energetic. Bitterly cold air will dive into the country, with some semblance of a southeast ridge trying to fight it. This duel is giving the computer forecast models fits, but these fits should be ironed out over the next few days.
The new GFS takes a potent low into the Great Lakes on Friday, dragging a cold front into Kentucky. As this happens, a wave of low pressure develops along the front, bringing rain then snow in here through Saturday morning…
The cold is much deeper and faster on that particular run, with a switch to snow…
Is this the beginning of the models finally grasping the amount of cold coming into the country? Maybe, but you’re still gonna see some wild swings on the models.
As the cold is deeper and stronger, the GFS then tries to figure out how to handle the energy along the stalled front to our south and east for Christmas Eve and Day…
The bias of the GFS is to be too far south and east with such systems. The European Model can sometimes have too much of a west bias in similar situations.
The new version of the European is for a major overrunning event in our region, starting Sunday and going through the middle of next week…
The low-level cold is already pressing on that run, leading to rain and wintry weather. Here’s the snow map from that particular run…
The ice map…
All I can say is we continue to have the potential for all forms of precipitation this weekend into early Christmas week. It’s still too early to tell which type and at which time, but the potential is certainly real.
This map is now one week old, and I haven’t had to make a single change to it..
I’ll try to get more specific with my updates later today.
By the way, after whatever system we get on Christmas, we are likely to track another system just a few days later. The setup through the New Year is absolutely frigid for much of the country. The GFS Ensembles…
Check back for updates. Make it a wonderful Monday and take care.
There doesn’t look like a big snow event for a while yet. Just a mess of things.
It’s too bad that the good soaking rains to our south are not going to make it into the state of Kentucky. Just like the snowstorm in the deep south a couple of weeks ago.
Turn out the lights folks…the NWS at Jackson says this morning and I quote “Mild weather will continue through the upcoming week and will LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEKEND” Nothing to see here I guess. LOL Thelma Lou got a good laugh at that one, even if we don’t get snow, the one constant looks to be the colder temps coming in as we get into the weekend.
If “potential” was snow, we’d get buried most winters. In reality, these maps all look like major misses for us. A lot can change, but relying on back end flakes is always folly. Rodger hopes are fading. This is Rodger in Dodger.
Thanks, Chris. There may be some situations in which the sun shining through a thin coating of ice actually looks pretty on the trees and such, yet the ice is too light to bring down limbs and power lines and the roads (if not bridges) remain only wet. But it seems this requires a rather narrow window of circumstances. Far more times than not, the negatives of ice storms far outweigh any positives. So pretty much everyone is rooting against ice! Beyond this, some invest in generators and chainsaws like some retired grandparents a few homes away from us (they still have bad memories of the 1994 ice storm).
Again, thanks CB!
On today’s date in 1957 was a December tornado outbreak that most affected southern Illinois…..a relatively short distance from Paducah KY.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_1957_tornado_outbreak_sequence
Tornado outbreaks during the normally cooler months in our area are fairly uncommon but far from unknown. But this outbreak was especially rare in that southern Illinois had an F5 in December…..one of only two December F5s in the USA ever (the other F5 occurred in Mississippi). This December F5 in Illinois is also remarkable considering that in all recorded history, all F5s in both Kentucky and Tennessee have only happened during the spring months, not December. Indeed, Kentucky has had nothing stronger in December than a handful of F3s (and KY has had only two January F4s and likewise just a few F4s in November). While Tennessee has had a small handful of F4s in November, December and January, again no F5s outside the colder months in the Volunteer State.
Thankfully, today looks much more benign than 60 years ago today.
Interesting info, thanks TennMark.
Thanks Chris. I always find it a Bit funny when it’s time to talk about snow on the blog. if you aren’t saying we are getting hit every post, some folks call it a bust. But I understood this to be, at least this far our, your thoughts on the matter. Silly me. A reminder… first day of Winter is not until Thursday!! And it’s the shortest day of the year! Get excited about the fact that after that we start getting longer days again! BTW, just being tongue in cheek here folks, not poking at anyone. I’d love to see snow for Christmas too. Have a great Monday everyone.
I think we can all agree, (models included) that following the Christmas rain. We will have a brief and dry two day cold snap. Carry on Gentlemen.
The 0z run of the Euro appears to hold back the coldest air, confining it to the northern plains. While we are likely to see cold air by the end of the year, I believe the coldest air will stay north and northeast of us due to consistent teleconnection signals of weak troughing in the west and a positive trending NAO in the east. Even the EPO will be waning by the end of the year. Also, the AO is trending positive this week and retreat toward neutral by year end. Not good enough for lasting cold and significant snow chances for me. Maybe January.
Mike S, you just described a typical La nina winter. Coldest air stays to the north, no real defined storm tract. The only snow cover on the US map is in the northwest mountains and along the Canadian boarder into the northern Great Lakes and finally the northern most part of the northeast. No snow pack in the central plains. A new factor has come into play in southern California the Santa Anna wind event, which has been going on longer that I can remember. Lastly, in the center part of the country it is abnormally dry because of the westerlies being amplified by a high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, keeping much need precipitation out of our area. I think this is a pattern that we will have to except for some time to come. Called now days Climate Change.
I think what I described above may be the problem why the computer models are having a difficult time on agreeing with what type of weather we will have on this Christmas Weekend.
Kind of interesting the Euro went back to a snow and ice scenario..Sure isone to watch closely in the next few days..
It’s hilarious how some are already giving up.
I totally agree Jeff, but the KWC has always had its share of Debbie Downers and us old timers know who they are. I just love the fact that we are even talking about snow at this point in the season. I still think we get some white stuff, especially for the New Year.
indeed, i was going to engage with them..but i just moved on
Well, should Chris’ prediction of a warmer than average 2nd half of winter plays out, that gives us roughly a month worth of “better” chances for a decent snow. Haven said that, considering a month of really great chances of even a dusting to an inch of snow have led to absolutely nothing for most of us it’s easy to see why people are skeptical, including myself. Most folks here are realists and know that a snow lovers chances here in KY are abysmal at best.
Frigid to start the new year….how long til the weather gods up there get that changed to 35 degrees and rain? Haha. Being a weather dude would be way too much for me, to many changes to pinpoint anything. Props to you Mr Bailey for all your hard work. You do it better than anyone.
Here’s to pulling for old man winter to get ol Jim Bs yawn meter off 10.
Thanks CB! Warm air aloft as stands should not be a big factor, so no ice event equals win! Even if just some festive flakes, that is a win as well for the holidays, over warmish temps we have had in some previous years.
Model summary though suggests a mix and if more west, we could perhaps be in the middle of a slick mess.
12z GFS brings snow into east KY on Christmas Day. Apps runner baby!
Do you have a link for that?
Appalachian Runners ( secondary low pressure systems ) are very rare. Over running events are most common and usually the precipitation type is Ice.