Good evening, everyone. I don’t have a ton of time, but I wanted to drop by and talk about the wild weather for the upcoming Christmas weekend. From heavy rain and possible flooding, to some light snows, it’s a busy one.
The high water threat is real and we have a Flash Flood Watch for areas of central and south central Kentucky…
That may be expanded later tonight into Friday as we see where the heaviest axis of rain sets up. Here’s my current rainfall forecast…
Watch the creeks and streams, especially Friday night into the first half of Saturday.
Cold air sweeps in, leading to a massive drop in temps from northwest to southeast. Some wet snows will try to mix in across the north and northeast late in the day.
I still likely the light snow maker coming in for Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. Can we get this thing to put some snow on the ground? Yep. Here’s my current “odds” map…
The last two runs of the GFS Ensembles show the spread across our region. You can see that well on the individual members…
12z
18z
Even the NAM is now picking up on the Christmas Eve light snow.
I will have another full update later tonight. Have a good evening and take care.
Thanks CB, looks like festive flakes and maybe possibly a coating. Seems though the trend is slowly northeast compared to previous runs over the past several or more days.
Definitely disappointing but we are used to it. I am sad that December was supposed to have been the snowiest of the 3 winter months this year…hopefully that will be wrong too as only 1/4 inch for season-to-date here in Harlan (valley location). Maybe January will be the month.
The model outlooks for rest of winter do not exactly bode well for confidence, given how poor they were for December.
And who said we couldn’t have back to back shoeless winter seasons
Snowless lol
Shoeless is funnier 🙂
We could almost go shoeless this winter.
Definitely could last year!
I am used to Bubba patting himself on the back over the years. 😉
Not this time. I said we had nowhere to go, but up. The models though for the weekend system seemed to be slowly trending NE and that does not take any fancy figuring.
YAY……….chance……….
Thanks Chris. We know you are busy. Hey, if I can get some festive flakes for Christmas, I’ll take them! Maybe we will all get a surprise. Have a Good Friday Eve evening everyone!
Agreed! Better IMO than 60 to 70 temps. Maybe we will spared of salt too 🙂
GFS stands for: Good For Something just not forecasting snow maybe lottery numbers sure would like to see some good snow this winter it’s amazing December has been big talk when we’re gonna finish the month average temp and below normal snowfall unless the late month phantom storm hits just don’t use the models to find out
LOL! The point though is when the GFS looked like the Euro earlier today, THEN the GFS looked good to folks 😉
So true…when a particular model shows us what we want to see, everyone is giddy (even when said model is notoriously almost always wrong), My question is why pay attention to the GFS at all? All jokes aside, 9 out of 10 folks who frequent this blog can almost predict an upcoming weather event (or lack there of) better than the GFS!
if we dont cash in on some snow the next couple of weeks, unsure if we ever will
Even Clipper Mania was a bust.
I guarantee next week’s storm the rain/snow line will be near Indy.
Thanks Chris. Looking forward to the thirty odd model runs of the gfs until the end of year system. And all those who gave up hope already on the first day of winter, well, the NAM doesn’t look too bad. Though we miss out here in East TN.
Nothing to see here folks. Another year of model hope and then it pulls the rug out from under you. Was supposed to be some real artic cold in here for December and it’s been a no coat start to winter on most days. Maybe January and February will act like winter.
God you guys are so annoying
Please for the love will you guys quit being so negative… it’s ridiculous. Thank you so much for everything you do Chris, Merry Christmas to you and your family.